Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Cup Round 1: Predictions

This weekend is packed full of rugby as both the Heineken Cup and Amlin Challenge Cup kick off for the new season. 

There are 22 games in total, so I'm not going to do previews for them all as that would take hours, and quite honestly, I'm supposed to be working.  However, the games I am most looking forward to are: Toulon v Ospreys, Aviva Premiership leaders London Irish v Magners league table toppers Munster, Clermont Auvergne v Saracens and reigning champions Toulouse v Wasps, all in the Heineken Cup, and, of course, Bucuresti Oaks v my beloved Leeds Carnegie in the Amlin.  You can read my preview of that game here.

Here are my SportGuru predictions for the opening round:

Heineken Cup:

Glasgow v Newport-Gwent Dragons - Newport Gwent Dragons by 6
Northampton v Castres - Northampton by 5
Ulster v Aironi Rugby - Ulster by 9
Benetton Treviso v Leicester - Leicester by 21
Cardiff Blues v Edinburgh - Cardiff by 12
Clermont Auvergne v Saracens - Saracens by 7
Leinster v Racing Metro 92 - Leinster by 3
London Irish v Munster - London Irish by 6
Scarlets v Perpignan - Perpignan by 7
Toulon v Ospreys - Toulon by 12
Bath v Biarritz - Biarritz by 9
Toulouse v Wasps - Toulouse by 16

Amlin Challenge Cup:

Newcastle v Bourgoin - Newcastle by 12
Stade Francais v Rugby Parma - Stade Francais by 16
Agen v Gloucester - Agen by 3
Brive v Petrarca - Brive by 9
Sale v Cetransa El Salvador - Sale by 18
Bucuresti v Leeds Carnegie - Leeds Carnegie by 6
Cavalieri Prato v Connacht - Connacht by 6
Exeter v Montpellier - Exeter by 9
Rovigo v La Rochelle - La Rochelle by 6
Bayonne v Harlequins - Harlequins by 5

We'll see how I get on....  What do you think?

Amlin Challenge Cup Preview: Bucuresti Oaks v Leeds Carnegie

Mike MacDonald takes on Bucuresti Oaks

I know this article will have limited appeal as it's a preview for a game between a cobbled together Romanian side and Leeds Carnegie.  Hardly a glamour tie.  However, I wrote this preview for Rugbynetwork and thought I might as well post it on here...

Bucuresti Oaks will be no strangers to Leeds Carnegie when the two teams clash in their opening Amlin Challenge Cup game on Saturday.

The Yorkshiremen sealed back-to-back wins against the Romanian outfit in last season’s Cup campaign, paving the way for five wins from six in all competitions from December to early January. In the same fixture last season, Leeds recorded a hard-fought 10-6 victory at a snowy Arcul de Triumf, a late Rhys Oakley try saving Carnegie’s blushes. Neil Back’s men followed up this win with a convincing 47-0 hammering of Bucuresti at Headingley Carnegie a week later.

Leeds approach this game looking for a much needed boost after recording five straight defeats in the Aviva Premiership. This matches Bucuresti’s current form of five losses from five, with an injury crisis threatening to derail their chances of securing their first win of the season. Oaks have 10 players ruled out with injury for Saturday’s clash from their squad of 28. This has forced them to draft in two replacements in line with competition regulations.

Carnegie will be without Danny Paul after he was ruled out with a rib injury. The number eight picked up the knock in his first start in nearly a year against London Irish last Saturday. Prop Phil Swainston is also out with a wrist injury and number eight Alfie To’oala is sidelined whilst he recovers from an operation to correct an adductor muscle.

Despite shipping 40 points in both of their last two league games, there is hope for Leeds. A ridiculously high penalty count was instrumental in their demise at the Majedski Stadium last Saturday, where the Exiles punished the visitors for their mistakes. However, Leeds did score two tries and the game was more hard-fought than the result suggests. It is clear that Carnegie need to tighten their defence and banish errors, especially around the ever controversial breakdown, if they are to improve their points difference. With two points scored against them for every point they notch up, it doesn’t take a mathematician to work out Leeds are giving teams at least a 15 point head start.

Carnegie have been trying to play a more attacking brand of rugby this season but they are still missing that vital cutting edge. Maybe a game against a limping Bucuresti will allow them to fine tune this game plan and return home to face Stade Français with renewed vigour and an all important win? And yet, rumours of splits in the Leeds camp does not make happy reading for Carnegie fans, and a defeat against a patched together Bucuresti side could threaten to derail Leeds’ season altogether.

