Six Nations and LV= Cup Previews and Predictions

The Six Nations kicks off this weekend, and there is plenty more rugby in the LV= Cup.  Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend.

The Six Nations

Ireland v Italy
2009 Grand Slam champions Ireland play wooden spoon winners Italy in the opening clash of the tournament.  Italy have leaked an average of 29 points per game since this time last year, and with Ireland's sizzling backline of stars I can't see this changing on Saturday.  Italy has a strong scrum containing Castrogiavanni, Del Fava, Bortelami and Bergamasco, although the loss of World class eight man Sergio Parisse is huge.  Despite this Italy will look to target the perceived weakness in Ireland's front row, and Cian Healy will have to scrummage for his life.  Ronan O'Gara is back in the 10 jersey for Ireland due to an injury to Jonny Sexton, and Brian O'Driscoll's centre partner from Leinster, Gordon D'Arcy, is also named in the starting XV.  With Italy's backline lacking in spark, Ireland will walk this game.

My prediction:  Ireland by 23.

England v Wales
A new look England play Wales in a match that celebrates a centenary of matches between the countries at Twickenham.  Riki Flutey and Mathew Tait return and form yet another centre combination, whilst Delon Armitage starts at full back.  Nick Easter is back at 8, and Foden and uncapped prop Dan Cole appear on the bench.  Compared with November's team, on paper this version of England has a lot more flair.  Wales have an experienced pack which includes Lions props of Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins.  Shane Williams, another Lions man, is out on the wing, whilst Jamie Roberts will look to punch holes in England's defence.  Mike Phillips and Dwayne Peel are side lined due to injury which is a big loss to Wales coach Warren Gatland.  Both sides are under pressure after lacklustre performances in November,

My prediction:  England to win by 6.

Scotland v France
Defence is the keyword for Scotland who will look to dampen the French attack as they did in their 9-8 victory over Australia in November.  The boot of Chris Paterson and the dogged determination of the forwards are crucial if Scotland are to stand a chance of turning over France.  Imanol Harinordoquy is a big danger man for the visitors, both at the line-out and in the loose.  Sebastian Chabal, Fabien Barcella and Damien Traille are all injured and will miss the game, and scrum-half Jean-Baptiste Elissalde replaces the banned Julien Dupuy. Scotland will be hoping that the brothers Lamont will step up and score tries and get their tournament off to a flier.

My prediction:  France to win by 12.
 

 
LV= Cup
 
Ospreys v Leeds Carnegie
The Ospreys were crushed 40-19 by the Dragons last week on the back of their Heineken Cup win over Leicester.  Leeds were also defeated last weekend at Headingley by Saracens, with Leeds' woeful home form continuing after their torrid 18-9 Amlin Cup defeat by Bourgoin.  Unlike the Ospreys, Leeds aren't affected by international call ups, but with their current form I can't see Leeds taking anything from this game.

My prediction:  Ospreys by 12.
 
Bath v Sale
Bath lost 27-11 to Leicester in the last round, and Sale lost 20-14 at home to Northampton.  Both of these teams look unlikely to progress in this competition, both sitting third in their respective pools.  Bath have ground out a few results with home advantage, whilst Sale's performances away from home have been woeful this season.

My prediction:  Bath to win by 7.

Northampton v Leicester
Pool 1 leaders Leicester travel to Franklins Gardens to play the only English team remaining in the Heineken Cup.  Last week the Tigers dispatched Bath at Welford Road 27-11 with a strong second string side, whilst the Saints beat Sale 20-14 away from home.  With Foden, Lawes and Hartley missing for Northampton and Moody, Flood, Deacon and Cole missing for the Tigers, the second strings will battle it out again.

My prediction:  Leicester to win by 9.

Scarlets v Cardiff Blues
Both teams are top of their respective pools, and both teams come into this game on the back of a win in the last round.  The Blues demolished Newcastle 45-24 and ran in six tries, whilst the Scarlets beat Wasps 18-13 away at Adams Park.  Both sides will be stripped of their Welsh stars and step out a shadow of the sides that both bowed out of the Heineken Cup.  Separated by one place in the Magners League it is a tough one to call, but I think the Scarlets will edge it.

My prediction:  Scarlets to win by 5.

Worcester v London Irish
When these teams last met in the Guinness Premiership on 5 December at the Madejski Stadium, the result was a 16-16 draw.  Both teams have won one game from three in this competition.  Last week, Irish lost at 16-13 home to Harlequins whilst Worcester were defeated 17-5 by Gloucester at Kingsholm.  The Exiles will miss the Armitage brothers whilst Worcester will be without Matt Mullen and Alex Grove.

