Heineken Cup Round 3: Previews and Predictions

The Heineken Cup rolls into town this weekend to provide an early festive feast of rugby. I’ve picked out the key games for the previews but you can find the rest of my predictions below. In Pool One, Northampton hope to make it three wins from three against Cardiff Blues, while Pool Two sees Leinster travel to Clermont, the French side hoping to exact revenge after last year’s quarter final defeat at the RDS. Munster host the Ospreys in Pool three’s big clash and the final game I’ve chosen to focus on is Leicester’s trip to Perpignan – both huge games between the top teams in their respective pools. As always, please let me know what you think in the comments.





Northampton v Cardiff Blues

Northampton are almost unbeatable at the moment. I say almost as the only game they have lost this season was a league game at the hands of Saracens. The Saints are now on a run of nine unbeaten games in all competitions, which would probably have been 10 had their match against Leeds not been called off last weekend. Northampton nearly tripped up against Castres in the Cup in round one but now the Frankins Gardens based club looks like a much more organised and well-oiled machine. Prop Soane Tonga’uiha is joint top try-scorer in the league, and along with Dylan Hartley and Brian Mujati, the Saints front row is a dynamic, ball carrying unit that dominates at the set-piece. We all know what the Saints’ backline is capable of, even without England boys Ben Foden and Chris Ashton. This is a massive worry for Blues boss Dai Young, who will be without Wales centre Jamie Roberts, Wales wing Leigh Halfpenny, full-back Ben Blair, lock Deniol Jones and prop Rhys Thomas. It’s an extensive injury list but Cardiff will be boosted by the return of the seemingly never aging flanker, Martyn Williams and John Yapp from Barbarians duty. The visitors also have key man Xavier Rush at number eight, and along with Casey Laulala at centre Northampton could have a few problems – but probably not enough to derail them.

My prediction: It’s a brave man or woman who bets against the Saints at the moment, especially at home. Northampton to win by 12.

Clermont v Leinster

Who can forget last year’s quarter final between these two sides at the RDS? Clermont fly-half Brock James imploded and missed kick after kick after kick to let Leinster progress to the semi-finals. Clermont’s away form has been poor this season but they are fantastic at their home ground, Parc des Sports Marcel Michelin. Defensively Clermont are aggressive and they beat Top 14 leaders Toulouse 32-25 last weekend. ‘Petit Generale’ Morgan Parra will be the key man for the home side, especially now he has taken the pressure away from Brock James in the goal kicking department. Leinster number eight Jamie Heaslip will need to neutralise the sniping scrum-half, and without Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald, and a big doubt over the fitness of Brian O’Driscoll, Leinster will be pleased to come away with a losing bonus point. As an interesting sideshow, this game has the extra frisson of seeing Leinster coach Joe Schmidt return to the club he left last season after a stay of three years.

My prediction: Both of these sides lie seventh in their respective leagues and this game will be a fascinating rematch after last year’s tense quarter-final. However, away from home and with injury issues, I think Clermont will come out on top by 9 points.

Munster v Ospreys

This is certainly one of the biggest fixtures of the round. The Ospreys travel to Thomond Park in search of their first Heineken Cup win over two time Cup winners Munster. The Welsh club have beaten the Irish province there in the league on the way to the title last season, and if they are to win this weekend they must take the wily Munster forwards on at the breakdown. Paul O’Connell looks set to make his comeback for the home side after missing most of 2010 - a massive boost for Munster at this crucial point in the season. However, things aren’t quite as rosy for the Ospreys. Full-back Lee Byrne is ruled out with a broken thumb after he kind of forgot to get it checked out not once, but twice. Shane Williams is also sidelined with a shoulder injury while back-row forward Marty Holah serves a one match ban. Last week, Munster beat Cardiff Blues 15-9 in the league to stay in top spot while the Ospreys beat Edinburgh in a convincing 33-16 performance at the Liberty Stadium.

My prediction: This is first plays second in Pool three and a win for either side would put them in a strong position to qualify. Can the Ospreys break the Heineken Cup hoodoo at Thomond Park? I don’t think so. Munster by 8.

