Aviva Premiership Round 10: Previews and Predictions

Wear your thermals this weekend...

It’s day six of the snow-induced chaos and already three Aviva Premiership games have fallen victim to the artic conditions. Both Friday night fixtures have been called off meaning Bath’s trip to Newcastle and Gloucester’s trip to Sale will have to be rescheduled.  Leeds v Northampton has also been postponed due to health and safety fears about ice around the ground.

Here are my previews and predictions for the games that have survived the snowy weather (at the time of posting).


London Irish v Leicester Tigers

London Irish are having something of a mid-season wobble at the moment. The Reading based club has lost four consecutive games in all competitions since their league win over Sale a month ago. However, the Exiles’ home form in the league has been 100%, claiming four wins from four at the Majedski. The fact that Leicester, reigning champions and hot on Irish’s heels in third, have failed to win any of their away games this season will not have gone unnoticed. In this fixture last year, Irish ran out 18-12 winners, so home form and recent history looks to favour Toby Booth’s men. Saying that, the Exiles were outclassed in all areas against Northampton on a chilly night last Friday. Defensively they looked frail and a rampaging Soane Tonga’uiha destroyed them at scrum time and in the loose. I’m sure the Leicester pack will be salivating at the prospect of taking on a team following such a demoralizing defeat, even without key man Tom Croft who is ruled out with a shoulder injury.

My prediction: I’m tipping Leicester to start firing during the cold snap. Tigers to win by 12.

Saracens v Harlequins

This week the news from the Saracens camp all been focused on the departure of their controversial director of rugby, Brendan Venter. The former Springbok centre is set to return to South Africa and has moved into a newly created technical director role and is replaced by first-team coach Mark McCall. Whether this has damaged preparations for this weekend’s game or not remains to be seen, but I think it must have created at least some form of distraction. Saracens’ form has dipped slightly in the past month. The men in black have only claimed one win in their last three games which has seen them fall to fifth in the table. However, Sarries have won their last two games against Harlequins who arrive at Vicarage Road on the back of an emphatic 51-18 win over Leeds. The result was only the second time Quins have ever clocked up a half century in a league game – the other was the 60-14 hammering of Worcester in April last year. A win for Conor O’Shea’s Quins would be their first away from home in the Premiership since their trip to Leeds 12 months ago.

My prediction: Despite the off field shufflings at Saracens, I think they will edge this game. Sarries by 9.

London Wasps v Exeter Chiefs

Exeter are currently seventh in the league after a brilliant start to their first season in the top flight. Whisper it quietly, but a top six finish and Heineken Cup place must surely have crossed the mind of head coach Rob Baxter. If the Chiefs are to end the season in the top half of the table they need to beat teams like Premiership and European rugby stalwarts, Wasps. The two sides have already met this year in the LV= Cup. On that occasion Exeter ran out 29-6 winners at Sandy Park. However, after an unsteady start to their league campaign, Wasps have notched up three straight wins and have risen into sixth place. The Londoners’ only league defeat at home came at the hands of leaders Northampton on 24 October. Can Exeter pull another shock out of the bag? Quite possibly. The newly promoted side are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, and have not lost on their travels since the trip to title favourites Northampton on 2 October.

My prediction: This is the most difficult game for me to call this week. Exeter have been brilliant so far but Wasps are slowly coming to the boil. I’m going to go with home advantage and say Wasps to win by 5.
 
What do you think?

Aviva Premiership Round 9: Previews and Predictions

It's that time of the week again where I cast my beady little eye over the weekend's Aviva Premiership fixtures.  There's a couple of tasty looking games, with first place Northampton playing host to second place London Irish.  Saracens make the journey across the M4 to Gloucester with hopes of ending the cherry and whites' 17 game unbeaten home run, whilst lowly Leeds are looking to get their first league win of the season at The Stoop.

But who will win?  Like a drunk bloke hoping for a bit of 3am nookie, here's my weekly stab in the dark:

Northampton Saints v London Irish

This looks set to be the clash of the weekend in the Aviva Premiership.  First plays second.  Northampton are flying high at the top of the league, a clutch of youngsters impressing in last week's 19-10 comeback over Sale at Edgeley Park.  Nothing seems to be able to stop them at the moment but Toby Booth's Exiles are hot on their heels and might have something to say about that.  The Saints have won on their last three meetings with Irish, whilst the Exiles' last victory at Franklin's Gardens was a narrow 21-20 win six years ago.  And Northampton are now on an impressive run of eight consecutive wins in all competitions even though they are missing key players thanks to international call-ups.  Strength-in-depth seems to be the order of the day for the Saints, which is all credit to the coaching team led by Jim Mallinder.  Northampton's opponents, London Irish, slipped up against Wasps last Sunday.  The 33-25 defeat was the first time the Exiles failed to take a league point from a Premiership game this season.

My prediction: The understrength Saints fought back in Stockport and ended Sale's winning run.  Against London Irish at home?  It's a tricky one to call.  A little controversially, I'm going for Irish to win by 7.

Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks

This prediction is something of a shot in the dark (as if the rest of them aren't...) as Exeter and Sale have never met before in any competition.  The Chiefs might be the Premiership's newest team but they

will not fear the Sharks this weekend.  Instead, Exeter will start the game as favourites after rising to 7th in the league.  They can also boast a four game unbeaten run in all competitions. Sandy Park is proving to be a tricky place to go - the Chiefs have only lost there once in the league this season, in a narrow 12-9 defeat by London Irish in round six.  Last Friday, Sale deflated like a punctured spacehopper against Northampton, and the sorry statistic facing Sharks head coach Mike Brewer is that their only win in their last five Premiership matches was the turgid 6-3 victory at Leeds Carnegie a month ago. However, despite last week's home defeat, the Sharks' recent form as been good, winning three of their last four away games in all competitions.

My prediction: It's a long way from Manchester to Exeter and it is a trip into the unknown for Sale.  Exeter by 9.

Leicester Tigers v Newcastle Falcons

Both these sides got back to winning ways last weekend.  The Tigers ended their four game losing run in all competitons with their 18-13 home win over Harlequins last Friday.  Over at Kingston Park, Falcons fly-half Jimmy Gopperth outkicked Gloucester counterpart Freddie Burns to score all the points in their 12-6 win, only their second in the league this season.  Leicester have won three of their last four games against Newcastle and even though international call ups have weakened their side they will be confident.  The last, and in fact only time, the Falcons have won at Welford Road was almost 13 years ago.  Are Newcastle going to pull a massive shock out of the bag this week and beat the Tigers?  Not if the wonderful 36, aka Billy Twelvetrees, has anything to do with it.  The Tigers stand-in stand-off has been in fine form in Toby Flood's absence and has been key in keeping the Tigers ticking over.

