Six Nations Week 5: Previews and Predictions

Wales v Italy

Wales haven't been firing in this tournament and their line out and scrum have been less than effective.  However the return of scrum-half Mike Phillips and loosehead Gethin Jenkins is a boon for coach Warren Gatland, and 18-year old Tom Prydie becomes both the youngest man to play for Wales and the youngest ever to play in the Six Nations when he starts on the wing.  Whoever loses this match will be vying for the wooden spoon with Scotland, and the losers will take home the booby prize if Scotland overturn the Irish in the final game to be played at Croke Park. 

Italy have been hit by three injuries: Centre Andrea Masi, lock Carlo Del Fava and flanker Paul Derbyshire are all out.  Despite Italy's win against Scotland and rallying last 15 minutes against France, Nick Mallet's men won't have enough to get past Wales at a pulsating Millennium Stadium.

My prediction:  Wales by 18.


Ireland v Scotland

Declan Kidney and his Ireland team only have an outside chance of winning the championship, and that relies on England tripping up their rivals France later on in Paris.  But the Triple Crown is there for the taking, and if Ireland beat Andy Robinson's Scotland they will notch up their fifth home nations clean sweep in seven years.

The Scots are propping up the table with a solitary point, courtesy of their tedious draw against England last weekend.  With Ireland gunning for the prize to crown their final match at Croke Park and Scotland's try-scoring drought, I can only see this game going one way.

My prediction:  Ireland by 12.


France v England

A revamped England will run out in Paris in the tournament finale, but I think favourites France will pack too much of a punch for the visitors.  Ben Foden and Chris Ashton, team mates at Northampton, will hopefully inject some pace and cutting edge into the England backline.  We know their link-up play is in fine form after watching them in the Guinness Premiership and Heineken Cup this season.  Lewis Moody returns from a brief stint on the bench, and he will lead out England in the absence of Steve Borthwick.  Mike Tindall starts in the centre, probably to try and contain the rampaging Mathieu Bastereaud. 

France are oozing class in every position at the moment.  Morgan Parra, Imanol Harinordoquy and Clement Poitreneaud are but three of their top class players in a team dripping with talent.  The French have been firing this Six Nations, and they will be too much for Martin Johnson's stuttering England team.

My prediction:  France to win by 16.

Six Nations Week 2: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

The Good:

The Wales v Scotland game.  An incredible last five minutes in a match with more twists than one of Adam Jones' bouncing ringlets.

Adam Jones: curly wurly

Dan Parks: back from the wilderness (or Glasgow in his case).

Shane Williams.  The man who turned the match for Wales.  He showed great skill to put Lee Byrne in for a try, calmly caught a tricky high ball under pressure when Scotland were dominating, and he bagged the winning score to boot.

An excellent all round game for France.  Well, with the exception of their line-out.  A great game for France's Mathieu Bastereuad, Yannick Jauzion and Morgan Parra to name but three.

Italy, who matched England and made a real game of it.  Six Nations whipping boys they are not.  A special mention to Italy number eight and man of the match Alessandro Mani.  Who needs Sergio Parisse?  Luke McClean also had a good game at full-back for the Azzurri.

Jonny Wilkinson, who passed the 500 point mark in the Six Nations competition, and used his experience to stretch England's lead near to the death.

The Bad:

Scotland commiting rugby hari kari against Wales in the last 10 minutes.  Two sin binnings for the Scots and 17 points to Wales.  Does that remind you of anyone, Alun Wyn Jones?  Then again, Scotland's loss was due in great part to...

Referee George Clancy, who allowed an extra passage of play in the Wales v Scotland game even though the clock had already reached 80 minutes.  With the teams tied on 24-24, Shane Williams scorched over the try line for Wales.  If it were a game of football, Wales would be Manchester United.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson:  mildly irritated.

Ireland's performance against France - or lack of it.  Last week Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team as "mediocre" in their 29-11 win over Italy.  This weekend in defeat, he downgraded that to "poor".  Personally, I'd have gone for "abysmal".

Yannick Jauzion crosses the line for France

France's faultering lineout.  The only negative in their 33-10 victory over Ireland.