Perpignan v Leicester

A win in Perpignan would show that Leicester are really starting to fire. The Tigers won their first league game away from home last weekend when they beat then second place London Irish 23-14 at the Madejski. It was the perfect preparation for Richard Cockerill’s men ahead of their trip to the south of France, leapfrogging the Exiles into second place in the Aviva Premiership and reminding themselves they can win on the road. Perpignan are a lowly 10th in the French Top 14 and lost 23-13 last week away at Castres. However, the Stade Aimé Giral is an intimidating place to go and the Tigers will need to be at full strength to wrestle any points from the Catalonian bear pit. England fly-half Toby Flood is fit and will play alongside Ben Youngs at half-back. But the big threat can be found in the forwards as the home side have an impressive pack. Leicester will need to match Nicholas Mas and chums at the set piece but looking at the way they demolished London Irish’s scrum last week, including being awarded a penalty try, they could be in good shape. However, watch out - Perpignan number eight, Henry Tuilagi, will be exerting massive force in the back row and looking to get one over his brothers Alesana and Manu.

My prediction: Travelling such a long way is tough and Perpignan will be a real test for the Tigers. However, I think Leicester might just nick this one and all but seal their progression from the pool stages. Leicester by 3.

And here's my predictions for the rest:

Glasgow v Toulouse – Toulouse by 5.

Aironi Rugby v Biarritz – Biarritz by 18.

Castres v Edinburgh – Castres by 9.

Saracens v Racing Metro 92 – Racing by 6.

Scarlets v Benetton Treviso – Scarlets by 8.

Ulster v Bath – Ulster by 10.

London Irish v Toulon – Toulon by 9.

Newport-Gwent Dragons v Wasps – Wasps by 8.

Exeter Aiming to Keep on Track

Stay on TrackHave a gander at this video of Exeter Chiefs during an off roading team building session.

Skipper Tom Hayes, Jason Shoemark, Chris Budgen and head coach Rob Baxter all reflect on their season so far and look forward to this Sunday’s game against London Wasps.

If the Chiefs win at Adams Park they will leapfrog their hosts into sixth place in a remarkable start to their first season in the top flight.

Aviva Premiership Round 10: Previews and Predictions

Wear your thermals this weekend...

It’s day six of the snow-induced chaos and already three Aviva Premiership games have fallen victim to the artic conditions. Both Friday night fixtures have been called off meaning Bath’s trip to Newcastle and Gloucester’s trip to Sale will have to be rescheduled.  Leeds v Northampton has also been postponed due to health and safety fears about ice around the ground.

Here are my previews and predictions for the games that have survived the snowy weather (at the time of posting).


London Irish v Leicester Tigers

London Irish are having something of a mid-season wobble at the moment. The Reading based club has lost four consecutive games in all competitions since their league win over Sale a month ago. However, the Exiles’ home form in the league has been 100%, claiming four wins from four at the Majedski. The fact that Leicester, reigning champions and hot on Irish’s heels in third, have failed to win any of their away games this season will not have gone unnoticed. In this fixture last year, Irish ran out 18-12 winners, so home form and recent history looks to favour Toby Booth’s men. Saying that, the Exiles were outclassed in all areas against Northampton on a chilly night last Friday. Defensively they looked frail and a rampaging Soane Tonga’uiha destroyed them at scrum time and in the loose. I’m sure the Leicester pack will be salivating at the prospect of taking on a team following such a demoralizing defeat, even without key man Tom Croft who is ruled out with a shoulder injury.

My prediction: I’m tipping Leicester to start firing during the cold snap. Tigers to win by 12.

Saracens v Harlequins

This week the news from the Saracens camp all been focused on the departure of their controversial director of rugby, Brendan Venter. The former Springbok centre is set to return to South Africa and has moved into a newly created technical director role and is replaced by first-team coach Mark McCall. Whether this has damaged preparations for this weekend’s game or not remains to be seen, but I think it must have created at least some form of distraction. Saracens’ form has dipped slightly in the past month. The men in black have only claimed one win in their last three games which has seen them fall to fifth in the table. However, Sarries have won their last two games against Harlequins who arrive at Vicarage Road on the back of an emphatic 51-18 win over Leeds. The result was only the second time Quins have ever clocked up a half century in a league game – the other was the 60-14 hammering of Worcester in April last year. A win for Conor O’Shea’s Quins would be their first away from home in the Premiership since their trip to Leeds 12 months ago.