My prediction: Leicester by 12.

Gloucester Rugby v Saracens

Gloucester came away from a wintry Kingston Park with a losing bonus point last weekend, ending their four game winning run in the league.  But fear not, cherry and white fans, they are unbeaten for more than a year at Kingsholm since Cardiff Blues won there in the Anglo-Welsh Cup on 8 November 2009.  That's a 17 game unbeaten run - something which pantomime villain, the wonderful Saracens head coach Brendan Venter, will be looking to dash this weekend.  Watch out Gloucester, he's behind you.  And Gloucester really should watch out.  Last weekend, Venter threw a load of youngsters into the mix against Bath where they fought back to claim a 17-13 win at the Rec.  The star of the show was 19-year-old Owen Farrell, son of, you've guessed it, Great Britain rugby league and Saracens star, Andy Farrell.  And Sarries' form is good.  Their only loss in their last seven league games was at home to Exeter at the end of October.  Can Gloucester maintain their home run or will Venter conjure up yet another win?

My prediction:  Another tricky one to call.  Part of me thinks Venter will do it again, but Gloucester's home record isn't to be sniffed at.  Gloucester by 8.

Bath Rugby v London Wasps

Bath seem to be veering off the rails at the moment and look to be trying their best to replicate the woeful run of form from start of last season which saw them slump to 11th in the league.  Their only win in their last six games of Aviva Premiership Rugby was the 31-16 win at home to Sale in round four. However, home form is becoming a huge issue as the men in blue, black and white have only won one of their last four games at The Rec in all competitions.  That was the 29-19 win over Cardiff Blues in the LV= Cup on 5 November.

After starting the season looking like shadows of their former selves, Wasps have started to string together some form and have now won three of their last four league games.  Last weekend they outscored London Irish and a late Dave Walder penalty denied the Exiles a losing bonus point.  Bath and Wasps have already met this season, the Londoners beating Steve Meehan's men 18-16 in the LV= Cup at Adams Park two weeks ago.

My prediction:  Looking at recent form I'm going to have to plump for a Wasps win by 9.

Harlequins v Leeds Carnegie

As the weeks pass by it pains me more and more to write previews for any game involving my beloved Leeds.  Why?  Because it forces me to remember just how hopeless they've been this season.  Winless in the league after the first eight rounds and seven points adrift at the bottom of the table, it's becoming increasingly hard to see where they will get their first win.  And this weekend's task won't be an easy one.  Harlequins have won their last four games against Leeds, whilst Carnegie haven't won at The Stoop since 2003.

But there is a glimmer of hope as Quins are winless in their last three league games.  However, their home form is pretty good, as they have lost just one of their last 11 matches at The Stoop in all competitions. Leeds' problems are worse still as they only have one hooker available following injury to Andy Titterall and Steve Thompson's England call-up.  This means head coach Neil Back has been left searching for cover and being forced to rely on former Leeds hooker, conditioning coach James Parkes, on the bench.  I fully expect Harlequins fly-half Nick Evans to rip the visitors to shreds.

My prediction:  Probably another big defeat for Leeds.  Harlequins to win by 18.

But what do you think?

Aviva Premiership Round 8: Previews & Predictions

A crucial weekend for Leeds captain Marco Wentzel

With all eyes on the Autumn Internationals, the return of the Aviva Premiership might have slipped under your radar.

The LV= Cup has been in town for the last fortnight but now the league is back with instalment number eight.

Hopefully Chris Ashton and chums will rip up the Twickenham turf in another sensational England performance, but all the while the league rumbles on quietly in the background.

Here are my previews and predictions for all you punters out there:

Leicester v Harlequins


Harlequins make their second trip to Welford Road in a fortnight after beating the Tigers 34-25 in the LV= Cup two weeks ago. Leicester then slumped to their fourth consecutive defeat in all competitions last weekend in the 46-13 thumping by the Ospreys at Rodney Parade.
That defeat marks the Tigers’ worst run of form since 2003/04. However, even though Quins have been enjoying a run of good form recently, they haven’t won on the road in the Premiership since their trip to Leeds last December. Conor O’Shea’s men have also never been victorious at Welford Road in the league.
After a two week break for the LV= Cup, Leicester have named a strong side, including a place on the bench for lock Geoff Parling who has missed the start of the season with a neck injury. Fly-half Nick Evans and full back Mike Brown return for Quins.

My prediction: I think the Tigers will be a much tougher challenge than two weeks ago. Leicester by 9.

Sale Sharks v Northampton Saints

Sale survived a second-half rally by Leeds Carnegie last Sunday in a 23-17 cup win at Headingley. This sealed two wins from two for the Sharks in the LV= Cup after an impressive 39-14 victory at home to London Irish a fortnight ago. In fact, Sale’s only defeat in their last six games in all competitions was the 26-39 loss to the Exiles in the league on 31 October. The Sharks’ form looks to be on the rise, having now won four of their last five home games. This confidence sees them give 19-year-old rugby league convert, Iain Thornley, his Premiership debut at outside centre after two appearances in the LV= Cup.
Northampton’s form has been solid so far this season with their only loss in any competition at the hands of Saracens in Aviva Premiership round four. The Saints tied 22-22 with Saracens in the LV= Cup before convincingly beating the Dragons 28-3 at Franklins Gardens last weekend.
The history books reveal that Sale have only beaten Northampton once in their last six meetings, a 24-18 league win at Edgeley Park back in April 2009. Can they add to that this weekend? I don’t think so.

My prediction: I’ll be impressed if Sale can pull this one out of the bag, but they will miss their England stars and that will be crucial. Northampton by 14.

