Six Nations Top Trumps: Wales

"We need to get off to a good start. If you don’t get off to a winning start, there is that added pressure and you’re always chasing.”

I couldn't agree with you more, Warren Gatland. 

Beware Martin Johnson's England on 6 February when Wales arrive at Twickenham.  Wales' coach Gatland is certainly talking the talk.  Gatland has focused on the inexperience of the England scrum as a weakness that will be targeted by his British and Irish Lions filled pack.  But will Wales fire in 2010?  In last year's tournament they slipped to a disappointing 4th place after clinching the Grand Slam in 2008, and losses to Australia and South Africa at Cardiff in November wasn't the ideal preparation.  Wales have two tough games away from home: at Twickenham on the opening weekend and then across the Irish sea at Croke Park.  With key players sidelined due to injury and with pundits questioning Wales' mental toughness, the pressure to perform is on. 

Here are their ratings:

Scrum: 85/100.
Wales have an excellent tight 5 including an all Lions front row in Adam Jones, Matthew Rees and Gethin Jenkins.  Alun Wynn Jones and either Ian Gough or Luke Charteris will add power in the boiler room.  Wales' opening game is against England at Twickenham, who with the absence of Sheridan and Vickery, are likely to field an internationally inexperienced front row.  Games are won and lost based on what happens up front, and the scrum is where Wales will look to dominate.  And I think they will.

Line-Out: 70/100.
With Alun Wynn Jones, Gough/Charteris and Ryan Jones as the jumpers, and Matthew Rees as the hooker, this is another set piece where Wales should excel.

Attacking Flair:  71/100.
Shane Williams is fit and will play on the wing, as will fellow Lion Leigh Halfpenny.  It's a shame that scrum-halves Mike Phillips and Dwayne Peel both miss the competition due to injury, as both are classy playmakers who snipe around the fringes of the scrum.  Richie Rees has been in fine form for the Cardiff Blues at this position though and is one to watch.  World class full back Lee Byrne will play against England after having his ban for being the Ospreys' 16th man in the Heineken Sup game against Leicester overturned.  Stephen Jones might not be a flamboyant fly-half but his magic point scoring boot more than makes up it.  And then there's Lion and Baa-Baa, Jamie Roberts, who is yet another world class player in the Wales team.  All in all, there is attacking flair oozing from this team, but can they string it together?

Defence:  45/100.
Wales' defence was well and truly dismantled in the 33-12 defeat by Australia in November.  The Wallabies ran in four tries which almost made Wales' defence coach, Shaun Edwards, implode with anger.  With such an array of attacking backs, Wales will have to tighten up on their defence to avoid leaving gaping holes on the counter attack.

Stadium: 73/100.
Millennium Stadium.  Capacity 74,500.

Snore Factor: 35/100.
It all depends if the Wales squad of 2010 will emulate their inconsistent performances of last year or their Grand Slam campaign of 2008.  I think it's likely to be somewhere in between based on their opposition, with flashes of brilliance balanced with a certain lack of incision.

Phwoargh Factor: 55/100
Lee "Tango Tan" Byrne, James "I'll play anywhere" Hook and Jonathan "No, not the pundit" Davies are the main attractions in this category.  Mike Phillips is a big loss in this department, and some might argue that the lesser spotted Gavin Henson will be missed.  On the whole it's slim pickings though, unless you like big hair that is.  If that's the case, then Adam Jones is the man for you.

Scandal Potential: 34/100.
Medium.  Nothing too controversial, but I'd suggest that Wales' opposition keep taking a quick headcount during the game, just to make sure that Lee Byrne hasn't sneaked on from the sidelines.

As for the final standings:
Last season: 4th.
Prediction for this season: 4th.

The Welsh Haka

The buzz around the Autumn Internationals has really been building this week.  Can Martin Johnson's cobbled together experimental England side overturn the Aussies at Twickenham?  Sadly I doubt it, and I think that even a reinvigorated Wilkinson will struggle to engineer a victory over the Southern Hemisphere opposition.

Still, I will gladly be proven wrong.  I'd say Australia will win by 6-10 points.

Over in the Wales camp, Mystic Warren Gatland has been hyping up the media single-handedly with his joss-stick waving beliefs that New Zealand have lost their aura, and that without Carter and McCaw in the team they are quite "vulnerable".

Dan Carter looks petrified at the threat of Wales

OK Warren, well we'll see about that.  New Zealand to win by at least 15 points.

The thing I'm really keeping my fingers crossed for this weekend is a repeat of the Wales vs New Zealand staring competition that we saw when these two sides last faced off.  If you haven't see it before, check out the video below:

Classic.

Hopefully Wales will raise their game this time by throwing a little Welsh dancing into the mix when they front up to the infamous New Zealand Haka.

Shane Williams was always first on the dancefloor

I can see it now:  Ryan Jones twirling Leigh Halfpenny around and Stephen Jones doing a solo jig. 

That will definitely strike fear into the hearts of the All Blacks.

