Guinness Premiership Semi-Finals: Previews & Predictions

The run up to the Guinness Premiership semi-finals has been packed with more drama than an over the top soap opera.

Saracens overturned both Northampton and Leicester on the road in the last two rounds, crushing both clubs' hopes of an unbeaten home campaign in the league.

In the process, Sarries riled the Saints by singing and celebrating too loudly - much to the annoyance of Northampton skipper Dylan Hartley.

And then it was the turn of Brendan Venter, Saracens director of rugby, who caused a furore when he allegedly pushed a female fan during the game at Welford Road.  He swiftly followed this up by criticising Martin Johnson's selections for the England tour to Australia, apparently vexed that none of his squad were being given a plane ticket down under.

Elsewhere, Bath continued their amazing run of form when they swatted aside Leeds Carnegie to seal their semi-final spot.  Richard Cockerill's Leicester will be back to face them after Sarries put them to the sword.

As semi-finals go, these are really tough to call.  Here goes nothing.

Leicester Tigers v Bath Rugby

It is ominous for Bath that their only loss in their last 12 league games was at the hands of Leicester.  The men in blue, black and white were outclassed 43-20 at Welford Road by the reigning champions on 3 April.

However, Bath were missing key players that day.  There was no Luke Watson or Danny Grewcock for starters.

In the last few weeks Bath have been sublime.  Switching the point of attack, Olly Barkley has been everywhere.  Nick Abendanon can attack from all over the pitch, and that man Watson is a dynamic ball carrier with a deft offload.

It will be interesting to see if Steve Meehan's men will follow their recent game plan and start this match at 100mph.  If Bath are to win they need to get on top of Leicester, front up in the forwards and stop the Tigers' pack from smothering them and controlling play.

The Tigers will target Bath's lineout as an area of weakness, and veteran Danny Grewcock will need to marshal the forwards in this crucial set piece.

As I said at the start of this post, Leicester's six game winning run in the Guinness Premiership ended at the hands of visiting Saracens on Saturday.  However, the Tigers will have put that to the back of their mind.  They are well used to the business end of the season - this is the sixth straight year they have been in the playoffs.

Worryingly for Bath, Leicester have won their last eight semi-finals in all competitions since Wasps beat them in the Powergen Cup at Millennium Stadium in March 2006.  The Tigers' most recent semi-final defeat at Welford Road was way back in April 1995, again to Wasps but this time in the Pilkington Cup.

This is Bath's third semi-final appearance in a row - a remarkable achievement after lying 11th in the Guinness Premiership table at the half-way stage of the season.

As for the winner of this game?  It's a tough one to call.  Leicester have the home advantage, forward power and set piece domination.  Bath are riding on the crest of a wave and have dangerous play makers in their backline.

My prediction:  My heart says Bath but my head says it will a home win for the Tigers.  The team with the biggest heart will win.  Bath by 6 points.


Northampton Saints v Saracens

If Bath are riding on the crest of a wave then Saracens are surfing right alongside them.

Sarries grabbed a moral-boosting 28-27 win over Northampton in the penultimate round of the regular Guinness Premiership season, and added insult to Saints' injury by celebrating a bit too much for their rivals' liking.

Now, Northampton are gunning for both a place in the final and a good dose of revenge.

Brendan Venter's team is red hot at the moment.  Gone is the rugby-by-numbers kicking game from the first half of the season, and in its place is expansive, offloading play.

Key men for Sarries are wonder-hooker Schalk Brits and full back Alex Goode.  Goode has been fantastic in recent weeks, gliding onto the ball and popping up in all the right places.  Brits' skills have been showcased week after week - he is my tip for the player of the year.

But what of Northampton?  Last week's 31-7 win over London Irish secured the home semi-final after back to back defeats.  When asked if his side were tired, skipper Dylan Hartley angrily denied it, saying he was sick of hearing it and it just wasn't true.