Exeter Chiefs v Leeds Carnegie

Exeter have been the surprise package of the Aviva Premiership so far, winning three of their first seven league games and notching up a shock 34-19 away win over Bourgoin in the Amlin Challenge Cup. The Chiefs are now looking to seal a second successive league victory following their 23-9 win over Saracens in round seven – the perfect tonic after a scoreless second-half resulted in a frustrating 23-23 draw with Cardiff Blues in the LV= Cup last weekend.
Exeter’s opponents, Leeds, have only won one game this season: the 23-9 win over Bucuresti Oaks in the Amlin Challenge Cup. However, Carnegie have won their last six matches against Exeter in National One since 2000/01. Sadly, this form counts for nothing now, and Saturday’s game at Sandy Park is a must-win fixture for Neil Back’s team who are currently superglued to the bottom of the table.

My prediction: Sorry Leeds. It’s a long way to Exeter and with the absence of star player Hendre Fourie and a crisis at hooker with Steve Thompson and Andy Titterall unavailable I think you will continue to struggle. Exeter by 8.

London Wasps v London Irish

The last four league meetings between these two London rivals have all been won by the home side on the day. The Exiles top the Aviva Premiership table after the first seven rounds but Toby Booth’s men have lost their last two outings – 25-16 at home to the Scarlets and 39-14 to Sale, both in the LV= Cup. However, Irish have suffered only one reversal in the Premiership so far this season which was the 13-20 defeat at Bath in round two.
Mark van Gisbergen’s six penalties handed Wasps an 18-16 victory last weekend in a lacklustre LV= Cup game against Bath. However, the Exiles will arrive refocused on the league and set on recording their second league win from 10 visits to Adams Park, and their first since April 2006.

My prediction: It’s a tough one, but I think it will be Irish by 7.

Newcastle Falcons v Gloucester Rugby

Newcastle are perilously close to the bottom of the Premiership table having only notched up one win at home to Wasps in round two. However, the Falcons have won two of their last three home games in all competitions, James Fielden the key man in the hard-fought 18-17 LV= Cup win over the Ospreys a fortnight ago.
The last five league meetings between the two clubs have all been won by the home side on the day, but Gloucester have not won at Kingston Park in the Premiership for almost three years.
However, the cherry and white’s form is improving, with their only defeat in their last five games against the Dragons on 4 November. Gloucester have sneaked up into third in the league, almost without being noticed. Despite this, their away form is a worry as they have only won one away game this season. Improving that statistic on a long trip to the north east will always be tricky.

My prediction: As the winter winds start to swirl at Kingston Park, I think Newcastle will win by 3.

Bath Rugby v Saracens

Bath’s form has been a bit, well, poor. Their only win in their last five league games was the 31-16 win at home to Sale in round four, seeing them slip into sixth place. Still, it’s not as bad as this time last season when Bath were competing with Leeds for the unwelcome title of strongest team in the league.
Exeter spoiled Saracens’ five match winning league run in the last round, but Brendan Venter will be buoyed by the knowledge that his team has won their last six away games played at their opponents’ usual home grounds.  Both teams lost in the LV= Cup last week.

My prediction: Bath are in desperate need to find their form in the absence of their international stars but I think it will be Saracens by 6.

Aviva Premiership Round 7: Previews & Predictions

Can Wasps win this weekend in honour of the newly retired Phil Vickery?

Northampton Saints v Newcastle Falcons

Can anyone stop the Saints? OK, so Saracens beat them at Vicarage Road a month ago but since then Northampton have been unstoppable in both the league and Heineken Cup. The hallmark of a great team is grinding out a win from a poor performance, something Northampton showed against Castres before producing a get out of jail free card in their late comeback over Edinburgh. But Saints are also skilled in putting teams to the sword, making light work of Wasps in their 37-10 away win last weekend. However, international call ups will affect Northampton more than most and I think now could be the perfect time for the Falcons to strike. Saracens were lucky to win at Kingston Park last Sunday, a last-gasp Alex Goode penalty sealing the points in the 15-13 win. Newcastle will no doubt feel frustrated with only a losing bonus point after scoring the only try of the game, but even without Dylan Hartley, Courtney Lawes, Chris Ashton and Ben Foden I think Northampton will have too much for their visitors to handle – especially as Euan Murray and Joe Ansbro could still feature for the Saints with Scotland’s Autumn Internationals only starting on 13 November.

My prediction: It’s a brave man or woman who bets against Northampton at the moment. Second plays 11t - it can only go one way, right? Saints by 12.



Saracens v Exeter Chiefs



Well, well, well, where do I start with Saracens? The future's bright, the fly half's orange? Of course the big news this week is everyone’s favourite tango-tanned rugby player has quickstepped over to Vicarage Road and signed a deal. I am of course talking about Gavin Henson, star of BBC One’s Strictly Come Dancing, who will soon tripping the light fandango in Watford after not playing for 18 months. I can only deduce the signing has come about following fly-half Derick Hougaard’s Achilles injury which could rule him out for the rest of the season. Henson aside, Sarries are doing alright in the league thank you very much. Third behind Irish and Northampton, this week they do battle with Exeter who have slipped down to 10th despite some spirited performances. Last week, leaders London Irish pipped the Chiefs to the post in a very close game at Sandy Park, Gareth Steenson again scoring the majority of Exeter’s points. Sarries scraped a win against strugglers Newcastle last week, Alex Goode showing he can kick the points when the pressure is on. At home and with David Strettle and Brad Barritt released by England coach Martin Johnson, I can only see one winner.
My prediction: Saracens to sashay to a 16 point win.

Gloucester Rugby v Leicester Tigers

Gloucester won this fixture last season and a win against the visiting Tigers would be their fourth successive win in the league and fifth Premiership win from seven this season. Not bad, not bad at all. Now, is it just me, or have Bryan Redpath’s cherry and whites been flying under the radar and quietly doing quite well for themselves? As ever, all eyes are on Leicester, Bath and Northampton. London Irish are leaders so they have been getting plenty of plaudits, and of course, pundits always spare a moment to take a cursory glance at the other end of the table, just to make sure Leeds are still there. But Gloucester, now fourth in the league, are starting to fire after a slightly shaky start, last week’s late Brett Deacon try seeing off a second-half comeback by Harlequins. After a poor couple of seasons by their own standards, are the cherry and whites getting back to their best? This week they will be without second-row Dave Attwood, prop Paul Doran-Jones and centre Mike Tindall who are all away on England duty, whilst Leicester will be without England half-back pairing Toby Flood and Ben Youngs, second row Tom Croft and prop Dan Cole. Hooker George Chuter will available after being released. Last week, Flood kicked all the points in the Tigers’ 21-15 win over Bath and will be missed. Can Billy Twelvetrees step into the breach once again? I imagine so, as strength-in-depth never seems to be a problem at Leicester. However, the Tigers haven’t won on the road in the league since round 20 last season. Add Gloucester’s great record at Kingsholm and I’m going for a home win.
My prediction: Hopefully this will be a high scoring game, and I’m sure Brett Deacon would love to get on the scoresheet against his former club. Gloucester by 7.