England kicking the ball away aimlessly at almost every opportunity.  Martin Johnson's men looked about as threatening as a bunch of bumbling marshmallows during large parts of the game against Italy.  Oh and how England totally failed to ram home their advantage when Castro was in the bin completely mystified me.  Another very disappointing England performance.  There's plenty for them to work on.  Again.

Dylan Hartley's line-out throwing.  Very poor.  I found myself being thankful when Steve Thompson stomped onto the pitch.  Yes, it was that bad.

The Ugly:

Scotland's Thom Evans being stretchered off the pitch and subsequently undergoing neck surgery.  Get well soon Thom.

Jerry Flannery's impromptu 'can-can' kick on Alexis Pallison. France scrum-half Morgan Parra is no doubt thrilled that Flannery backed him up after Parra claimed Ireland "cheat every weekend".

Six Nations Top Trumps: Italy

“Our objective is to be competitive and keep the margins down, within 15 points. We’d like to win every game, but that’s where Italian rugby is at the moment," said Italy coach Nick Mallet.

Italy will look to improve their finishing position in the Six Nations competition this year and avoid taking home the wooden spoon yet again.  Another dismal showing in this year's tournament will pile the pressure on Mallet, who took over the role as head coach in 2007.  Since his involvement, the Azzurri have only won one game in two Six Nations tournaments and have conceded an average of 26 points a game.  In November, Italy beat Samoa 24-6 but unsurprisingly lost to the rugby super powers of South Africa and New Zealand.  Still, there are glimmers of hope in the squad of Italian stallions, but it's going to be a tough ask for Italy to finish any higher than sixth this year.

Here are my ratings:

Scrum: 70/100.
The scrum is the main area of strength for Italy, with Leicester's Samson-esque Martin Castrogiavanni fit and named in the squad to face Ireland on February 6.  Strength is the keyword, as the Italian pack will also feature Mauro Bergamasco, Carlo del Fava and Marco Bortelami.  There is one glaring omission however: Sergio Parisse, the Stade Français number eight and arguably the best eight man in the world.  Parisse will miss the entire tournament with a knee injury which is a massive blow for Italy.

Line-Out: 55/100.
Italy need to win the vast majority of their set piece play to build pressure on their opposition, especially as the Italian backline isn't exactly electrifying.

Attacking Flair: 24/100.
Zzzzzzzzz.  Don't get me wrong, Italy's backs will have a go, but in the recent past they generally ended up drawing a blank.  Oh, and a flanker playing at scrum-half is a BAD idea Mr. Mallet - just in case you're thinking of repeating last year's torrid Mauro Bergamasco experiment.  He was so bad he made England's Ugo Monye look like an accomplished international full back.  Yes, really.

Defence:  26/100.
Let's look at the stats.  I have to say they're not pretty.  Since the start of last year's Six Nations, Italy have played 11 games, won one, and conceded and average of 29 points per game.  In the ten games they lost, the points difference was an average of 22.  By giving teams a 20 point head start, Italy are going to struggle to grasp any victory.  Maybe that's why Nick Mallet is realistically targeting a 15 point margin for this year's tournament.

Stadium: 61/100.
Stadio Flaminio.  Capacity 42,000.

Snore Factor: 76/100.
The uplifting Italian national anthem and Rome's bright cobalt blue skies enliven the rugby spectating experience when Italy play at home.  When they're playing away, they'll still have their never ending anthem but other than that they're a bit dull.  Chances of their opposition running in a rake of tries is high though, which should stop the crowd from dozing off.

Phwoargh Factor: 90/100.
Brothers Mauro and Mirco Bergamasco both featured in this year's Dieux Du Stade calendar and they are sort of good looking.  However, the new Dolce and Gabbana campaign featuring several of the Italian team kicked the Bergamasco brother's efforts well and truly into touch.  Behold:

Sergio Parisse, Denis Dallan, Ezio Galon, Andrea Masi and Gonzalo Canale as you've never seen them before.

Scandal Potential: 12/100.
Low.  I really can't think of anything particularly scandalous with the Italian team.  Well, maybe apart from the pants they're wearing in the above picture.

As for the final standings:


Last season: 6th.
Prediction for this season: 6th.