As per usual, I'm back with my somewhat haphazard predictions for the weekend. It's Heineken Cup action again, and this week my predictions will be reaching a much wider audience on The Rugby Blog. No pressure then...
Pool 1
Castres v Cardiff Blues
Cardiff will be without the guile of the seemingly never aging Martyn Williams for a tricky trip to the south of France. The 35-year-old flanker was banned for two weeks after pleading guilty to kneeing Chris Paterson in the head during last Saturday’s 18-17 win over Edinburgh. Cardiff’s opponents, Castres, earned a surprise losing bonus point at Franklins Gardens in their opening Heineken Cup fixture last Friday. If Bruce Reihana and Shane Geraghty had slotted all of the penalties on offer it could all have been oh so different, but now Castres, currently languishing 10th in the Top 14, arguably have as good a chance of anyone to progress from the pool.
My prediction: Cardiff by 9.
Edinburgh v Northampton
Saints supporters will no doubt have spent countless sleepless nights over the woes at fly-half. Stephen Myler, Shane Geraghty and now Bruce Reihana all seem equally keen to take their turn wearing the wayward kicking boots. Five missed place kicks against Castres wasn’t enough to lose Saints the game but it was hardly a glittering start to their European campaign. Saturday’s trip to Murrayfield will be the first time Northampton have played Edinburgh in a decade, and it looks set to be a close match. Edinburgh’s losing bonus in a hard-fought game at the Cardiff City Stadium leaves pool one wide open but they must back this up with a home win against the Saints. Jim Mallinder’s men have only lost one of their Aviva Premiership games, to Saracens, whilst Edinburgh have only won twice in the Magners League from their opening five fixtures.
My prediction: Northampton by 12.
Pool 2
Racing Metro 92 v Clermont Auvergne
Heineken Cup new boys and Top 14 leaders Racing host last year’s Heineken Cup quarter finalists and reigning league champions, Clermont. Racing kicked off their tournament with a five try hammering by Leinster in a real baptism of fire at the new Lansdowne/Aviva/call it what you want Stadium last Saturday. However, Racing should not be underestimated, boasting players of the calibre of Sebastien Chabal, Lionel Nallet and Francois Steyn. Clermont eased to a 25-10 win over Saracens, France scrum-half Morgan Parra calling the shots and weighing in with two penalties and two conversions. However, lock Jamie Cudmore will not feature for the visitors after being slapped with a 10 week ban for kicking and trampling on Sarries’ flanker Jacques Burger. Racing beat Clermont 28-17 when the teams last met in the Top 14 on 1 September.
My prediction: Racing Metro 92 by 7.
Saracens v Leinster
Saracens, like Racing, are looking to get their first points on the board after failing to take anything from Clermont last weekend. However, the task facing Brendan Venter’s men will be tough as Leinster arrive hot on the heels of an electrifying bonus-point win in round one. The men from Dublin might not have started the league season in scintillating form with only two wins from five, but the 2008/09 Heineken Cup champions look to have saved their best form for Europe.
My prediction: Leinster by 8.
Pool 3
Ospreys v London Irish
The Ospreys were narrowly pipped to a win in the south of France thanks to a moment of magic from Jonny Wilkinson and Paul Sackey. However, a bonus point on the road in arguably the toughest pool is not to be sniffed at. London Irish opened with a 23-17 win over Magners league leaders and three time Heineken Cup winners Munster, fly-half Ryan Lamb pulling the strings in an assured performance which included four penalties and a drop-goal. A must win game for the Ospreys if they are to progress from the pool.
My prediction: Ospreys by 6.
Munster v Toulon
Munster’s never say die attitude saw them claim a last-gasp try and with it a losing bonus point at the Majedski last Saturday – something which could help swing the pool their way come January. Jerry Flannery could make his first appearance this season after being included in the squad following his recovery from a back and calf injury. However, Sam Tuitupou will not feature in the game at Thomond Park. The centre has been banned for three weeks for a dangerous tackle on London Irish scrum-half Paul Hodgson. Toulon made hard work of their home tie against last year’s quarter-finalists, the Ospreys, but can they go one better and claim a win at the cauldron that is Thomond? Possibly. This game has all the potential to be an absolute classic, if the French decide to turn up…
My prediction: Munster by 7.
Pool 4
Aironi Rugby v Bath
Aironi look like the favourites to wear the tag of whipping boys this year. The Italians, currently propping up the Magners League in their debut season, lost 30-6 to Ulster at Ravenhill last week. The lowlight? A kick-chase by Ian Humphreys and some poor defending which saw the Ulster fly-half touch down for a speculative score. Bath were left reeling on Sunday when four second-half penalties by Dimitri Yachvilli inspired Biarritz to a 12-11 win at the Rec. The less said about Bath’s drop-goal that never was the better. Losing a home game in the Heineken Cup really piles on the pressure which means nothing less than a bonus-point win will do for Bath.