Harlequins v Bath Rugby

Fly-half Nick Evans was so nearly the star of the show for Harlequins last weekend, bagging 21 of his side’s 26 points against Gloucester with a try, two conversions and four penalties. However, it wasn’t enough as Brett Deacon broke Quins’ hearts with a late score. Over in the opposite corner to Evans this weekend is England cast-off Olly Barkley, a man who plays at 12 not 10 but has been on regular kicking duties for Bath. Last weekend, Barkley scored all of his side’s 15 points in their defeat at Welford Road and I imagine he will want to put in a performance to make his snub by the England selectors seem to be even more ridiculous. Of course, Sam Vesty is Evans’ opposite number and he will do well to match arguably one of the best fly-halves in the world. Bath look to have lost their way a bit this season, their Heineken Cup dreams already hanging by a thread after two rounds and only winning one of their last four league games. However, they will be boosted by the release of England skipper Lewis Moody for this game and will be looking to end the run of five defeats from their last five visits to the Stoop. David Wilson and Matt Banahan will not feature for Bath, and Quins stars Danny Care and Nick Easter are also kept in the England camp.
My prediction: On current form and at home I think Harlequins will win by 9.

Leeds Carnegie v London Wasps

If ever there was a team who could suck all of the joy out of watching a game of rugby, then at the moment that team is Leeds. It’s not easy for me to admit that as I am a big Leeds Carnegie fan, but their start to the season has been woeful. Six league games, six defeats, rooted to the bottom of the table with only two losing bonus points to show for it. Last Friday’s dire 6-3 home defeat by Sale was a new low – a game Leeds should have won after having the vast majority of possession and attack. Now, flanker Hendre Fourie and hooker Steve Thompson are away on England duty and this Sunday’s task looks set to be a tough one as the struggling Wasps are the visitors to Headingley. Wasps coach Shaun Edwards stated this week that losing to Leeds is not an option. The High Wycombe based club have only won two of their six league games and approach this match on the back of a 37-10 thumping at home by Northampton – their worst loss at Adams Park since 2004. Can they bounce back and get a win to mark the retirement of prop Phil Vickery?  Wasps will be boosted by the return of England call ups Tim Payne, Dominic Waldouck and Dan Ward-Smith who have been released for this game, but they will be without Joe Worsley.   Wasps beware, Leeds did the double over the Londoners last season, the first win kickstarting their climb off the foot of the table. Can Carnegie head coach Neil Back do it again?
My prediction: I doubt it. Leeds look like they are starting to gel but they are still lacking much needed spark in the backline. This one's for you, Raging Bull.  Wasps by 8.

London Irish v Sale Sharks

Finally, leaders London Irish welcome Sale to the Majedski on Sunday afternoon. Both sides will be missing key players, with Sale fly-half Charlie Hodgson being retained by England due to an injured Jonny Wilkinson. Prop Andrew Sheridan is another Shark who won’t be making the trip to Reading along with wing Mark Cueto. Irish will have to do without the guile of Delon Armitage as he bids to wrestle the number 15 shirt back from Ben Foden. Form wise, the Exiles are unbeaten at home in any competition this season and are on a four game winning streak. Sale, on the other hand, made hard work of beating Leeds in an 80 minute snore-fest under Friday night lights to win their third league game of the season. How well will Sale do without the Hodgson running their game? It’s a tough one, and London Irish are one of the teams you would prefer to avoid whilst your star players are bonding at Pennyhill Park. A lot rests upon which version of Ryan Lamb turns up on Sunday afternoon: will it be Ryan Lamb the enigma or will it be Ryan Lamb the assured fly-half? We will have to wait and see.
My prediction: London Irish by 18.

Aviva Premiership Round 6: Previews & Predictions

The Aviva Premiership is back after a two week holiday in Europe.  As ever, it's predictions time...

Leeds Carnegie v Sale Sharks

Leeds are still searching for their first league win of the season after a tough start to their Aviva Premiership campaign. The Yorkshire team is currently four points adrift at the bottom of the table with the 23-9 win over Bucuresti Oaks in the Amlin Challenge Cup their only victory of the season. The pressure is starting to build at Headingley, but a strong performance against Stade Francais last Sunday hinted that things are finally starting to gel.
Now, Carnegie are looking to seal their second consecutive win against local rivals Sale after claiming their first ever victory in their most recent meeting at Edgeley Park last February.
Sale have been in fine form in the European competition, demolishing Petrarca 56-9 and running in 15 tries against Centransa El Salvador in a 97-11 hammering in South Manchester. However, the Sharks have not won away from home in the Premiership since they last visited Headingley Carnegie on 22 November 2009. Sale are struggling for league form this season with only the 21-17 win over Harlequins to their credit.

My prediction: Leeds Carnegie by 7.

Newcastle Falcons v Saracens

The Falcons’ last win was the 22-16 victory over Bourgoin in the European Challenge Cup two weeks ago. Alan Tait’s men have only won once in the league so far this season which was against Wasps on 10th September. Last week they didn’t seem to turn up against Montpellier and slumped to a disappointing 32-8 defeat.
Sarries, on the other hand, have been victorious in four of their five Aviva Premiership clashes but the Fez heads approach this game following back-to-back defeats in the Heineken Cup. Cue a quick rant from Brendan Venter just so we know all is well in the world…
Saracens will still be the favourites when they run out at Kingston Park though and I am backing them to win with ease over 11th placed Newcastle. The Londoners have won four of their last five games in all competitions against the Falcons and been winners in their last five away league games played at their opponents’ regular home grounds.

My prediction: Saracens by 18.