A Round of Missed Opportunites

This year's Heineken Cup Round 2 has to go down as one of the tightest in recent years, and whilst my predictions weren't too far off, certain teams have got to feel like they've really missed an opportunity to stamp their authority on the competition.

First up was Sale vs Cardiff Blues, and even though I thought this would be a closely run encounter I didn't see it going right down to the wire and finishing 27-26. The harsh sin-binning of Cardiff's resident Whitesnake impersonator Andy Powell saw Sale amass a quick 14 points and a lead that remained one point too many for the Blues to conquer.

Elsewhere Northampton fell short at a reinvigorated Perpignan, with the French team bouncing back from a shock defeat in the rain soaked opening round against Treviso. I really thought Northampton might pull a surprise victory out of the bag in the south of France but it wasn't to be. The only souvenir they took away from a bruising visit to the one time home of the luscious Dan Carter was a severe crack of whiplash for the suitably D'Artagnan-bearded Ben Foden, when he was unceremoniously dumped on his arse by the human bulldozer that is Henry Tuilagi. If you missed this expert demolition using an illegal shoulder charge then you can view it again here:

Ouch.

Yesterday I watched the Brive vs Leinster game which was a penalty strewn and scrappy affair saved only by the dynamic running of Leinster hot bod Rob Kearney to score the opening try, quick hands from Brian O'Driscoll, and an excellent performance from man of the match Kevin McLauglin. Another almost faultless performance from Jonny Sexton will undoubtedly have Ronan O'Gara reaching for the Horlicks to try and avoid many sleepless nights in the run up to the autumn internationals: If ever there was an international number 10 in waiting then Jonny Sexton is the man.

That aside, Leinster will be disappointed not to come away from France with a winning bonus point, especially against a Brive side that didn't offer too much other than constant indiscipline. Still, at least this provided a quick burst of handbag waving entertainment to liven up the end of this rather uninspiring game, when Brian O'Driscoll and Andy "Timotei" Goode indulged the crowd with a gentle slapping competition. Maybe Andy is just jealous of Brian's superior hairline?

Away from France, London Irish will be left to rue a missed chance thanks to a last gasp penalty for the Scarlets courtesy of Sesame Street's Count (aka Stephen Jones). This game finished up 25-27 with London Irish undoing all their good work with an away win away at Champions Leinster last round. Oh well, serves you right for beating my favourite Irish team.

Stephen Jones is the man counting the win

Tonight, the Harlequins and Bath players will probably all be at home swigging bottles of gin whilst they freeze their nads off in ice baths after both teams lost their second pool game of the tournament. This pair of losing performances pretty much ends their chances of progressing to the next round, which is a shame as both sides were comfortably leading this weekend's games at half time before they both committed Heineken Cup hara-kiri.

The final team who really missed a chance to press home their advantage in the competition was Clermont Auvergne who lost 25-24 at the Ospreys. I really wish I'd watched this game, as despite leading 22-3 at half time, the Ospreys almost threw it away to a resurgent Clermont side. Unfortunately for all the Welsh ladies out there, Mike Phillips hobbled off with a foot injury just before half time, which means that the much less attractive Dwayne Peel might get a shout for the international games next month. Never mind, I'm sure he has some fans out there - probably the same ones that fancy his twin brother: Emmerdale's Andy Sugden.

Finally (and most importantly) this afternoon I witnessed the rare event that is a bonus point victory for Leeds Carnegie. In a game littered with the usual smorgasbord of Leeds handling errors which included several passes flying into touch or being fumbled to the floor, Leeds out muscled a rotund Parma side and secured the bonus point with just over ten minutes of the game remaining.

As the scoring opportunities went begging in the first half I did wonder if Leeds were lacking the killer instinct and would be able to punish the Italian side who looked like they'd spent far too much time woofing pizza then doing bench-presses at the gym. Happily, for every mistake Leeds made Parma made two, which allowed a much changed Leeds side to press home for victory and rack up the points in the second half. Leeds ended the game with an impressive scoreline of 37-13 but they are certainly going to have to raise their performance and banish the sloppy guiseppe style mistakes before next Sunday when they take a trip down the M1 to top of the table Saracens. If they don't tighten up I can't see anything happening apart from a ritual humiliation in front of the Vicarage Road faithful.

Anyway, let's see how my predictions fared against the results this weekend:

(Correct predictions highlighted in bold)

Newport-Gwent D'gons 22-14 Glasgow
Perpignan 29-13 Northampton
Sale 27-26 Cardiff Blues
Biarritz 42-15 Gloucester
Brive 13-36 Leinster
Edinburgh 17-13 Ulster
Harlequins 19-23 Toulouse
London Irish 25-27 Scarlets
Munster 41-10 Treviso
Viadana 11-46 Leicester
Bath 27-29 Stade Francais
Ospreys 25-24 Clermont Auvergne

Not too shabby at all as I only missed out on two correct predictions. I'm really rather pleased with myself!

Anyway, that's all for now. A review of the eagerly anticipated Lions 2009: Living with the Pride DVD is coming soon...