My prediction:  Another draw.

Harlequins v Gloucester
Harlequins have been the Kings of inconsistency this season.  They failed to win a single pool game in the Heineken Cup but have shown flashes of brilliance in the Guinness Premiership.  Sitting second behind Cardiff Blues in their LV= Cup pool, last week Harlequins beat London Irish away from home.  Gloucester lie second in their pool after beating Worcester 17-5 last weekend.  When they met in the Guinness Premiership on 28 November, Harlequins' Danny Care and Nick Evans ran riot and led Quins to an impressive 35-29 victory.  Care is on England duty, but I think Quins will win again.

My prediction:  Harlequins by 8.

Newcastle v Wasps
When these side last met in the Guinness Premiership at Adams Park Newcastle pulled off a shock 12-6 victory.  This was thanks to the Falcons dominance at the scrum, as Carl Hayman and John Golding demolished the Wasps' pack.  Last weekend Wasps suffered against the Scarlets, losing 18-13 at home.  Newcastle also suffered a defeat away to the Cardiff Blues.  With psychological advantage after their last meeting, I think Newcastle will win again.

My prediction:  Newcastle to win by 6.

Saracens v Newport Gwent Dragons
Saracens won 28-5 against Leeds Carnegie in the last round, and are second in their pool on points difference.  The Dragons beat the Ospreys 40-19 last weekend and also lie second in their pool.  The Dragons' form in the Magners League has been inconsistent as they have won five of their ten matches.  Saracens are second in the Guinness Premiership, one point behind leaders Leicester with a game in hand.  Based on consistency of performances, I'm tipping Saracens to win.

My prediction:  Saracens by 11.

So what do you think?  Have I got my predictions right this week?

Weekend Predictions: LV= Cup

This weekend sees the return of the LV= Cup, aka the Anglo-Welsh Cup.  This tournament has been slated by many as an unworthy addition to an already packed fixture list, but I think it can give clubs the opportunity to try out new combinations and blood younger players in a relatively unpressurized competition.  With teams recovering from last weekend's European action and with players unavailable due to international duty, how will the teams face up this week?

Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend's matches:

Leeds Carnegie v Saracens
Last weekend saw Leeds Carnegie crash out of the Amlin Challenge Cup after a dire 18-9 home defeat against pool leaders Bourgoin in what was a winner takes all clash.  Leeds now have their eyes firmly on their main goal of Guinness Premiership survival, so it's no great surprise that the team facing Saracens this weekend is a mixture of youth (in the form of 19 year old fly-half Joe Ford and the newly named England under 20 captain, Jacob Rowan), and experience (including a first Leeds outing for former England hooker Andy Titterall).  Saracens beat Super Jonny's Toulon before cruising past Rovigo in a 56-8 away victory last Saturday, and despite a couple of slip ups in the Guinness Premiership their form remains strong.  The question is whether Sarries will take an almost full strength team to try and secure progression, or if like Leeds they're really not too bothered.  I think they'll go for the jugular in their quest for silverware.

My prediction: Saracens to win by 17.

Leicester v Bath
Leicester Tigers crashed out of the Heineken Cup last weekend, but the Guinness Premiership supremos are looking to bounce back against a Bath side who are struggling through their most lacklustre season in years.  The Tigers team for this fixture isn't a bad B team, which shows the quality and strength and depth throughout the squad.  With the likes of Tuilagi, Mauger, Matt Smith and Sam Vesty in the backline, along with a few fresh faces on the bench and I think Bath will have their work cut out at Welford Road, especially as they are fielding a batch of unusual suspects in their starting XV.  The Tigers are unbeaten in their last 26 games at Welford Road, and Bath last won there on 29 November 2003 whilst their last victory away from home came against Guinness Premiership strugglers Leeds on 2 January.  When they're playing at home, it's a brave person who doesn't back the Tigers.

My prediction: Leicester to win by 12.

Newport-Gwent Dragons v Ospreys
The Ospreys have Adam Jones, Shane Williams, Kristian Phillips and Tom Prydie available for this fixture, whilst the Dragons have Dan Lydiate available after all these players were released by Wales for this weekend.  Last weekend the Ospreys beat Leicester 17-12 at home to secure their progression in the Heineken Cup, and whilst the Welsh outfit has lost their last four matches in the LV= Cup they have won six out of the last seven games over their fellow Welsh regions.  The Ospreys' victory over Leicester was marred by the controversy involving sixteen Ospreys trotting round the pitch at the same time, but that's for the lawyers to battle out now.  The Dragons have lost their last six games across all competitions since their Magners league victory over Leinster on 6 December, therefore based on current form it looks likely to be an away win.