Leicester Tigers v Bath Rugby

Leicester are unbeaten in their last seven clashes with Bath in all competitions, a statistic that goes back to when Bath won 25-21 at The Rec in November 2008.
The Tigers are the only side in the Heineken Cup with maximum points after the first two rounds, but they have made a slow start to their Premiership campaign by their own high standards, winning only their two home games from the five they have played. However, to wheel out the old sporting cliché, Welford Road remains a veritable fortress as Leicester have only lost one game there since September 2008 which was against Saracens on 8th May. Add to that last weekend’s scintillating 46-10 romp over the visiting Scarlets and the Tigers look to have finally found their momentum.
Last Saturday, Bath claimed a crucial 22-6 win at Aironi to keep their Heineken Cup dreams alive. However, Bath’s league form has looked a bit shaky, and the home defeat by Biarritz in the Heineken Cup was a massive blow. Their only previous league win at Welford Road was a nail biting 13-12 on 29 November 2003. Can Bath rediscover the league form that saw them finish with a flourish last season? Not just yet.

My prediction: Leicester by 12.

Gloucester Rugby v Harlequins

If Gloucester beat Harlequins they will be one step closer to celebrating a year’s anniversary since their last defeat at Kingsholm in the Premiership. Wasps were the last team to silence the Shed in a Premiership game on 24th October last year. The history books suggest the cherry and whites are in reasonable shape to win on Saturday, as believe it or not, Harlequins haven’t won at Kingsholm since 1999.
The last seven league games between the two clubs have all been won by the home side on the day. Like Gloucester, Harlequins have won three of their last four games in all competitions. Conor O’Shea’s men are targeting their third consecutive Aviva Premiership Rugby win for the first time since April 2009. If they can beat the Kingsholm hoodoo it would also mark their first league win on the road in 2010.

My prediction: Gloucester by 7.

Exeter Chiefs v London Irish

It is 10 years since the Chiefs last played London Irish and Saturday’s game will be the first time the sides have met at Sandy Park. Exeter will be hoping to continue their excellent start in the Aviva Premiership and claim their first Exiles’ scalp to add to their growing collection from the Premiership. The signs are ominous for league leaders London Irish as the Chiefs have won both of their home league games this season.
The Premiership new boys have also tasted success in Europe, ending a three game losing run with a shock 34-19 win in Bourgoin last Friday. London Irish have won four from five in the league and are currently top thanks to winning bonus points, but their four-game winning run in all competitions was ended by the Ospreys in Swansea on Friday, and the Exiles’ only away win so far this season was 46-12 at Newcastle in the Premiership in round four. This is a difficult one to call as Sandy Park is a tough place to go, but I think the class of Irish will shine through.

My prediction: London Irish by 12.

London Wasps v Northampton Saints

Northampton have started the season strongly and have only lost one game in all competitions – the 24-17 defeat by title rivals Saracens at the end of September.
A successful start in the Heineken Cup saw the Saints build on their narrow home win over Castres to record an excellent second-half comeback and beat Edinburgh 31-27 last Saturday. Stephen Myler was handed the kicking duties once again as the Saints continue to search for their best option at 10. The fly-half seemed to have all the answers and helped himself to a 16-point haul. However, the Saints have never won in their nine previous trips to Adams Park and Wasps haven’t lost there since Newcastle were the visitors on 3 January.
Wasps are also looking strong following a convincing 38-26 win over Glasgow in the Heineken Cup on the back of a hard-fought bonus point against Toulouse. The European break has definitely been a welcome boost for the High Wycombe-based side after they have struggled to come to the boil in the league. Will home advantage play? I’m not so sure.

My prediction: Northampton by 9.

Aviva Premiership Round 4: Previews and Predictions

Laughing it up at the top of the table: Dylan Hartley

Dark clouds have been rumbling in the skies above Leeds this week heralding the start of autumn.  Today we wave goodbye to summer and welcome the onset of dark nights, muddy pitches and freezing your arse off in stadiums up and down the country.  But will the season of falling leaves and woolly hats signal a return to the tedious kick-fest we had to endure at the start of the last Premiership season?

Well, with the new laws surrounding the tackle area, hopefully not, although my favourite gap-toothed pundit, Stuart Barnes, did raise an excellent point on Rugby Club last night.  The benefit of the doubt at the breakdown is now with the attacking team which is a good thing as it promotes quicker ball and a more fluid game.  However, the rules which require the defence to stop and get back to their feet before challenging for the ball allows players on the attacking side to clear them out by flying over the top of the ruck. Will last year's fears of being caught in possession be replaced by ELVs to even it up for the defence?  For once in my life, I agree with Barnes: strong and clear refereeing is needed in this area, now more than ever.

That issue aside, last weekend we were treated to a masterclass of rugby by table-toppers Northampton.  The Saints brushed aside Bath in impressive style to remain the only unbeaten Premiership team.  Then there was the last gasp win for Wasps over rivals Leicester.  A Dave Walder inspired fightback in the second-half saw Wasps triumph in an electric game which finished 37-30 in their favour.  Exeter continued to make the step up to the Premiership look easy by recording their second win of the season, beating Newcastle 22-17.  However, on a personal level, last weekend was a massive disappointment.  Leeds slipped to a 13-0 half-time deficit at home to Saracens which put them out of contention for the rest of the match.  26-14 the final score.  I was not happy.

But what of this weekend?  As ever, here are my previews and predictions:

Saracens v Northampton
The clash of the weekend. Likely to be a bruising grudge match after Saracens won both of the crucial games against the Saints at the back end of last season to take themselves all the way to the Premiership final at Twickenham. Will Brendan Venter start Derrick Hougaard at fly-half as he did last weekend against Leeds? Saints wing Chris Ashton should be back after hobbling off against Bath, a game which saw him bag two tries. Ashton v Sarries new boy David Strettle will be the battle to watch. My prediction: Northampton by 7.

Bath Rugby v Sale. 
Bath need to tighten up on the basic mistakes they made last week and I expect them to do this against Sale, the side who engineered a thrilling late comeback against Harlequins last weekend.  Sale's away form is woeful.  The Sharks have notched up eight losses in a row and just one win, against Leeds last November, in their last 17 trips on the road. My prediction: Bath by 12.

Gloucester Rugby v London Wasps.
Gloucester are yet to splutter into life this season whilst Wasps displayed their mental toughness in their fightback against Leicester on Saturday.  Wasps have won their last five games against the cherry and whites in all competitions, but a trip to Kingsholm is never easy.  My prediction: It will be a tough game, but Wasps to win by 7.

