Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Cup Round 1: Predictions

This weekend is packed full of rugby as both the Heineken Cup and Amlin Challenge Cup kick off for the new season. 

There are 22 games in total, so I'm not going to do previews for them all as that would take hours, and quite honestly, I'm supposed to be working.  However, the games I am most looking forward to are: Toulon v Ospreys, Aviva Premiership leaders London Irish v Magners league table toppers Munster, Clermont Auvergne v Saracens and reigning champions Toulouse v Wasps, all in the Heineken Cup, and, of course, Bucuresti Oaks v my beloved Leeds Carnegie in the Amlin.  You can read my preview of that game here.

Here are my SportGuru predictions for the opening round:

Heineken Cup:

Glasgow v Newport-Gwent Dragons - Newport Gwent Dragons by 6
Northampton v Castres - Northampton by 5
Ulster v Aironi Rugby - Ulster by 9
Benetton Treviso v Leicester - Leicester by 21
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh - Cardiff by 12
Clermont Auvergne v Saracens - Saracens by 7
Leinster v Racing Metro 92 - Leinster by 3
London Irish v Munster - London Irish by 6
Scarlets v Perpignan - Perpignan by 7
Toulon v Ospreys - Toulon by 12
Bath v Biarritz - Biarritz by 9
Toulouse v Wasps - Toulouse by 16

Amlin Challenge Cup:

Newcastle v Bourgoin - Newcastle by 12
Stade Francais v Rugby Parma - Stade Francais by 16
Agen v Gloucester - Agen by 3
Brive v Petrarca - Brive by 9
Sale v Cetransa El Salvador - Sale by 18
Bucuresti v Leeds Carnegie - Leeds Carnegie by 6
Cavalieri Prato v Connacht - Connacht by 6
Exeter v Montpellier - Exeter by 9
Rovigo v La Rochelle - La Rochelle by 6
Bayonne v Harlequins - Harlequins by 5

We'll see how I get on....  What do you think?

Strictly Wooden

I didn't watch last Saturday's Strictly Come Dancing because I was out and about in Manchester.  Foolishly I forgot to record the BEEB's glittering dance show so I could cringe at Welsh rugby "star", Gavin Henson, as he creaked around the dancefloor with all the charisma of a plank of wood.

However, I'm reliably informed (by my Mum) that he was actually pretty good.  This annoys me.  In my mind, Gav glides across the dancefloor with all the skill and agility of an IKEA wardrobe.

I do intend to watch the show this weekend, so before Gav shatters my illusions with an impeccable cha cha cha, here is what I imagine what he actually looks like on the show:


Best photoshopping ever.

Creak.

Amlin Challenge Cup Preview: Bucuresti Oaks v Leeds Carnegie

Mike MacDonald takes on Bucuresti Oaks

I know this article will have limited appeal as it's a preview for a game between a cobbled together Romanian side and Leeds Carnegie.  Hardly a glamour tie.  However, I wrote this preview for Rugbynetwork and thought I might as well post it on here...

Bucuresti Oaks will be no strangers to Leeds Carnegie when the two teams clash in their opening Amlin Challenge Cup game on Saturday.

The Yorkshiremen sealed back-to-back wins against the Romanian outfit in last season’s Cup campaign, paving the way for five wins from six in all competitions from December to early January. In the same fixture last season, Leeds recorded a hard-fought 10-6 victory at a snowy Arcul de Triumf, a late Rhys Oakley try saving Carnegie’s blushes. Neil Back’s men followed up this win with a convincing 47-0 hammering of Bucuresti at Headingley Carnegie a week later.

Leeds approach this game looking for a much needed boost after recording five straight defeats in the Aviva Premiership. This matches Bucuresti’s current form of five losses from five, with an injury crisis threatening to derail their chances of securing their first win of the season. Oaks have 10 players ruled out with injury for Saturday’s clash from their squad of 28. This has forced them to draft in two replacements in line with competition regulations.

