Flying the Flag: Weekend Predictions

There's a small tournament starting in South Africa this Friday.  Something to do with a round ball and Wayne Rooney...

David "Call me Dave" Cameron, the botox-faced British Prime Minister, is flying the St George's cross above 10 Downing Street for a few weeks.  Apparently it's something to do with the sporting shenanigans in the Rainbow Nation, but don't believe that for a second.  Johnno and the boys: it's all for you.

This does however, suck if you are Welsh or Scottish.  Apparently, Dave doesn't care what happens in New Zealand and Argentina this month.

Anyway, as we all know, the summer rugby tours are where it's at, and as usual I'm going to have a go at predicting the results.

I'm off on holiday tomorrow, so sadly I won't be able to watch any of the games.  This also means that I've not had much time to write this post, so apologies as it's only a quickie.

However, I do have time to say that I am thrilled Phil Dowson, Northampton Saints' back-row forward, has been promoted to the senior England squad.  Sadly this was due to an injury to Hendre Fourie, as the Leeds Carnegie flanker picked up a calf strain in the 28-28 draw against the Australian Barbarians yesterday.

Speaking of the Baa-Baas game, from all reports it sounded like England's second string side were lucky to grab a draw.  I'm not sure how much we can take from this result, as the teams that run out on Saturday will be vastly different.

Well, maybe with the exception of Australia's 19-year old points scoring machine, James O'Connor.  An individual points haul of three tries, two penalties and two conversions isn't too shabby - especially when Berrick Barnes was the only other person to get on the scoreboard for Australia with one successful penalty.

The South Africa v France games looks set to be a clash of the titans.  France are the best team in the northern hemisphere right now, and they will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing a Springboks side who nearly came up short against Wales.

So without further ado, here are my predictions:

Argentina v Scotland - Scotland to win by 6
Australia v England - Australia by 12
New Zealand v Ireland - New Zealand by 9
South Africa v France - South Africa by 6

What do you think?

Stats Off for the Creme de la Prem

I love statistics I do.  When I saw that stats gurus Opta had revealed their Guinness Premiership team of the season I almost yelped with excitement.

Why do I love number crunching so much?

Well, stats might never paint the full picture, but they also never lie.

So which players have been at the top of their game based on all 22 rounds of the league? 

Here is Opta's team of the year:

15  Nick Abendanon (Bath Rugby)
14  Chris Ashton (Northampton Saints)
13  Ben Jacobs (London Wasps)
12  Brad Barritt (Saracens)
11  Bruce Reihana (Northampton Saints)
10  Jimmy Gopperth (Newcastle Falcons)
9    Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers)
1    Soane Tonga'uiha (Northampton Saints)
2    Schalk Brits (Saracens)
3    Carl Hayman (Newcastle Falcons)
4    Erik Lund (Leeds Carnegie)
5    Marco Wentzel (Leeds Carnegie)

6    Phil Dowson (Northampton Saints)

7    Steffon Armitage (London Irish)

8    Dan Ward-Smith (London Wasps)

If you want to get down to the nitty gritty of the numbers, then have a look at this excellent article.  I couldn't have put it better myself.

It's clear from the stats that Northampton's success has come from the strength and running of their forwards, shown by the inclusion of Dowson and Tonga'uhia, with their pacey backs, Ashton and Reihana, making up the metres and bagging tries.

And Leeds Carnegie's dominance in the set piece is shown with skipper Marco Wentzel crowned top lineout stealer.  His second row partner, Erik Lund, also features for his line breaking and tackling stats.

I could go on all day and bore you with the numbers, but if you're interested in all that you can click the link above and read all about it.

One thing I will say - it really is true that stats never lie.  Four of the five nominees for Guinness Premiership player of the season make it into the team.  Brits, Dowson, Armitage and Tonga'uhia are all there.  Only Sarries' Ernst Joubert misses out.

I wonder if Martin Johnson is regretting his crazy decision not to take Phil Dowson to Australia this summer yet?

Looking at the numbers, I know I would be if I was in his (humongous) shoes...

England Squad for Trip Down Under: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Martin Johnson had a few tricks up his sleeve today when he named his England squad to tour Australia this summer.

Along with nine uncapped players, the England coach made some, erm, interesting recalls.

Skipper Steve Borthwick misses the tour because of a knee injury meaning Lewis Moody looks set to retain the captaincy.

But which other selections were inspired, which were dodgy, and which will make England rugby fans hold their heads in their hands and sob uncontrollably?


The Good:

Hendre Fourie: I'm thrilled the Leeds flanker has been called up after a fantastic season at a so-called "unfashionable club".  I wonder if the words of Johnno's ex-Leicester chum, Neil Back, had anything to do with his inclusion?