However, I am positive. Leeds are renowned for being slow starters and I think a win in Romania will help to kick-start their season.

My prediction: Leeds by 6.

Heineken & Amlin Cup Final Previews and Predictions

European Cup rugby is set to reach its climax in both the Heineken and Amlin Challenge Cup this weekend. 

Biarritz will face Toulouse in the Heineken Cup Final in Paris on Saturday, and Sunday will see Cardiff Blues, the only non-French finalist, do battle with Toulon in Marseille.

French teams have dominated the Heineken Cup this year, with the Irish contingent, champions Leinster and two-time winners Munster, dumped out in the semi-finals.

But why have the French dominated in 2009/10? 

Along with cup rugby success, France scooped an impressive Six Nations Grand Slam this season. 

Fingers have been pointed towards the cash being splashed in the French Top 14, although a salary cap is being brought in next year. 

But is this the only reason for their success?  French teams start their season a month before the Guinness Premiership and Magners league, and whilst GP and Celtic teams are warming up in pre-season training, they are gaining match fitness and that elusive edge.

Or is it down to the rigours of a British and Irish Lions tour last summer taking it out of the top players from the home nations before the start of this season?

Simply put, French teams could just be better.  But with millions more Euros to spend on players, who wouldn't be?

But never mind all that - we are set for some cracking finals this weekend.  Here are my previews and predictions:

Biarritz v Toulouse

Three time winners Toulouse play their third all French Heineken Cup final when they face Biarritz on Saturday.

Toulouse, who play their sixth final this weekend, last won this competition in 2004/05 when they pipped Stade Francais to the prize after extra time at Murrayfield.  Biarritz have only been to one final, losing 16-13 to Munster at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium in the following year.  The last time Toulouse has the silverware in their sights was in the 2007/08 season, falling to Munster, the Irish giants claiming the cup in a close 16-13 win.

But what of this year?  At times, both these sides have played some sublime rugby, no more so than the dazzling Yannick Jauzion of Toulouse.

Centre Jauzion has caused commentators to wax lyrical about his vision and glittering playmaking.  But Toulouse are by no means a one man team.

France skipper Thierry Dusautoir is back, and will be looking to add a Heineken Cup winners' medal to his collection, after missing out with Biarritz in 2006 and Toulouse in 2008.  Wing Cedric Heymans could feature in his sixth Heineken final, while four other Toulouse players - hooker William Servat, prop Jean-Baptiste Poux and flanker Jean Bouilhou - could play in their fifth, along with a certain Mr Jauzion.

Biarritz also have plenty of stars on display.  Hard man Imanol Harinordoquy, who played the semi-final at number eight with a broken nose and rib injury, is expected to start.  Also possibly lining up for the Basque team is a trio of England internationals - full-back Iain Balshaw, centre Ayoola Erinle and flanker Magnus Lund.  However, centre Damien Traille is out with a broken arm.

Toulouse have to be the favourites ahead of this game due to their European Cup pedigree.  Toulouse ended the Top 14 season in 4th, whilst rivals Biarrtiz only managed 7th place.  Add to that the fact that Toulouse swatted aside rugby giants Stade Francais and champions Leinster in the knockout stages and they are looking formidable.  Will they show up Biarritz's occasionally fragile defence?

My prediction: It should be a cracker.  Toulouse to win by 6.

Cardiff Blues v Toulon
Cardiff Blues are taking their bid to become the first Welsh side to win a European trophy all the way to the final at Marseille's Stade Velodrome on Sunday.

Claiming their first silverware won't be an easy task for the Blues, as they face a star-studded Toulon, the team who finished second in the French Top 14 this season.

Of course, all eyes will be on Toulon's Jonny Wilkinson, Felipe Contepomi, Sonny Bill Williams and Tana Umaga - but don't write off the Blues.

The Welsh side have been boosted by the return of scrum-half Richie Rees and have done well on their travels this year.

And Cardiff might find themselves with a few more fans for the day - although they will be wearing red.  If the Blues win, Wales will gain a fourth Heineken Cup place which will go to the Scarlets.

However, if Toulon triumph, Gloucester will take the 24th and final spot.

My prediction:  I can't see Cardiff out muscling Toulon in the sunny south of France.  Toulon to win by 12.

But what do you think?