Carnegie will be without Danny Paul after he was ruled out with a rib injury. The number eight picked up the knock in his first start in nearly a year against London Irish last Saturday. Prop Phil Swainston is also out with a wrist injury and number eight Alfie To’oala is sidelined whilst he recovers from an operation to correct an adductor muscle.

Despite shipping 40 points in both of their last two league games, there is hope for Leeds. A ridiculously high penalty count was instrumental in their demise at the Majedski Stadium last Saturday, where the Exiles punished the visitors for their mistakes. However, Leeds did score two tries and the game was more hard-fought than the result suggests. It is clear that Carnegie need to tighten their defence and banish errors, especially around the ever controversial breakdown, if they are to improve their points difference. With two points scored against them for every point they notch up, it doesn’t take a mathematician to work out Leeds are giving teams at least a 15 point head start.

Carnegie have been trying to play a more attacking brand of rugby this season but they are still missing that vital cutting edge. Maybe a game against a limping Bucuresti will allow them to fine tune this game plan and return home to face Stade Français with renewed vigour and an all important win? And yet, rumours of splits in the Leeds camp does not make happy reading for Carnegie fans, and a defeat against a patched together Bucuresti side could threaten to derail Leeds’ season altogether.

However, I am positive. Leeds are renowned for being slow starters and I think a win in Romania will help to kick-start their season.

My prediction: Leeds by 6.

Heineken Cup Flashback

European Cup rugby is back with a bang this weekend with both the Heineken Cup and Amlin Challenge Cup kicking off for a new season.

I would be lying if said I wasn't a bit excited about it.  OK, if I'm honest, I cannot wait.  But will the French clubs dominate for the second year in a row?  Big-spending Biarritz and Toulouse battled out the Heineken Cup final last May whilst Toulon faced Cardiff Blues in Marseille in the second tier competition, the Blues eventually spoiling the all-French love in.

France also sealed an impressive Six Nations Grand Slam last season.  Not a bad year for our Gallic neighbours, eh?  Well, if you put the slightly embarrassing defeats by Argentina and South Africa aside...

Here are a couple of my Heineken Cup highlights from last season which sum up why I love this tournament so much.

First up, Takudzwa Ngwenya's amazing try for Biarritz in their quarter-final win over the Ospreys:

For my second choice, I almost went for a clip of Yannick Jauzion weaving his magic, but then I remembered just how much I loved this game.  The quarter-final between Leinster and Clermont Auvergne at a pulsating RDS was one of the most exciting games of rugby I have ever seen.  Enjoy.  (PS: Brock James, look away now...)

Roll on Friday night and Northampton v Castres...

Aviva Premiership Round 5: Previews and Predictions

Yes, seriously.

I think I must be getting ill.  Why?  Because I'm getting quite excited about the Ryder Cup - and I don't even like golf.  Or so I thought.  Watching a curly-haired Northern Irish boy battle it out with a tainted Tiger at soggy Celtic Manor, Wales, surprisingly looks like it's going to take over my weekend viewing. 

Well, with the big exception of tomorrow night, when I will be at Old Trafford to watch the Engage Super League Grand Final between St Helens and Wigan Warriors.  As a Leeds Rhinos fan it's difficult to support either team, so instead I'm going to support Pat Richards (Wigan) and Jon Wilkin (Saints), the game of rugby league.  And of course, beer.

Therefore, rugby union is taking somewhat of a back seat in my sporting agenda this weekend.  I'm even going to miss tonight's massive derby clash between Bath and Gloucester as I'm going to a gig.  I am recording it though, just in case it's a classic.

Anyway, here are my predictions for this week. 