My prediction:  Ospreys to win by 8.

Sale v Northampton
Northampton are the only English side through to the knock out stages of the Heineken Cup, and with their excellent position in the Guinness Premiership they can be forgiven in fielding a weakened team for this match despite being op of their pool.  However they still have Fernandez Lobbe captaining from the front as Dylan Hartley is away on England duty, Chris Ashton (the GP top try scorer) is in the starting line up after being released by England, and Euan Murray also plays.  Not bad.  Sale's failure to progress in the Heineken Cup led their Director of Rugby, Kingsley Jones to announce that he selected his strongest available side for this game.  Despite Charlie Hodgson marshalling the troops from ten, Sale's centre pairing of Bishop and Kennedy lacks experience but the pack looks quite strong.  Sale have only won one of their last four games, but with Northampton riding on the crest of a wave, (despite their loss at Munster ending their run of ten consecutive victories last weekend), I think the Saints will march to a win.

My prediction: Northampton by 5.

Gloucester v Worcester
Gloucester's Paul Doran-Jones and Luke Narraway have been called up to the England Saxons meaning they are likely to be absent for this game, which is good news for Worcester Warriors coach Mike Ruddock who is targeting progression in this competition.  Ruddock said: "We would like to do well in this competition. We will pick a strong panel, although what is now becoming evident is that the success we have had in bringing some players through to international level means we will be without a number of them for Saturday."  He is of course talking about Matt Mullen who has been called up by Martin Johnson, and Alex Grove who is in Scotland.  England sevens star Chris Cracknell will make his first start in a Worcester shirt after playing a few games on loan at Birmingham and Solihull to get some match time.  Gloucester won their last Heineken Cup game away at the Dragons last weekend 32-23, whilst Worcester lost 8-3 in a tight affair at Montpellier.

My prediction:  Gloucester to win by 8.


Wasps v Scarlets
Hooker Matthew Rees has been released by Wales and is likely to start in a Scarlets side who won their last two Heineken Cup fixtures (20-17 away to Brive and a scorching comeback to win 31-22 against London Irish).  Both the Scarlets and Wasps sit at the top of their respective groups and no doubt both will be aiming for the win to secure progression in the competition.  Wasps lost 19-17 last weekend to the dreadfully dull current incarnation of Racing Metro, who seemed intent on hoofing the ball whenever possible.  Still, the Parisian team won so I guess they're not going to complain.  Prior to that defeat, Wasps routed Roma to the tune of 50-16 which came on the back of two losses in the Guinness Premiership.  This looks like it will be a close fixture especially as international call ups affect both teams.

My prediction:  Wasps to win by 6.


Cardiff Blues v Newcastle
Heineken Cup parachutees, the Blues, take on Newcastle in a dress rehearsal for the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter final at Newcastle's Kingston Park.  Tom Shanklin and Sam Warburton have both been released by Wales for this fixture, with Wales coach Warren Gatland keen for Shanklin to get some game time before Wales' Six Nations opener against England on 6 February.  Last weekend the Blues demolished Harlequins 45-20 at the Stoop whilst Newcastle beat Petrarca 20-3 at home.  This weekend Newcastle coach Steve Bates is ringing the changes and likely to name a younger side, but with Carl Hayman up front the task facing the Blues forwards will be a daunting one.

My prediction: Cardiff to win by 10.

London Irish v Harlequins
London Irish suffered heartbreak last weekend when their 11-11 draw with Leinster saw them slip out of the Heineken Cup, with coach Toby Booth left to rue their earlier performances against the Scarlets.  Harlequins failed to win any of their Heineken Cup group games but they have climbed to seventh in the Guinness Premiership whilst London Irish currently sit in fourth.  With international call ups robbing both teams of some of their stars this game is likely to be short on razzamatazz.

My prediction:  London Irish to win by 7.

So do you agree with my predictions for this week?  Please let me know what you think.

Leeds Tame the Tiger Cubs

LV= Cup First Round
Leeds Carnegie 28 - 17 Leicester

The Absolutely Worthless Cup, the Anglo-Welsh Cup or to give it its proper title the LV= Cup, is seen by many as an unwelcome addition to a season filled with fixtures.  If any team believes this then I'm sure it's the Leicester Tigers.  With the Guinness Premiership, Heineken Cup and their high profile match against South Africa to concern themselves with it was no surprise that the Tigers fielded a bunch of cubs against Leeds Carnegie, especially at a time when the majority of their first team is either away with the England squad or annoying the rehabilitation team. Well I say they fielded a team of cubs and it is mostly true, although Ben Kay did his best to increase the average age of the team by ten years.