Harlequins v Exeter Chiefs.
Quins committed rugby hari-kari last weekend at Edgeley Park, throwing away a win over Sale due to second-half indiscipline.  Conor O'Shea's men are the only side other than Leeds still searching for their first win and it will be tough against the Chiefs.  The clash between Exeter fly-half Gareth Steenson, top Premiership points scorer, and opposite number Nick Evans will test the calibre of the Chiefs' young stand-off and will be a fascinating contest to watch.  My prediction: Harlequins by 6.

Leicester Tigers v Leeds Carnegie
Is now the best chance Leeds will get to take the scalp of the Champions?  The Tigers look to be lacking a bit of cohesion this term but they are still dangerous in attack and Leeds will do well to contain them.  Carnegie are making yet another slow start to the season and are rock bottom of the table with only one consolitary bonus point from the 22-21 loss at Gloucester.  My prediction: Leicester by 18.

Newcastle Falcons v London Irish
Kingston Park is a tough place to go as the nights start drawing in, but the Exiles will make the trip in buoyant mood after beating Gloucester with relative ease last week.  Again, I see this game being a battle of the fly-halves: Jimmy Gopperth, named at 10 in last year's Opta team of the year, versus nearly-man Ryan Lamb.  My prediction: London Irish by 9.

Aviva Premiership Round 3: Previews and Predictions

Skivington: tall

I'm not very good at this results predictions malarkey.  I've only got a poor 41.67% success rate after round two, but, undeterred I'm giving it another shot this week.  As D:Ream once said, things can only get better, right?

Round three's standout game is Wasps v Leicester, a battle of the arch-rivals who have won 15 Premiership titles between them.  The extra spice this year comes in the form of George Skivington, the towering second-row who made the switch from Adams Park to Welford Road this summer.  The 27-year-old England Saxons skipper is only the third player to make the move from Wasps to rivals Leicester.  Quelle controversy.

Leicester were almost handed their arses on a plate by new boys Exeter last Saturday after trailing 20-10 at half-time.  Luckily for the champions their class shone through in the final quarter to seal a 37-27 win.  A real shame for the Chiefs and a shock to the system for Richard Cockerill's men.  Likewise, Wasps came off second best against Newcastle, the Falcons holding their visitors to a scoreless second half to run out 29-17 winners.  Even though this weekend's fixture is a home tie for Wasps, Shaun Edwards' men need to drastically improve their shoddy defensive effort from last week if they are to take any league points from the Tigers.  I'm not sure they can do it.

The other big game of the round is tonight at Franklins Gardens.  Northampton Saints host Bath in a top-of-the table clash between the two remaining unbeaten sides in the league.  It's a tough one to call, but I'm going for a home win.  Why?  Because I like Dylan Hartley.

Elsewhere, I'm mentally preparing myself for the Leeds v Saracens game on Sunday.  Last Saturday's 22-21 loss at Gloucester was a bitter pill to swallow as a Leeds fan, but unless coach Neil Back has been employing some kind of black magic in the bowels of Headingley Carnegie, I can't see us beating Saffacens this weekend.  However, Christian Lewis-Pratt and James Tincknell both had a very good game against the cherry and whites, so there are still reasons for me to be cheerful.

Here are my predictions:

Northampton Saints v Bath Rugby:  Northampton by 5.
Sale Sharks v Harlequins:  Harlequins by 6.
Exeter Chiefs v Newcastle Falcons:  Exeter Chiefs by 6.
London Wasps v Leicester Tigers: Leicester Tigers by 10.
Leeds Carnegie v Saracens:  Saracens by 12.
London Irish v Gloucester Rugby:  London Irish by 9.

Aviva Premiership Round 2: Previews and Predictions

Gloucester will host Leeds

So what did we learn from the opening round of the Aviva Premiership last weekend?  A few things...

Firstly, Exeter aren't quite the pushovers everyone outside of Sandy Park expected following their shock 22-10 win over Premiership stalwarts Gloucester.

And then there was an opening day defeat for the champions, Leicester Tigers, who fell to a 27-19 loss at the hands of Midlands rivals Northampton, losing key man Toby Flood to injury in the process.

I also learnt that Leeds are still in danger of being a 40 minute team as I watched them fall to a 32-16 home defeat by Bath after being only 10-9 down at half-time.

But it's a marathon not a sprint and no-one is running away with anything just yet.

Here are my previews and predictions for round two:

Leicester Tigers v Exeter Chiefs

Even with Tigers fly-half Toby Flood ruled out with knee ligament damage, Leicester at Welford Road is a much tougher challenge for the newly promoted Chiefs than Gloucester at home.
Exeter became only the second team to win their debut Premiership game after Leeds achieved the feat in 2001 but it is unlikely they will claim the scalp of the reigning champions.  The Chiefs have not beaten Leicester since a 6-0 victory way back in 1966 6-0 and the Tigers have only lost one of their last 34 games in all competitions at Welford Road.
However, the Tigers stumbled to a 27-19 loss at Franklins Gardens on Sunday and will be looking to bounce back against the Premiership new boys to avoid slipping to two successive defeats at the start of the season for the first time in 24 seasons.
Exeter fly-half Gareth Steenson, who kicked 17 points in last Saturday's win over Gloucester, will be key if the Chiefs are to take any league points from fortress Welford Road.

My prediction: It would be less of a fairytale and more of a miracle for Exeter to take anything from this game.  Leicester by 18.

Saracens v Sale Sharks
 
The opening round saw a reversal of fortunes for last year's (almost) all conquering Saracens and relegation battlers Sale.  Sarries find themselves in the unusual position of propping up the Premiership table following their second-half whipping by London Irish on the way to a 33-16 defeat.  Sale, on the other hand, recorded a comprehensive 35-18 win over Newcastle to end their four game losing run in the Premiership.
However, the Sharks need to remember not to try to run before they can walk.  Last season they only managed one win on the road, 24-17 at Leeds last November, and have only won once in 14 previous visits to Vicarage Road.
In contrast, Sarries have won their last three games against Sale and notched up a 58-15 win over Newcastle in their most recent home game.

My prediction: A pretty close game as Sale look to build on last week's win and Saracens aim to get their season started.  Saracens by 6.