Olly Barkley:  Since returning from a broken leg, Barkley has helped inspire a resurgent Bath to a Guinness Premiership semi-final spot.  He is in the form of his life at the moment.  A worthy recall.

Dominic Waldouck:  Nice to see Johnno giving the talented Wasps centre a chance. 

No Louis Deacon:  Hang on, the terrible Leicester second row has been dropped?  A miracle.


The Bad:

James Haskell:  Did he even play in the Six Nations?  I'm not sure, as he had about as much an impact on me as the tedious film "The Men Who Stare At Goats".  Hours of my life, wasted.

No Jon Clarke: I don't really understand why one of England's most dangerous centres will be left at home this summer.


The Ugly:

Charlie Hodgson.  One word: WHY?!

And come to think of it, why is Stephen Myler only in the Saxons squad instead of choker Charlie who will travel to Oz?

No Phil Dowson.  What does the versatile Northampton back row forward have to do to be included in the  England tour down under?  Solve the Greek financial crisis and broker World peace?  Or does he simply have to plait sawdust and knit fog?  It is a travesty that he hasn't been handed a plane ticket and will only be given the chance to star for the Saxons.



The Full England squad, who will venture to the land where women glow and men plunder:

Backs: D Armitage (London Irish), C Ashton (Northampton), M Banahan (Bath), O Barkley (Bath), D Care (Harlequins), M Cueto (Sale Sharks), T Flood (Leicester), B Foden (Northampton), S Geraghty (Northampton), S Hape (Bath), C Hodgson (Sale Sharks), U Monye (Harlequins), J Simpson (Wasps), D Strettle (Harlequins), M Tait (Sale Sharks), M Tindall (Gloucester), D Waldouck (Wasps), R Wigglesworth (Sale Sharks), J Wilkinson (Toulon), B Youngs (Leicester).


Forwards: S Armitage (London Irish), D Attwood (Gloucester), D Cole (Leicester), T Croft (Leicester), P Doran-Jones (Gloucester), N Easter (Harlequins), D Flatman (Bath), H Fourie (Leeds Carnegie), J Golding (Newcastle), D Hartley (Northampton), J Haskell (Stade Francais), C Lawes (Northampton), L Mears (Bath), L Moody (Leicester), T Palmer (Stade Francais), G Parling (Leicester), T Payne (Wasps), C Robshaw (Harlequins), S Shaw (Wasps), S Thompson (Brive), D Ward-Smith (Wasps), R Webber (Wasps), D Wilson (Bath), J Worsley (Wasps).

 
England Saxons squad for the Churchill Cup:
 
Backs: N Abendanon (Bath), A Allen (Leicester), B Barritt (Saracens), J Clarke (Northampton), A Goode (Saracens), P Hodgson (London Irish), S Myler (Northampton), J Simpson-Daniel (Gloucester), O Smith (Montpellier), T Varndell (Wasps), M Young (Newcastle).


Forwards: D Bell (Bath), N Catt (Bath), A Corbisiero (London Irish), P Dowson (Northampton), G Kitchener (Worcester), S Hooper (Bath), T Lindsay (Wasps), L Narraway (Gloucester), D Paice (London Irish), T Rees (Wasps), A Saull (Saracens), G Skivington (Wasps), R Vickers (Newcastle), N Wood (Gloucester), T Wood (Worcester).

VOTE NOW! Guinness Premiership Player of the Season

The Guinness Premiership season has all but finished, and with only the title deciding playoff games to go it's time to see which players have made the biggest impact.

Leicester host Bath and Saracens travel to Northampton in the semi-finals after a thrilling final round.

And it's no coincidence that these teams feature some of the most outstanding players to grace the league this campaign.

But who is your player of the season?

Here is the cream of the crop.  Well, in my opinion anyway...

Schalk Brits (Saracens)

Everything the Sarries hooker touched turned to gold this season.  Pacey, powerful and with a step that would make Yannick Jauzion jealous: Brits has it all.  OK, so his line out throwing has been a little hit and miss, but when he starts running with ball in hand he rips defences apart.  This has been his first season in the Guinness Premiership and arguably Brits has made the biggest impact of any player.  With only three South Africa caps to his name it is unbelievable to think he won't add to this tally in next year's World Cup.  Second only behind full back Alex Goode in the number of metres he has made at Sarries, 28-year old Brits is also in the club's top three for carries and tackles. 

Brendan Venter, Saracens coach, said: "Brits is a special player, who does things that can't be coached. He's so talented with the ball in hand - but then you look at his stats and see how many tackles he makes. He has to go to the World Cup."