My prediction: Bath by 18.
Biarritz v Ulster
Biarritz may have beaten Bath last weekend but they certainly weren’t firing on all of the cylinders that took them to the Heineken Cup final in Paris last May. Yes, as the old saying goes, French teams don’t travel well, so beware Ulster this weekend – the raucous Basque crowd will expect them to deliver. Ulster are fresh off the back of a convincing home win over Aironi and a bonus point would be a great result. Biarritz are currently eighth in the Top 14 so Ulster might fancy their chances after a strong start to their Magners league campaign. I just hope Stuart Barnes tones down his adoration of Imanol Harinordoquy…
My prediction: Ulster by 6.
Pool 5
Leicester v Scarlets
Could this be the game of the weekend? I think so. Last weekend the Scarlets were rampant against Perpignan, Rhys Priestland scorching over for two tries and Regan King dazzling the Parc y Scarlets crowd with an exquisite pass the almighty BOD would have been proud of. Leicester have started the league season slowly by their own high standards, but they sealed a late bonus point win in Treviso thanks to the rampaging power of centre Alesana Tuilagi. The Tigers will no doubt be boosted as fly-half Toby Flood looks set to make his comeback along with flanker Ben Woods. However, centre Dan Hipkiss is ruled out with a hamstring strain in yet another injury blow. This is a really tough game to call as the Scarlets are red hot but not many teams come away with anything from a trip to Welford Road.
My prediction: Leicester by 3.
Perpignan v Benetton Treviso
Perpignan claimed a losing bonus point in the 43-34 defeat by the Scarlets after running in five tries at Parc y Scarlets last Saturday. Treviso, in comparison, had to settle for a disappointing bonus point after Leicester snatched a late win. The Tigers scored five tries which is worrying for Treviso as Perpignan are just as capable of putting them to the sword. However, a game against Treviso does not mean a sure fire win as fellow Magners league sides the Dragons, Leinster and the Scarlets will testify. I expect the Italians to give Perpignan a good run for their money but I don’t think they will take any points from this game.
My prediction: Perpignan by 14.
Pool 6
Newport-Gwent Dragons v Toulouse
The Dragons are looking to bounce back from a 21-13 loss at Glasgow in their first home Heineken Cup game against, oh, tournament favourites and holders Toulouse. The French side boasts international stars from one to 15, but the Dragons could be boosted by the return of Wales forwards Luke Charteris and Gavin Thomas. Despite this, Dragons head coach Paul Turner claimed the match-up is like Preston North End taking on Real Madrid. So he’s confident then. Last weekend, David Skrela kicked all 18 points in Toulouse’s hard-fought win over Wasps in monsoon-like conditions. If it’s dry in Wales this weekend there’s every chance we might be treated to some magic from a certain Mr Yannick Jauzion. Or Clement Poitrenaud. Or ….
My prediction: Toulouse by 16.
Wasps v Glasgow
Wasps fly-half Dave Walder almost inspired the High Wycombe based club to a historic win against European giants Toulouse in last Sunday’s clash. The torrential rain levelled the playing field with Wasps just falling short in the 18-16 defeat. Wasps’ prop Tim Payne will sit this one out after a receiving a two week ban for a handbag waving session with Brett Deacon and stamp on Jim Hamilton in the Aviva Premiership game with Gloucester last month. Glasgow ended their four game losing streak last weekend with a win over the Dragons at Fir Hill, Ruaridh Jackson slotting three penalties and a conversion. I think Wasps will win this one though – they know how to grind out results and securing a bonus point against Toulouse will have massively boosted their confidence.
My prediction: Wasps by 9.
What do you think?
Showing posts with label round 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label round 2. Show all posts
Friday, 15 October 2010
Friday, 10 September 2010
Aviva Premiership Round 2: Previews and Predictions
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| Gloucester will host Leeds |
Firstly, Exeter aren't quite the pushovers everyone outside of Sandy Park expected following their shock 22-10 win over Premiership stalwarts Gloucester.
And then there was an opening day defeat for the champions, Leicester Tigers, who fell to a 27-19 loss at the hands of Midlands rivals Northampton, losing key man Toby Flood to injury in the process.
I also learnt that Leeds are still in danger of being a 40 minute team as I watched them fall to a 32-16 home defeat by Bath after being only 10-9 down at half-time.
But it's a marathon not a sprint and no-one is running away with anything just yet.
Here are my previews and predictions for round two:
Leicester Tigers v Exeter Chiefs
Even with Tigers fly-half Toby Flood ruled out with knee ligament damage, Leicester at Welford Road is a much tougher challenge for the newly promoted Chiefs than Gloucester at home.
Exeter became only the second team to win their debut Premiership game after Leeds achieved the feat in 2001 but it is unlikely they will claim the scalp of the reigning champions. The Chiefs have not beaten Leicester since a 6-0 victory way back in 1966 6-0 and the Tigers have only lost one of their last 34 games in all competitions at Welford Road.