Gloucester v Leeds Carnegie

Gloucester and Leeds are both searching for their first win of the campaign after losing out to Exeter and Bath respectively in the opening round.
The cherry and whites have won their last six games against Leeds, whilst the Yorkshiremen's only previous victory at Kingsholm was 33-15 on 9 April 2005.  If Carnegie win on their travels it will consign Gloucester to back-to-back losses at the start of a season for the first time since 2000/01.  However, it will be a big ask, as Gloucester are unbeaten at Kingsholm in any competition since Cardiff Blues won there in the Anglo-Welsh Cup on 8 November.
A sorry stat for Leeds is that they have not won any games in rounds one or two of the Premiership since 2002/03, something coaching duo Neil Back and Andy Key will be keen to fix as they celebrate signing one year extension deals at the club.

My prediction:  Gloucester were ripped apart by Exeter last weekend and will need to shore up their defence if they are to win.  Leeds will take the battle to them up front, but I expect the class of wing James Simpson-Daniel will give the home side the edge in the try-scoring stakes.  Gloucester by 10.

Bath Rugby v London Irish

Bath are chasing their 100th victory at the Rec in their first home game of the season when they host early Premiership leaders Londoon Irish on Saturday.
The men in blue, black and white have won 12 of their last 13 regular season Premiership matches, beating Leeds 32-16 at Headingley last weekend.
Irish defeated Premiership runners-up Saracens at Twickenham on Saturday after a sensational second-half performance.
Despite only losing once in their last five visits to the Rec, the Exiles' away form was poor last season and is an area they need to build on to mount a realistic title bid this term.

My prediction: Last weekend Bath matched Leeds in the forwards battle before their backs outclassed them after the break.  Similarly, Irish's back three turned on the afterburners to scorch Sarries into submission in the second-half.  The belief at Bath is such at the moment that I can't see them losing at home.  Bath by 7.

Harlquins v Northampton Saints

The Saints are looking to end a six season hoodoo against Quins after failing to beat them at the Stoop since September 2004.
Northampton look to have picked up where they left of last season, beating reigning Premiership champions, Leicester Tigers, 27-19 at Franklins Gardens on Sunday.  However Jim Mallinder's men have not won back to back games at the start of a season since the 2004/05 season and they need to decide on the man to fill the number 10 shirt.  Myler, Geraghty or even Joe Ford?  Whoever gets the nod needs to start nailing all their kicks and start turning in consistent performances.
Quins boss Conor O'Shea is adamant this season heralds a new start for the west London club.  With the tiresome Bloodgate saga now behind them, the Quins will be looking to record their sixth consecutive win at home and go one better than the 29-29 draw with Wasps in last Saturday's London Double Header.

My prediction:  A tricky one.  The last four games between the clubs has been won by the home side on the day.  Saints still have some work to do and Quins need to tighten up their defence.  Harlequins to win by 6.

Newcastle Falcons v London Wasps

Newcastle's record against Wasps is hardly glittering.  The northern club's only victory in their last nine meetings was a 12-6 pack-led win at a bitterly cold day at Adams Park last January. 
Saturday's game might be up at Kingston Park, but the pitch will still be firm and Wasps will be able to play their more expansive brand of rugby.
Wasps drew with Quins in a 58-point thriller at Twickenham whilst the Falcons were busy licking their wounds after Sale sent them packing in a comprehensive defeat in the opening Premiership game last Friday.
The Londoners have a strong record at Kingston Park, winning on their last five visits and I think Saturday will see them adding their sixth.

My prediction: Wasps to win by 16.

But what do you think?

Summed up in a Sentence

Stuart Barnes: Everyone's favourite gap-toothed rugby pundit

With the start of the new Aviva Premiership season almost upon us, journos, pundits and bloggers alike have been eager to assess each team's championship winning pedigree or hopes of survival.

I have to admit I have cast my beady little eye up and down the league, looked at all the summer signings and departures and made a few predictions of my own.  Tea leaves not required.

However, instead of banging on for hours about the positives and negatives of each team, I decided that a more concise approach was the way forward. 

Therefore without further ado, here are my thoughts on each Aviva Premiership club in one handy sentence.

Ahem.

Leicester: Steamrolling their way to a third consecutive championship.
Bath: The cream of the West country will rise to the the runners up spot.
Saracens: Dazzling biscuit munchers but falling just short.
Northampton: Always the bridesmaid...
London Irish: Woefully inconsistent.
Harlequins: Occasionally inspiring, mostly frustrating.
Wasps: Dogged but lacking the crucial cutting edge.
Leeds: Most improved but just falling short of the top six.
Gloucester: Another season of mid-table mediocrity.
Newcastle: Dull.
Sale: Unexciting.
Exeter: DOOMED.

Of course I could be totally wrong as I ain't no Stuart Barnes.  Thank God.  But I will say this:  it's going to take a minor miracle for anyone to beat Leicester to the Premiership title this season.  I think Bath and Sarries will push them all the way but they will fall short as they lack that crucial championship winning mentality.

The gulf in class between the Premiership and division one will be shown in stark contrast and I think Exeter will become regular whipping boys (I hate that phrase) and find themselves playing Doncaster and Rotherham again next season.

But who knows?  Just don't call me Stuart.

Aviva Premiership Round 1: Previews & Predictions

It's here: the eagerly awaited and brand spanking new Aviva Premiership season.  It's difficult to predict which teams will fly out of the blocks, fired up and ready to build on last year's performances.  Likewise, with only the form of pre-season games to go on it's tricky to work out which teams will sleepily stretch their way through their first game like a bunch of bears waking from hibernation.

Regardless, it's time for me to wheel out my previews and predictions for another season.  This year I've got a certain element of added pressure as I've signed up to the SportGuru prediction league.  This means my haphazard predictions and punditry success will be there for all the world to see.  I suppose I shouldn't be worried, after all I won a three month's supply of Yazoo milkshakes for coming out on top with my Six Nations predictions.  I kid you not.

Anyway, moving swiftly on.  Here are are my predictions for Round 1:

Sale Sharks v Newcastle Falcons

The new Aviva Premiership Rugby season kicks off at Edgeley Park for the second consecutive year.  Cast your mind back and you might remember Sale beating Leicester 15-12 this time last September.
At the end of last season, both the Sharks and Falcons found themselves thrashing it out at the bottom end of the table, embroiled in the closest relegation dogfight for years.  As a result, both sides have a new chief this term in a backroom shake-up.  Mike Brewer is arguably Sale's most crucial signing of the summer and he will look to lead Sale to their first win over Newcastle since the 14-9 win at Kingston Park back in September 2008.
The Falcons, now coached by Alan Tait, have won on three of their last four visits to Stockport, most recently in the penultimate round last year where they ran out 32-30 winners.  However the absence of New Zealand prop Carl Hayman who moved to Toulon in the summer will hurt the Falcons, as will the return of Sale and England loosehead Andrew Sheridan.