My prediction: Despite the off field shufflings at Saracens, I think they will edge this game. Sarries by 9.

London Wasps v Exeter Chiefs

Exeter are currently seventh in the league after a brilliant start to their first season in the top flight. Whisper it quietly, but a top six finish and Heineken Cup place must surely have crossed the mind of head coach Rob Baxter. If the Chiefs are to end the season in the top half of the table they need to beat teams like Premiership and European rugby stalwarts, Wasps. The two sides have already met this year in the LV= Cup. On that occasion Exeter ran out 29-6 winners at Sandy Park. However, after an unsteady start to their league campaign, Wasps have notched up three straight wins and have risen into sixth place. The Londoners’ only league defeat at home came at the hands of leaders Northampton on 24 October. Can Exeter pull another shock out of the bag? Quite possibly. The newly promoted side are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions, and have not lost on their travels since the trip to title favourites Northampton on 2 October.

My prediction: This is the most difficult game for me to call this week. Exeter have been brilliant so far but Wasps are slowly coming to the boil. I’m going to go with home advantage and say Wasps to win by 5.
 
What do you think?

So long Mr Venty Spleen (sort of...)

Last night it was revealed that Brendan Venter, everyone's favourite pantomime villain, is heading back to South Africa.

With a swoop of his cape and a maniacal laugh, the 40-year-old Saracens' director of rugby is exiting stage left and returning to his homeland citing "family reasons."

When you see the name Brendan Venter it is usually accompanied with the words "colourful", "headstrong" or sometimes even "arrogant."  However, I will miss all the hoopla surrounding one of the most controversial figures in rugby when he jets off back to the southern hemisphere.

The former centre's knuckles must be red-raw from all the raps he's received during his 18-months at Saracens.  Firstly, he was served with a four-week suspended sentence in January for criticising referee David Rose.  Then he was slapped with a 10-week match-day ban in May for "provocative and inappropriate gestures and comments" towards opposition fans - also known as doing the wanker sign, allegedly.

This forced Venter to watch Saracens play, and subsequently lose, last season's Premiership final from the discomfort of his own living room.  Add into the mix criticism for the way he ate a biscuit during a disciplinary hearing and the fine he was given last month for remarks made after a Heineken Cup tie, and you can see why the media is sad to see him go.

However, there does seem to be another side to Venter's personality.  I saw an interview with him on The Rugby Club a few months ago which went some way to quash the image usually presented of the former Springbok.  Sarries players spoke of him warmly and talked about how Venter, a qualified doctor, had visited them at their homes when their children were sick - such is the family focus at Vicarage Road.

It's not a side of Venter that is seen very often.  I suppose it ruins his panto villain image and he can't be having that - especially at this time of the year when Z-list celebrities are dusting off their Widow Twanky costumes.

Therefore, I think it is real a shame that Venter is stepping down and moving into the newly created role of technical director.  He will continue to advise from afar while first-team coach Mark McCall becomes director of rugby and Andy Farrell takes McCall's old job.

Vilified and commended for his style in equal measure, it is no doubt the Aviva Premiership will be a much duller place without the ever controversial Brendan Venter.

PS: He's behind you.

DAN! DAN! DAN!

That's right, today is all about Dan Carter.


Carter lining up the kick which passed Mehrtens' record

Yeah, yeah, the blooming red rose of England is playing the wounded Springboks at Twickenham this afternoon, but let's be honest, today is all about one man.

Carter, New Zealand's first choice fly-half, only needs three more points to surpass Jonny Wilkinson's world record haul of 1178 in test match rugby.  Unless hell freezes over, it looks certain the 28-year-old All Blacks star will achieve this feat against Wales today.

Regular readers of my blog will know I have a mild obsession with Dan Carter so I had to mark the day he will undoubtedly break Wilkinson's long-standing record.