So if Northampton aren't tired, are they ready?  Most definitely.  Everyone knows about top try scorer Chris Ashton on the wing, the power and carrying ability of prop Soane Tonga'uhia and the amazing skills and versatility of back row Phil Dowson.  But what of the crucial number 10 shirt?  Will this be filled by Stephen Myler or Shane Geraghty on Sunday?  In my opinion, it's got to be Myler.  He will control the game much better than Geraghty and will bang over the kicks.

This game is going to be fascinating.  If Northampton can throw everything at Sarries as they did when Munster made the trip to Franklins Gardens then they'll stand a great chance of making the final.  But despite all the controversy, Sarries are the team bang in form, and beating them will be a tough ask.

My prediction:  It's another head v heart battle to call the winning team.  My heart says Northampton, and I would really love for Jim Mallinder's men to go all the way to the final.  However, my head says Saracens, especially after their wins over the Saints and Leicester in the last couple of weeks.  Don't hate me Saints fans.  Saracens to win by 9.

But what do you think?

Man of the Month: May

April's man of the month was Leeds Carnegie captain, Marco Wentzel.  And guess what?  No sooner had he been bestowed with this wonderful honour he promptly led Leeds Carnegie to another season in the top flight.

Hurray!

Therefore, with this in mind, I have been very careful with my choice for May.

This month sees the Guinness Premiership playoffs and final - and the question on everyone's lips (well, some people's lips) is which team will lift the trophy on May 29th?

Leicester, Northampton, and Saracens have already booked their playoff spots, and Bath will join them if they can see off Leeds next weekend.

If I had to choose a winner from the remaining four it would be tough. 

Leicester Tigers have the pedigree, Sarries are playing some superb rugby, Bath are enjoying a storming second half to the season, and Northampton Saints have been the all round surprise package.

But if I had to choose a team it would be Northampton Saints.

Why?

A few reasons I guess.

1. Everyone loves an underdog.  Northampton are not a fashionable team.  Well, maybe they are now, but before the start of this season?  Not a chance.  Jim Mallinder, Dorian West and Paul Grayson have done an excellent job of building the Saints up from relegation in 2006/07 and transforming them into this season's LV= Cup winners, Heineken Cup quarter-finalists and Guinness Premiership semi-finalists.
2. They play exciting rugby and have done all season.  I'm not saying that Leicester, and more recently, Bath and Sarries haven't been mesmerising crowds with magical ball skills, but this season, at times, Northampton have been sublime.
3. I fancy Dylan Hartley.  There.  I said it.  The Northampton captain might not be everyone's cup of tea but I think he's lovely.  Yeah, so he might look a bit like Chunk from the Goonies but I wouldn't mind seeing his truffle shuffle.  (And before you say it, I don't even know what that innuendo means). 
   
   Dylan says he is often mistaken for Chris Ashton, his Northampton and England team mate, when doing his weekly supermarket shop.  Responding to this, Ashton said: "That's ridiculous because I'm much better looking.  And thinner."
   
   Thinner, yes.  But better looking?  Nah.

Therefore, all this can only mean one thing. 

Yes, May's Man of the Month is England and Saints hooker Dylan Hartley.

A good choice I think.

With that I'm going to wish good luck to Dylan and all the Northampton Saints for the rest of the season!

Rugby Drunk

I have to admit that I spent the majority of last weekend watching rugby and having a few shandies.

Well, it was my birthday and the weekend was filled with the best Heineken Cup quarter finals that I can remember.  And that's not just because I have a memory like a sieve.

I can't let these four fabulous games pass without comment.

The Leinster v Clermont Auvergne see-saw on Friday night was brilliant.  I like Leinster and I wanted them to win, but if I'm honest it wouldn't have been the end of the world if they hadn't.

But as a neutral this game had it all: 

• Man of the Match Jamie Heaslip powering over for a brace of tries.
• Jonny Sexton dragging his kicking stats out of the toilet and nailing kick after kick.
• Brock James flushing his usually robotically reliable kicking boots down the bog and turning into as big a choker as Tim Henman.
• Both teams edging ahead before being dragged back by the opposition.