My prediction:  Still pretty evenly matched but I think a newly invigorated Sale will shake off last season's woes and claim their first win.  Sale by 6.

London Irish v Saracens

The first of two games to be played at Twickenham on Saturday in the wonderfully billed "London Double Header".
Saracens' form was sparkling last season and Brendan Venter's men made it all the way to the Premiership final.  However Sarries were left wearing runners-up medals thanks to a late Dan Hipkiss try which sealed a 33-37 win for Leicester in the best final in years, if not ever.
This loss added another blot to Saracens' record at HQ, which reads two wins and four defeats.  However the fez heads have a slightly better record in previous London Double Headers, winning three and losing three.
In contrast, Irish's season petered out last term, slipping out of the top four in a lacklustre finish which saw them fall to three straight defeats.  The most notable of these was their woeful 23-13 loss at home at the hands of Leeds in April.

My prediction: History and last season's form don't count for much on the opening day, but I think Saracens will pick up where they left off.  Saracens by 9.

London Wasps v Harlequins

Game two in the double header sees Wasps clash with Quins.  Wasps have won on their last three encounters with Harlequins and also ran out victors on both the previous occasions when the clubs met at Twickenham.
In fact, Harlequins are winless in their last three visits to Twickenham since their 24-21 victory over Saracens in September 2008.  Last season was fairly inconsistent for the Quins and new boss Conor O'Shea is no doubt relishing his first full season in charge after picking up the reigns mid-way through last term.
With the seemingly never ending Bloodgate saga hopefully done and dusted, I think Quins, under the watchful eye of O'Shea will be pushing the top four all the way this season.
Wasps on the other hand, will undoubtedly miss the talent and work-rate of second-row George Skivington who left Adams Park to join reigning champions Leicester this summer.  Paul Sackey and a certain Danny Celebriani also parted company with the club, but the return of a fully fit Riki Flutey from Brive will bolster the backline.

My prediction: A tough one to call for the opening round as both sides ended up pretty much honours even last year.  Wasps to win by 6.

Exeter Chiefs v Gloucester

The first Premiership game at Sandy Park sees the cherry and white troops of Gloucester descend this Saturday afternoon.
It's going to be a tough season for the Chiefs as they embark on their fight to stay in the top flight.  Along with Leeds they have less cash at their disposal than the other clubs and as a result have not been able to attract any big name signings over the summer.  Of course they are an unknown quantity and could throw up a few surprises, but I think they will be few and far between.
Gloucester failed to win anything last season, plummeting to seventh in the Premiership table and falling to Northampton in the LV= Cup final.  However, boss Brian Redpath's side will be too experienced for the Premiership new boys, and I expect an easy win for the visitors which will set the tone for the rest of Exeter's season.

My prediction:  Gloucester by 12.

Leeds Carnegie v Bath Rugby

My beloved Leeds.  Zero wins from four in pre-season but who's counting?  These sides last met at the Rec in the final round last season where the boys in blue, black and white demolished Premiership survivors Leeds 39-3.
In fact, Bath have won their last five matches against Leeds in all competitions but despite a poor pre-season Carnegie finished strongly last season, winning three of their last four home games.
Sunday will be the third time Bath have visited Headingley in round one.  In 2001 they lost 10-6 before recording a 44-32 win in 2003.  Possibly the most memorable game between these two sides was in November 2004, where an Olly Barkley try in the dying seconds saw Bath came from behind to win 30-28.
New faces for Bath in the guise of former Leeds wing Tom Biggs and England captain and ex-Leicester flanker Lewis Moody will add a bit of extra spice to proceedings, but Leeds have England hooker Steve Thompson in their ranks now.  If the game involves any form of pie-eating contest then I think we'll know who will be the winners.
Leeds have not won on the opening weekend of a Premiership season since they defeated Leicester 26-13 at Headingley in 2002.

My prediction: A new season and time for Leeds to kick on.  I hate predicting the result for my team, but in round one I'm going to be positive.  Leeds by 3.

Northampton Saints v Leicester Tigers

Last but by no means least, it's the East Midlands derby between reigning Premiership Champions Leicester and last year's somewhat surprise package Northampton.
The Saints' home form was outstanding last season.  They fell to only two home defeats in all competitions last term, interestingly both by Saracens in their last two matches.
Add to that the fact Northampton have won their opening Premiership game every year since 2002 with only one blip in 2005, a 32-0 loss against Leicester no less, and their case for a win is strong.
Leicester, have in fact lost their opening game of the season in three of the last four years and their only other visit to Franklin's Gardens in round one was in 1999 when the Saints won comfortably by 46-24.
However everyone knows just how irritatingly good the Tigers are.  They're not back-to-back Premiership Champions for nothing.

My prediction:  Another really tough one to call.  Leicester might have lost England captain Lewis Moody to Bath over the summer but they have strength in depth from one to 15.  Leicester to win by 6.

I'm back...

Powering into the new season...

It's been a while since I've blogged and good while since the end of last season. 

I'd like to say I've spent the summer months doing something worthwhile, like trekking through Borneo and helping to set up a Orangutan sanctuary. However that would be a lie.  Instead I've spent the off season gallivanting around East Yorkshire and watching Leeds Rhinos get ritually humiliated in the Challenge Cup Final.  Oh, and seeing my fantasy football team plummet to the bottom of my office mini-league after the first three weeks...

Well never fear.  The brand spanking new Aviva Premiership starts this weekend and I couldn't be more excited.

Picking up where they left off last season, my beloved Leeds Carnegie play Bath at Headingley this Sunday.  The fact that Leeds have failed to win one of their pre-season fixtures is not a massive issue.  I mean, they played against the might of teams like the Ospreys, Ulster, Agen, Doncaster....  Let's gloss over that.

I'll get back on the prediction horse later this week and tomorrow I will analyse each Aviva Premiership teams' chances for this season in one sentence.  I am nothing if not concise.

T minus two days 'til it all kicks off.  Happy days.