Monday, 21 December 2009

75% or Bust

My Heineken Cup predictions for Round 3 weren't exactly the best as I only successfully managed to pick 50% of the winners.  Therefore I hoped to do better with my predictions for Round 4 so I could reassure myself that I do kind of know what I'm talking about a bit.  You know, when the wind is blowing in the right direction and when Stuart Barnes and Dewi Morris disagree on The Rugby Club. (Which is, admittedly, most of the time, but I've got to have something to aim for haven't I?).

Dewi and Stuart (first and second left) post argument.

So how did my dabbling in the world of future-gazing go last week?  All is revealed...

Edinburgh 9-6 Bath
I predicted that Edinburgh would beat Bath by 7, but heavy snow and blizzard-like conditions meant that both sides opted for a kicking game to try and minimize errors which resulted in the low scoring result.  Still, at least I called the winner, so this one is CORRECT!

Leicester 20-15 Clermont Auvergne
Had it not been for a late penalty being awarded to Clermont (for which Lewis Moody knew little about when the ball bounced into him as he stood in an offside position) then Leicester would have denied Clermont the bonus point and won by a margin of 8.  I predicted that Leicester would win by 10, so it would have been close.  As it is, Clermont's Brock James slotted the penalty and Leicester won by 5.  I'll still take the win.  CORRECT!

Leinster 39-7 Scarlets
I said Leinster would win by 16 points, but men from Dublin practically laughed in the face of such a trivial score line difference and notched up a win by 32 big fat points.  Even after their impressive win at Parc Y Scarlets in round three I didn't expect quite so much ritual humiliation for the Scarlets at the RDS, but there you go.  I suppose Rob Kearney's spilling of a few high balls gave the Scarlets a glimmer of hope.... until he showed them he can also cross the try line with ease instead.  Oh well.  CORRECT!

London Irish 34-13 Brive
I predicted that London Irish would win by 18 points but Chris Malone thought an extra cheeky penalty score was the order of the day meaning that the actual win was by 21.  Again, not bad with only a 3 point swing on the Predict-o-meter, so I'm pretty pleased with my crystal ball gazing for this game.  CORRECT!

Newport-Gwent Dragons 8-26 Biarritz
I predicted Biarritz to win by 14 points and they actually triumphed by 18.  Not bad.  CORRECT!

Ospreys 45-19 Viadana
I said the Ospreys would win by 35 points, especially as 15 traffic cones would have given them a more challenging workout than Viadana did in the previous round.  As it was, the Ospreys beat Viadana by 26.  Not quite the out and out drubbing I envisaged, but still a comprehensive win.  Therefore I was CORRECT!

Toulouse 23-7 Cardiff Blues
Toulouse beat Cardiff by more than double the 6 points which I predicted.  Maybe I was being a bit kind to the Blues and was hoping that they'd take a bonus point back to Wales.  Alas this wasn't to be, but at least I predicted the winner.  CORRECT!

Treviso 18-21 Northampton
Not by 10 points as predicted, but in difficult, freezing conditions, I'm happy with the win.  CORRECT!
Gloucester 19-6 Glasgow
My prediction of Glasgow to win by 9 materialised into Gloucester winning by 7.  So pretty much the exact opposite of what I said would happen...  WRONG DIDDLY WRONG WRONG.

Perpignan 14-37 Munster
I said Perpignan to win by 5.  Munster said "A losing bonus point!  Pah!  Make that a winning bonus point to top the group."  I was miles off.  SO WRONG IT'S NOT FUNNY.

Sale 21-17 Harlequins
This is better.  I tipped Sale to win and I said I thought this game would have a much closer result than the previous round.  OK so I said that Sale would win by 6 when they actually won by 4, but that's pretty close.  I must have my new favourite spa treatment to celebrate: an Edgeley Park mud bath.  CORRECT!

Stade Francais 29-16 Ulster
Hmm, I hoped that Ulster would be able to string together two winning performances, but sadly the Samson-esque might of Ian Humphrey's beard couldn't propel them to victory in an icy Brussels.  FAUX.

That means, by my basic calculations, that I correctly predicted 9 results out of 12, which gives me a 75% success rate.  Hurrah!

Right, I'm off to go and do some last minute Christmas shopping to celebrate, and then write a post about what happened prior to the Leeds Carnegie game yesterday...

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