Olly Barkley (Bath)

Centre Barkley returned to Bath after a brief sojourn at rivals Gloucester, only to miss Bath's difficult first half of the season with a broken leg.  Steve Meehan's team were battling the fallout from the drug scandal that rocked the club, and at the half way point in the season they had plummeted to the foot of the table.  But the return of Barkley and fly-half Butch James inspired Bath to an amazing run of 11 wins from 12 to secure a semi-final spot.  In this time, 28-year old Barkley has been sublime.  His passing, breaks, kicking game and points from the boot has been at the heart of Bath's success.  Surely he must be very close to grabbing a ticket to Australia for England's summer tour?

Steve Meehan, Bath coach, said: "He would be a certainty for the tour if I was on England's selection committee.  I think the 12 months he had away from here has done him a hell of a lot of good. He feels that he has nothing to prove to anybody, and his rugby is showing that."



Phil Dowson (Northampton)

Flanker and Saints vice-captain Dowson is undoubtedly one of the first names Northampton coach Jim Mallinder writes on his team sheet.  The Franklins Gardens' favourite has been a force to be reckoned with this season.  A powerful player with an incredible work rate, Dowson does so much excellent work that often goes unnoticed.  Well, not when he is thundering over the try-line as he often has this season.  The 28-year old's leadership qualities along with his excellent rugby skills must be making Lewis Moody sweat for his England starting place.  Martin Johnson has to pick Dowson to go to Australia next month.

The ever modest Dowson said: "It's probably not suitable to target the England tour but rather make sure that I'm playing well and I'm sorting out the roles that I'm doing with the coaches,"

"If [Saxons coach] Stuart Lancaster or [England forwards coach] John Wells gave me a call I'd be keen as mustard to go along. At the moment I'm concentrating on getting the best out of myself for the Saints."

And that is why everyone at Franklins Gardens loves him.



Chris Ashton (Northampton)

Rugby league convert Chris Ashton has enjoyed unbelievable success this season.  The 23-year old wing from Wigan, Lancashire, has crossed the whitewash 16 times in the league and is the top try scorer.  Electric pace combined with the strength and power of a back-row forward has seen Ashton destroy defences and link up with Saints full-back Ben Foden to devastating effect.  A well deserved call up to England for the final Six Nations game against France saw Ashton kick "that chip" - a move which squandered a try scoring chance the talented winger would have snapped up without second thought for his club.  That one blemish aside, Ashton is the future of England speedsters, and a strong contender for player of the season.

Jim Mallinder, Northampton Saints coach said: "His try-scoring has been remarkable, but it’s his general play and understanding of where to turn up that has really improved.

“He understands the game and where the weak points of defences are.  He is a natural try-scorer”



Soane Tonga'uiha (Northampton)

Prop Tonga'uiha spent a few weeks of the season entangled in a Saints v Saracens tug of war after confusing contract negotiations.  However that was all agreed amicably, with Saints securing the 28-year old Tongan's services for next season.  The battle for his signature is understandable: "Tiny" has been a huge force in Northampton's front row and is the form loosehead in the league.  The sight of the massive forward steaming up the field has become a recurring sight - Tonga'uiha is tenth in the list of top carriers.  Not bad for a front row, who also picked up man of the match awards in the LV= Cup semi-final and final.

But what do the fans say about the man?

"He has just been unstoppable"

"Who can forget the break through & dash in the LV= final?"
"Has been outstanding this season, especially in the LV= Cup Final."
"An amazing player, a truly nice guy and a fans favourite."
"Man mountain demolishes almost everything in his path."
"His displays in the semi final and final were awesome."
"Fabulous performance after fabulous performance."

Hendre Fourie (Leeds Carnegie)

Last but by no means least is Leeds flanker Hendre Fourie.  Fourie has been the stand out player for relegation battlers Carnegie, and despite playing for a so-called "unfashionable" club, the 30-year old back row forward forced his way into the England squad for the Six Nations.  The Leeds number seven qualifies for England due to residency, and has been tipped to play for England by his coach, Neil Back.  Always snapping around the fringes of the breakdown, Fourie is a fierce tackler - topping the Opta stats for his club - as well as being a powerful ball carrier.  "Shrek" is a firm favourite of the Headingley Carnegie faithful and will always be the first name on the team sheet if he is fit.

Neil Back, Leeds head coach, said: "I believe Hendre will go with the full England squad to Australia,"

"He is now maximising his potential and on the back of that he is now, for me, the outstanding number seven in the Premiership.

"Because of that he has now played for the Saxons and been involved in full England training. I believe he will now go on the summer tour and go on from there with England."


So who is your Guinness Premiership player of the season?

Vote now in the poll, which you can find on the sidebar.  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>