Excellent stuff.  29-28 to Leinster.

Next up Biarritz v Ospreys, and randomly, another 29-28 thriller.

Again, the home team (even though they were playing in Spain) came out on top.  Some of the more amazing points:

• King of Mediocrity and ex-Leeds Carnegie player/full-time sicknote Iain Balshaw scorched over for a try WITHOUT injuring himself.
• Ryan Jones put in a storming performance after looking, well, pretty rubbish in the Six Nations.
• And who can forget one of the most outstanding solo tries to grace the competition.  Step up Takzuda Ngwenya:

Awesome stuff.

Next up was Munster v Northampton Saints: the game I was really looking forward to.

As a patriotic kind of girl I was firmly behind the Saints, who were the only English team left in the competition.  As a result, this was the game I enjoyed watching the least - not because it was a poor game, but because it meant a bit more.  I was gutted as Saints lost.

Highlights/lowlights:

• The impatient Sky Sports cameras venturing into the Northampton dressing room before kick-off.  Five seconds later they made a hasty retreat thanks to a chorus of expletives beign shouted out by the pumped up players.
• The atmosphere at Thomond Park.  Absolutely electric.  I NEED to go and watch a game of this magnitude there at some point in my life.
• Ronan O'Gara, who stopped whingeing about Jonny Sexton and did what he does best and kicked his team home in the second half, 33-19 the final score.
• Northampton captain Dylan Hartley's post match interview.  Credit to him, he fronted up even though he was absolutely gutted.  I just wanted to give him a cuddle.

Finally, there was the epic all French clash between Toulouse and pretty in pink Stade Francais on Sunday.

I very much enjoyed watching:

• Yannick Jauzion weaving his unique magic in the centre.  The man is a class act.
• Toulouse really going for the jugular and ripping Stade apart in the second half.  Very impressive.  42-16 at full time after a half time score of 13-10.  Watch out Leinster.
• Another brilliant try for Cedric Heymans.  I'm still gutted he didn't win try of the year last year.

All this means the semi finals shake down like this:

Leinster v Toulouse
Munster v Biarritz

I can't wait.

However I have to end this post on a sad note.  My team, Leeds Carnegie, were bummed 46-11 by Harlequins.  How rude of them not to give me the only birthday present I'd asked for: a bonus point win!
Boo!  :-(

Six Nations Week 2: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

The Good:

The Wales v Scotland game.  An incredible last five minutes in a match with more twists than one of Adam Jones' bouncing ringlets.

Adam Jones: curly wurly

Dan Parks: back from the wilderness (or Glasgow in his case).

Shane Williams.  The man who turned the match for Wales.  He showed great skill to put Lee Byrne in for a try, calmly caught a tricky high ball under pressure when Scotland were dominating, and he bagged the winning score to boot.

An excellent all round game for France.  Well, with the exception of their line-out.  A great game for France's Mathieu Bastereuad, Yannick Jauzion and Morgan Parra to name but three.

Italy, who matched England and made a real game of it.  Six Nations whipping boys they are not.  A special mention to Italy number eight and man of the match Alessandro Mani.  Who needs Sergio Parisse?  Luke McClean also had a good game at full-back for the Azzurri.

Jonny Wilkinson, who passed the 500 point mark in the Six Nations competition, and used his experience to stretch England's lead near to the death.

The Bad:

Scotland commiting rugby hari kari against Wales in the last 10 minutes.  Two sin binnings for the Scots and 17 points to Wales.  Does that remind you of anyone, Alun Wyn Jones?  Then again, Scotland's loss was due in great part to...

Referee George Clancy, who allowed an extra passage of play in the Wales v Scotland game even though the clock had already reached 80 minutes.  With the teams tied on 24-24, Shane Williams scorched over the try line for Wales.  If it were a game of football, Wales would be Manchester United.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson:  mildly irritated.