Last November, I watched Carter pass Andrew Mehrtens' total of 967 points to become New Zealand's all time highest points scorer from my lofty perch in Twickenham's west stand.  Today, I won't be at the Millennium Stadium to see him pull the strings and kick the points and probably guide New Zealand to yet another win.  However, I will be recording the match so I can watch him work his irrepressible magic and cruise past another landmark.

Good luck Dan.  You're an absolutely brilliant, world class player and you deserve all the plaudits you get.

Aviva Premiership Round 9: Previews and Predictions

It's that time of the week again where I cast my beady little eye over the weekend's Aviva Premiership fixtures.  There's a couple of tasty looking games, with first place Northampton playing host to second place London Irish.  Saracens make the journey across the M4 to Gloucester with hopes of ending the cherry and whites' 17 game unbeaten home run, whilst lowly Leeds are looking to get their first league win of the season at The Stoop.

But who will win?  Like a drunk bloke hoping for a bit of 3am nookie, here's my weekly stab in the dark:

Northampton Saints v London Irish

This looks set to be the clash of the weekend in the Aviva Premiership.  First plays second.  Northampton are flying high at the top of the league, a clutch of youngsters impressing in last week's 19-10 comeback over Sale at Edgeley Park.  Nothing seems to be able to stop them at the moment but Toby Booth's Exiles are hot on their heels and might have something to say about that.  The Saints have won on their last three meetings with Irish, whilst the Exiles' last victory at Franklin's Gardens was a narrow 21-20 win six years ago.  And Northampton are now on an impressive run of eight consecutive wins in all competitions even though they are missing key players thanks to international call-ups.  Strength-in-depth seems to be the order of the day for the Saints, which is all credit to the coaching team led by Jim Mallinder.  Northampton's opponents, London Irish, slipped up against Wasps last Sunday.  The 33-25 defeat was the first time the Exiles failed to take a league point from a Premiership game this season.

My prediction: The understrength Saints fought back in Stockport and ended Sale's winning run.  Against London Irish at home?  It's a tricky one to call.  A little controversially, I'm going for Irish to win by 7.

Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks

This prediction is something of a shot in the dark (as if the rest of them aren't...) as Exeter and Sale have never met before in any competition.  The Chiefs might be the Premiership's newest team but they

will not fear the Sharks this weekend.  Instead, Exeter will start the game as favourites after rising to 7th in the league.  They can also boast a four game unbeaten run in all competitions. Sandy Park is proving to be a tricky place to go - the Chiefs have only lost there once in the league this season, in a narrow 12-9 defeat by London Irish in round six.  Last Friday, Sale deflated like a punctured spacehopper against Northampton, and the sorry statistic facing Sharks head coach Mike Brewer is that their only win in their last five Premiership matches was the turgid 6-3 victory at Leeds Carnegie a month ago. However, despite last week's home defeat, the Sharks' recent form as been good, winning three of their last four away games in all competitions.

My prediction: It's a long way from Manchester to Exeter and it is a trip into the unknown for Sale.  Exeter by 9.

Leicester Tigers v Newcastle Falcons

Both these sides got back to winning ways last weekend.  The Tigers ended their four game losing run in all competitons with their 18-13 home win over Harlequins last Friday.  Over at Kingston Park, Falcons fly-half Jimmy Gopperth outkicked Gloucester counterpart Freddie Burns to score all the points in their 12-6 win, only their second in the league this season.  Leicester have won three of their last four games against Newcastle and even though international call ups have weakened their side they will be confident.  The last, and in fact only time, the Falcons have won at Welford Road was almost 13 years ago.  Are Newcastle going to pull a massive shock out of the bag this week and beat the Tigers?  Not if the wonderful 36, aka Billy Twelvetrees, has anything to do with it.  The Tigers stand-in stand-off has been in fine form in Toby Flood's absence and has been key in keeping the Tigers ticking over.

My prediction: Leicester by 12.