However, the Tigers stumbled to a 27-19 loss at Franklins Gardens on Sunday and will be looking to bounce back against the Premiership new boys to avoid slipping to two successive defeats at the start of the season for the first time in 24 seasons.
Exeter fly-half Gareth Steenson, who kicked 17 points in last Saturday's win over Gloucester, will be key if the Chiefs are to take any league points from fortress Welford Road.
My prediction: It would be less of a fairytale and more of a miracle for Exeter to take anything from this game. Leicester by 18.
Saracens v Sale Sharks
The opening round saw a reversal of fortunes for last year's (almost) all conquering Saracens and relegation battlers Sale. Sarries find themselves in the unusual position of propping up the Premiership table following their second-half whipping by London Irish on the way to a 33-16 defeat. Sale, on the other hand, recorded a comprehensive 35-18 win over Newcastle to end their four game losing run in the Premiership.
However, the Sharks need to remember not to try to run before they can walk. Last season they only managed one win on the road, 24-17 at Leeds last November, and have only won once in 14 previous visits to Vicarage Road.
In contrast, Sarries have won their last three games against Sale and notched up a 58-15 win over Newcastle in their most recent home game.
My prediction: A pretty close game as Sale look to build on last week's win and Saracens aim to get their season started. Saracens by 6.
Gloucester v Leeds Carnegie
Gloucester and Leeds are both searching for their first win of the campaign after losing out to Exeter and Bath respectively in the opening round.
The cherry and whites have won their last six games against Leeds, whilst the Yorkshiremen's only previous victory at Kingsholm was 33-15 on 9 April 2005. If Carnegie win on their travels it will consign Gloucester to back-to-back losses at the start of a season for the first time since 2000/01. However, it will be a big ask, as Gloucester are unbeaten at Kingsholm in any competition since Cardiff Blues won there in the Anglo-Welsh Cup on 8 November.
A sorry stat for Leeds is that they have not won any games in rounds one or two of the Premiership since 2002/03, something coaching duo Neil Back and Andy Key will be keen to fix as they celebrate signing one year extension deals at the club.
My prediction: Gloucester were ripped apart by Exeter last weekend and will need to shore up their defence if they are to win. Leeds will take the battle to them up front, but I expect the class of wing James Simpson-Daniel will give the home side the edge in the try-scoring stakes. Gloucester by 10.
Bath Rugby v London Irish
Bath are chasing their 100th victory at the Rec in their first home game of the season when they host early Premiership leaders Londoon Irish on Saturday.
The men in blue, black and white have won 12 of their last 13 regular season Premiership matches, beating Leeds 32-16 at Headingley last weekend.
Irish defeated Premiership runners-up Saracens at Twickenham on Saturday after a sensational second-half performance.
Despite only losing once in their last five visits to the Rec, the Exiles' away form was poor last season and is an area they need to build on to mount a realistic title bid this term.
My prediction: Last weekend Bath matched Leeds in the forwards battle before their backs outclassed them after the break. Similarly, Irish's back three turned on the afterburners to scorch Sarries into submission in the second-half. The belief at Bath is such at the moment that I can't see them losing at home. Bath by 7.
Harlquins v Northampton Saints
The Saints are looking to end a six season hoodoo against Quins after failing to beat them at the Stoop since September 2004.
Northampton look to have picked up where they left of last season, beating reigning Premiership champions, Leicester Tigers, 27-19 at Franklins Gardens on Sunday. However Jim Mallinder's men have not won back to back games at the start of a season since the 2004/05 season and they need to decide on the man to fill the number 10 shirt. Myler, Geraghty or even Joe Ford? Whoever gets the nod needs to start nailing all their kicks and start turning in consistent performances.
Quins boss Conor O'Shea is adamant this season heralds a new start for the west London club. With the tiresome Bloodgate saga now behind them, the Quins will be looking to record their sixth consecutive win at home and go one better than the 29-29 draw with Wasps in last Saturday's London Double Header.
My prediction: A tricky one. The last four games between the clubs has been won by the home side on the day. Saints still have some work to do and Quins need to tighten up their defence. Harlequins to win by 6.
Newcastle Falcons v London Wasps
Newcastle's record against Wasps is hardly glittering. The northern club's only victory in their last nine meetings was a 12-6 pack-led win at a bitterly cold day at Adams Park last January.
Saturday's game might be up at Kingston Park, but the pitch will still be firm and Wasps will be able to play their more expansive brand of rugby.
Wasps drew with Quins in a 58-point thriller at Twickenham whilst the Falcons were busy licking their wounds after Sale sent them packing in a comprehensive defeat in the opening Premiership game last Friday.
The Londoners have a strong record at Kingston Park, winning on their last five visits and I think Saturday will see them adding their sixth.
My prediction: Wasps to win by 16.
But what do you think?
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