Ireland's performance against France - or lack of it.  Last week Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team as "mediocre" in their 29-11 win over Italy.  This weekend in defeat, he downgraded that to "poor".  Personally, I'd have gone for "abysmal".

Yannick Jauzion crosses the line for France

France's faultering lineout.  The only negative in their 33-10 victory over Ireland.

England kicking the ball away aimlessly at almost every opportunity.  Martin Johnson's men looked about as threatening as a bunch of bumbling marshmallows during large parts of the game against Italy.  Oh and how England totally failed to ram home their advantage when Castro was in the bin completely mystified me.  Another very disappointing England performance.  There's plenty for them to work on.  Again.

Dylan Hartley's line-out throwing.  Very poor.  I found myself being thankful when Steve Thompson stomped onto the pitch.  Yes, it was that bad.

The Ugly:

Scotland's Thom Evans being stretchered off the pitch and subsequently undergoing neck surgery.  Get well soon Thom.

Jerry Flannery's impromptu 'can-can' kick on Alexis Pallison. France scrum-half Morgan Parra is no doubt thrilled that Flannery backed him up after Parra claimed Ireland "cheat every weekend".

Don't Cry for Me, Argentina

Although I'm crying in despair at some of the selections that Martin Johnson has made for the England squad to face the Pumas this weekend.

There are several changes to the England team this week from the line up that played Australia last Saturday, but none of these changes involve sending Andy Goode trotting back to Brive with a suitcase rammed full of Timotei to be replaced by Northampton's rising star Ben Foden.

This has annoyed me, mainly because England need a proper full back.  Ugo Monye didn't look comfortable last week and he never plays at full back for Harlequins. Ben Foden on the other hand had a storming game for Northampton in the LV= Cup last weekend.  Why can't he come in to replace Andy Goode?  Goode isn't going to shift Wilkinson from the starting fifteen and he doesn't have Wilko's multi-facted game, so why is he even included in the sqaud?  Why Johnno, why?

Goode (left) or Foden (right):  No contest?

Elsewhere, desperate to inject some dynamism into the squad, Martin Johnson has selected James Haskell who starts at number eight instead of Jordan Crane.  Crane was solid but didn't assert himself against Australia, and it will be interesting to see if the hyped-up Haskell can bring his much talked about skill and athleticism to the number eight spot having not played there yet this season for Stade Francais.  Joe Worsley is named as a replacement and pushes Crane out of the squad altogether, which is a bit mean on Jordan but I don't mind it so much due to Worsley's versatility.  And the fact that he is affectionately called 'Melon Head' by his team-mates.

Worsley is back

Dylan Hartley replaces Steve Thompson as the starting hooker.  Excellent.  Thompson was OK against Australia but OK isn't really good enough.  Time to give the grunt, pace and ball carrying skills of Hartley a shot.

Duncan Bell is promoted to the first fifteen instead of injured David Wilson which means there's space for Haskell's old buddy Paul Doran-Jones on the bench.  Who?  Exactly.  After a quick Google search I discovered that he is most famous for getting himself and James Haskell suspended from the very expensive private school they attended for filming a "sex romp" between Paul D-J and his then girlfriend.  How very Paris Hilton.  Hopefully he will have worked out his best angle if he gets a run out on Saturday.

Paul Doran-Jones:  Accrington Stanley meets Paris Hilton

Who is he?  Exactly.

Finally, London Irish's Paul Hodgson gets a start over the lovely Danny Care at scrum-half after having a great start to the season.  Don't worry though Danny, you're still my favourite, and it's not your fault that you couldn't get any quick ball last Saturday.

Therefore, despite Martin Johnson's search for a more dynamic England, Andy Goode stays, Monye is still masquerading as a makeshift full-back, Deacon and Borthwick are both starting and Johnson is persisting with Banahan.