The Tigers sharpen their claws

The Leeds twenty two was a mixture of youth and experience, academy players and a smattering of first team talent.  However it was the teenage Tigers that started the brightest.  In the opening ten minutes they passed the ball well and pressurised the Leeds line.  Tigers scrum-half James Grindal almost replicated the guile of Wallabies' scrum-half Will Genia's try against England yesterday, when he plucked the ball from the breakdown five metres from the try line and almost had enough space to dart around the fringe and touch down.  Luckily the Leeds defence held strong, and not long after debutant fly-half Joe Ford was able to put the first points on the scoreboard with a coolly taken kick from forty metres when Leicester were penalised at the scrum.  Ford exchanged kicks with his younger brother George who was playing ten for Leicester, leaving the score with Leeds 6-3 up after sixteen minutes.

Both sides were playing very positive rugby, and Scott Mathie had an excellent game as starting scrum-half with his vision from the base of the scrum leading to the first Leeds try.  The flowing locks of the nippy South African were given an airing when he carved out an arcing run, before offloading to an athletic Rhys Oakley who timed his pass perfectly to put Ford in at the corner.  11-3 after Ford pushed the conversion across the face of the posts.

Leicester weren't convincing at the line out and throughout the first half they were consistently pinged at the breakdown.  With ten minutes remaining in the first half Leeds scored an excellent team try.  They worked the ball out wide though several sets of hands until it reached Scott Armstrong on the wing who scorched over for an impressive score.  Joe Ford slotted the conversion to take the score to 18-3.

In a final flourish to the first half, Scott Mathie took a quick tap penalty deep inside the Leicester twenty two, leaving the entire Tigers side frozen like statues as he raced under the posts.  Ford easily converted the score in front of the posts to end the half on 25-3.


The second half began and once again the it was the youthful Tigers that stormed out the blocks and played some free-flowing rugby to pressurise the Leeds line.  Happily the Leeds defence held strong again, although not for long as Alex Moreno was sent for a ten minute rest in the sin bin after repeatedly getting penalised.  Leicester took advantage of the extra man as they drove over for their first try.  George Ford added the conversion.  25-10 to Leeds.

Leeds soon extended their lead once again as Leicester were penalised for holding on in front of the posts.  Joe Ford kicked the points.  28-10 to Leeds.

Another free kick won at the scrum

At twenty two minutes to go, Big Mac aka Mike MacDonald took to the field for the first time this season just before the Leeds sin-bin fitted a revolving door:  Moreno's ten minutes lapsed just as Calum Clark was yellow-carded for slowing the release of the ball.  If I'm honest from where I was standing it looked like Clark was playing the ball on his feet, but not according to referee Sean Davey.  In fact, I think Davey must have put his contact lenses in the wrong way round at half time, as the next ten minutes saw him miss a whole host of Leicester knock ons and started to gift the Midlands side a series of mystery penalties. 

Unsurprisingly this led to a period of pressure from the Tigers.  Try scoring hero from Friday night's game against South Africa, Lucas Amorosino came close to scoring a try, before offloading to Ben Kay who nearly powered over.  In the end the Leeds scrum disintegrated and a Henry Paul missed tackle allowed Tigers wing Will Hurrell to force his way over next to the posts.  George Ford converted with the final score of the game to take the total to 28-17.


In conclusion...
There are quite a few positives for Leeds to take out of this game, along with a couple of yellow-coloured negatives.  Fly-half Joe Ford linked up well with Scott Mathie and displayed his skills with some solid place kicking and good tactical awareness which won him the man of the match award.  Mathie turned in a sparky and impressive performance at fly half and helped the young fly-half in bossing the game - maybe mentor Andy Gomersall has been rubbing off on him - although hopefully not literally...

Apart from his sin-binning I thought that Calum Clark had a good game, and once again Leeds were excellent at the breakdown.  Bad news for Leeds was the early injury to hooker Phil Nilsen, which is worrying as there is little cover at number two with Rawlinson and Freer recovering from injury.

Overall it was a much more convincing performance from an improving Leeds Carnegie side.  I know the Tigers fielded a team of youngsters but Leeds can only play the team put out in front of them.  Even though the LV= Cup might be seen as the equivalent of the Johnstones Paints trophy in the footballing world for the scant amount of prestige it holds, on the plus side today it allowed Leeds to try a few combinations out, blood a few youngsters and as much as I hate to say it, build some winning momentum for when the serious business of the Guinness Premiership resumes in two weekend's time.