I think Wasps will come away with a win under the Friday night lights of Edgeley Park, and looking at their current form I expect Bath to win at the Rec.  Quins looked efficient against Exeter in their 40-13 win last week and Newcastle were humbled by London Irish at home so I see that one going Harlequins' way.  The Exiles, currently top of the league, host bottom club Leeds at the Majedski on Saturday in a game that will probably see more one way traffic crashing over the Leeds' try line following last week's 48-6 hammering by  Leicester.  The Tigers will hope to put their injury woes to the back of their minds on their trip to Vicarage Road, where makeshift fly-half Billy Twelvetrees, or 36, needs to get the better of kicking maestro Derick Hougaard.  The Sarries number 10 kicked 55-metre drop goals for fun in last Sunday's 24-17 win over Northampton and controlled the game with ease.  Take note Northampton Saints, with a misfiring Geraghty/Myler you will probably still beat teams like Exeter with ease, but against the big boys and in the Heineken Cup you will have to solve the issues at fly-half if you are to win.  So no pressure for next week  when the HCup rolls into town then...

Sale Sharks v London Wasps: Wasps by 3
Bath v Gloucester Rugby: Bath by 9
Harlequins v Newcastle Falcons: Harlequins by 21
London Irish v Leeds Carnegie: London Irish by 26
Northampton Saints v Exeter Chiefs: Northampton Saints by 16
Saracens v Leicester Tigers: Saracens by 9

Aviva Premiership Round 4: Previews and Predictions

Laughing it up at the top of the table: Dylan Hartley

Dark clouds have been rumbling in the skies above Leeds this week heralding the start of autumn.  Today we wave goodbye to summer and welcome the onset of dark nights, muddy pitches and freezing your arse off in stadiums up and down the country.  But will the season of falling leaves and woolly hats signal a return to the tedious kick-fest we had to endure at the start of the last Premiership season?

Well, with the new laws surrounding the tackle area, hopefully not, although my favourite gap-toothed pundit, Stuart Barnes, did raise an excellent point on Rugby Club last night.  The benefit of the doubt at the breakdown is now with the attacking team which is a good thing as it promotes quicker ball and a more fluid game.  However, the rules which require the defence to stop and get back to their feet before challenging for the ball allows players on the attacking side to clear them out by flying over the top of the ruck. Will last year's fears of being caught in possession be replaced by ELVs to even it up for the defence?  For once in my life, I agree with Barnes: strong and clear refereeing is needed in this area, now more than ever.

That issue aside, last weekend we were treated to a masterclass of rugby by table-toppers Northampton.  The Saints brushed aside Bath in impressive style to remain the only unbeaten Premiership team.  Then there was the last gasp win for Wasps over rivals Leicester.  A Dave Walder inspired fightback in the second-half saw Wasps triumph in an electric game which finished 37-30 in their favour.  Exeter continued to make the step up to the Premiership look easy by recording their second win of the season, beating Newcastle 22-17.  However, on a personal level, last weekend was a massive disappointment.  Leeds slipped to a 13-0 half-time deficit at home to Saracens which put them out of contention for the rest of the match.  26-14 the final score.  I was not happy.

But what of this weekend?  As ever, here are my previews and predictions:

Saracens v Northampton
The clash of the weekend. Likely to be a bruising grudge match after Saracens won both of the crucial games against the Saints at the back end of last season to take themselves all the way to the Premiership final at Twickenham. Will Brendan Venter start Derrick Hougaard at fly-half as he did last weekend against Leeds? Saints wing Chris Ashton should be back after hobbling off against Bath, a game which saw him bag two tries. Ashton v Sarries new boy David Strettle will be the battle to watch. My prediction: Northampton by 7.

Bath Rugby v Sale. 
Bath need to tighten up on the basic mistakes they made last week and I expect them to do this against Sale, the side who engineered a thrilling late comeback against Harlequins last weekend.  Sale's away form is woeful.  The Sharks have notched up eight losses in a row and just one win, against Leeds last November, in their last 17 trips on the road. My prediction: Bath by 12.