Why oh why oh why?

Come on Johnno, I think you can do better than that:
Foden in; Monye to replace Banahan on the wing; Goode out; Lawes to start in place of Deacon.  Simples.

Instead, here's the team that will start against Argentina on Saturday:
England: Monye; Cueto, Hipkiss, Geraghty, Banahan; Wilkinson, Hodgson; Payne, Hartley, Bell, Deacon, Borthwick (capt), Croft, Moody, Haskell.
Replacements: Thompson, Doran-Jones, Lawes, Worsley, Care, Goode, Erinle.


How England's makeshift pack will fare against the grunt of the massive Argentinians might make painful viewing. Lest we forget that England are currently below Argentina in the World rankings - oh the shame.

Good luck boys.  Hopefully you won't need it.

It's all about Consistency...

Is it really Thursday already? Yes it certainly is, and once again it's time for me to put my Mystic Meg hat on and cast my eye over this weekend's Guinness Premiership and Magners league fixtures to give you a few predictions.

Before I start polishing my crystal ball, I want to talk about a rather contentious topic which is really riling me at the moment: the inconsistency of disciplinary committees. This week saw Leinster's Shane Jennings have his appeal over his twelve week ban for "making contact with the eye area" of Nick Kennedy turned down by an Independent Appeal Committee. The original committee adjudged Jennings' foul play to be in the "low-end in the level of seriousness for an offence of this type" and Nick Kennedy submitted both a verbal and written testimony in which he admitted he had "over-reacted" to the incident. Now I am not condoning this type of illegal play whatsoever as there is no place for in the game of rugby at all. What I find so incredulous is that Schalk Berger practically poked Luke Fitzgerald's eyes out in the second Lions test match this summer and all he received was a comparatively lenient 8 week ban. Consistency is all I ask for. Is it really so difficult for all the suits who sit on these committees to formulate a universal approach?

Schalk Burger only got an 8 week ban for this?

In other news there is now a selection headache brewing for Martin Johnson in the run up to the Autumn Internationals. Phil Vickery's neck injury rules the tight head prop out for three months and completes a hat trick of injuries sustained by England's front row. It will be interesting to see if Johnson plumps for youth or experience to replace the might of Vickery, Mears and Sheridan. I wouldn't be surprised to see a mixture of the two, with a likely call up for Saints' Dylan Hartley who I think will scrum down alongside Julian White and possibly Tim Payne.

Anyway, enough of all my ranting. Here are my predictions for this weekend's games with the winners highlighted in bold.

Guinness Premiership:

Bath v Newcastle
Gloucester v Wasps
London Irish v Leicester
Northampton v Sale
Worcester v Harlequins

Saracens v Leeds Carnegie

Magners League:

Edinburgh v Munster
Glasgow v Connacht
Scarlets v Newport-Gwent Dragons

Cardiff Blues v Ospreys
Ulster v Leinster

I know, I know, I'm a Leeds Carnegie fan and I'm not backing my team. Then again would you back them against the unbeaten force of the Saracens when Leeds have been so consistently bad this season? No, I didn't think so. In this case I would be very happy to be proved wrong, however sadly I can't see this happening.

In other Leeds news, prop Fosi Pala'amo has had his visa rejected so he won't be joining up with the squad this season. Mike MacDonald has been forced to reapply for his visa and is still playing a waiting game over in the States. Come on Big Mac, we're missing you over here, and the Morrissons pie counter next to the Kirkstall training ground is close to going out of business!

Anyway, that's all for now. I'm aware this has been a rather serious blog entry so I will end on a lighter note with a picture my Mum sent to me this week. Ages ago I bought her a Paint-Your-Own Garden Gnome as a joke, and this week she finally got round to giving the naked gnome a lick of paint. Here are the results:

Bless her she painted it in a Leeds Carnegie kit. Is it just me or does it bear a passing resemblance to Juan Gomez?

Have a good weekend everyone!