Gloucester Rugby v London Wasps.
Gloucester are yet to splutter into life this season whilst Wasps displayed their mental toughness in their fightback against Leicester on Saturday.  Wasps have won their last five games against the cherry and whites in all competitions, but a trip to Kingsholm is never easy.  My prediction: It will be a tough game, but Wasps to win by 7.

Harlequins v Exeter Chiefs.
Quins committed rugby hari-kari last weekend at Edgeley Park, throwing away a win over Sale due to second-half indiscipline.  Conor O'Shea's men are the only side other than Leeds still searching for their first win and it will be tough against the Chiefs.  The clash between Exeter fly-half Gareth Steenson, top Premiership points scorer, and opposite number Nick Evans will test the calibre of the Chiefs' young stand-off and will be a fascinating contest to watch.  My prediction: Harlequins by 6.

Leicester Tigers v Leeds Carnegie
Is now the best chance Leeds will get to take the scalp of the Champions?  The Tigers look to be lacking a bit of cohesion this term but they are still dangerous in attack and Leeds will do well to contain them.  Carnegie are making yet another slow start to the season and are rock bottom of the table with only one consolitary bonus point from the 22-21 loss at Gloucester.  My prediction: Leicester by 18.

Newcastle Falcons v London Irish
Kingston Park is a tough place to go as the nights start drawing in, but the Exiles will make the trip in buoyant mood after beating Gloucester with relative ease last week.  Again, I see this game being a battle of the fly-halves: Jimmy Gopperth, named at 10 in last year's Opta team of the year, versus nearly-man Ryan Lamb.  My prediction: London Irish by 9.

Aviva Premiership Round 3: Previews and Predictions

Skivington: tall

I'm not very good at this results predictions malarkey.  I've only got a poor 41.67% success rate after round two, but, undeterred I'm giving it another shot this week.  As D:Ream once said, things can only get better, right?

Round three's standout game is Wasps v Leicester, a battle of the arch-rivals who have won 15 Premiership titles between them.  The extra spice this year comes in the form of George Skivington, the towering second-row who made the switch from Adams Park to Welford Road this summer.  The 27-year-old England Saxons skipper is only the third player to make the move from Wasps to rivals Leicester.  Quelle controversy.

Leicester were almost handed their arses on a plate by new boys Exeter last Saturday after trailing 20-10 at half-time.  Luckily for the champions their class shone through in the final quarter to seal a 37-27 win.  A real shame for the Chiefs and a shock to the system for Richard Cockerill's men.  Likewise, Wasps came off second best against Newcastle, the Falcons holding their visitors to a scoreless second half to run out 29-17 winners.  Even though this weekend's fixture is a home tie for Wasps, Shaun Edwards' men need to drastically improve their shoddy defensive effort from last week if they are to take any league points from the Tigers.  I'm not sure they can do it.

The other big game of the round is tonight at Franklins Gardens.  Northampton Saints host Bath in a top-of-the table clash between the two remaining unbeaten sides in the league.  It's a tough one to call, but I'm going for a home win.  Why?  Because I like Dylan Hartley.

Elsewhere, I'm mentally preparing myself for the Leeds v Saracens game on Sunday.  Last Saturday's 22-21 loss at Gloucester was a bitter pill to swallow as a Leeds fan, but unless coach Neil Back has been employing some kind of black magic in the bowels of Headingley Carnegie, I can't see us beating Saffacens this weekend.  However, Christian Lewis-Pratt and James Tincknell both had a very good game against the cherry and whites, so there are still reasons for me to be cheerful.

Here are my predictions:

Northampton Saints v Bath Rugby:  Northampton by 5.
Sale Sharks v Harlequins:  Harlequins by 6.
Exeter Chiefs v Newcastle Falcons:  Exeter Chiefs by 6.
London Wasps v Leicester Tigers: Leicester Tigers by 10.
Leeds Carnegie v Saracens:  Saracens by 12.
London Irish v Gloucester Rugby:  London Irish by 9.