Gloucester Rugby v Saracens

Gloucester came away from a wintry Kingston Park with a losing bonus point last weekend, ending their four game winning run in the league.  But fear not, cherry and white fans, they are unbeaten for more than a year at Kingsholm since Cardiff Blues won there in the Anglo-Welsh Cup on 8 November 2009.  That's a 17 game unbeaten run - something which pantomime villain, the wonderful Saracens head coach Brendan Venter, will be looking to dash this weekend.  Watch out Gloucester, he's behind you.  And Gloucester really should watch out.  Last weekend, Venter threw a load of youngsters into the mix against Bath where they fought back to claim a 17-13 win at the Rec.  The star of the show was 19-year-old Owen Farrell, son of, you've guessed it, Great Britain rugby league and Saracens star, Andy Farrell.  And Sarries' form is good.  Their only loss in their last seven league games was at home to Exeter at the end of October.  Can Gloucester maintain their home run or will Venter conjure up yet another win?

My prediction:  Another tricky one to call.  Part of me thinks Venter will do it again, but Gloucester's home record isn't to be sniffed at.  Gloucester by 8.

Bath Rugby v London Wasps

Bath seem to be veering off the rails at the moment and look to be trying their best to replicate the woeful run of form from start of last season which saw them slump to 11th in the league.  Their only win in their last six games of Aviva Premiership Rugby was the 31-16 win at home to Sale in round four. However, home form is becoming a huge issue as the men in blue, black and white have only won one of their last four games at The Rec in all competitions.  That was the 29-19 win over Cardiff Blues in the LV= Cup on 5 November.

After starting the season looking like shadows of their former selves, Wasps have started to string together some form and have now won three of their last four league games.  Last weekend they outscored London Irish and a late Dave Walder penalty denied the Exiles a losing bonus point.  Bath and Wasps have already met this season, the Londoners beating Steve Meehan's men 18-16 in the LV= Cup at Adams Park two weeks ago.

My prediction:  Looking at recent form I'm going to have to plump for a Wasps win by 9.

Harlequins v Leeds Carnegie

As the weeks pass by it pains me more and more to write previews for any game involving my beloved Leeds.  Why?  Because it forces me to remember just how hopeless they've been this season.  Winless in the league after the first eight rounds and seven points adrift at the bottom of the table, it's becoming increasingly hard to see where they will get their first win.  And this weekend's task won't be an easy one.  Harlequins have won their last four games against Leeds, whilst Carnegie haven't won at The Stoop since 2003.

But there is a glimmer of hope as Quins are winless in their last three league games.  However, their home form is pretty good, as they have lost just one of their last 11 matches at The Stoop in all competitions. Leeds' problems are worse still as they only have one hooker available following injury to Andy Titterall and Steve Thompson's England call-up.  This means head coach Neil Back has been left searching for cover and being forced to rely on former Leeds hooker, conditioning coach James Parkes, on the bench.  I fully expect Harlequins fly-half Nick Evans to rip the visitors to shreds.

My prediction:  Probably another big defeat for Leeds.  Harlequins to win by 18.

But what do you think?

McCaw wins IRB Player of the Year... again

Sod off, the trophy's mine.

Not really. Well, not yet anyway.

Yes, it's the that time of year where the powers that be at the International Rugby Board have announced the runners and riders for this year's IRB Player of the Year.

Joining reigning Player of the Year, New Zealand skipper Richie McCaw, on the shortlist are team-mate Mils Muliaina, France number eight Imanol Harinordoquy, Australian duo David Pocock and Kurtley Beale and South Africa's Victor Matfield.

It's an interesting, if slightly uninspiring selection.  No doubt gap-toothed gypsy and Sky Sports pundit, Stuart Barnes, was salivating into his Cornish pasty when he saw his ultimate commentating wank-fodder, Biarritz and France back-row forward Harinordoquy, in the top six.  McCaw's New Zealand team-mate, full-back Muliaina, has enjoyed a good season and starred in the All Blacks side that swept to an impressive clean sweep in this year's Tri-nations.  Only a Bledisloe Cup loss to Australia in Hong Kong created an annoying blot on New Zealand's copy book this season. McCaw, along with Dan Carter, was the crucial cog in a well-oiled All Blacks machine.

Wallaby flanker David Pocock has been immense at the breakdown and his inclusion is the one I am most pleased about.  The 22-year-old openside flanker has burst onto the international stage and it would be a brilliant achievement if he is the man to dethrone opposite number McCaw.  Pocock has arms as wide as Tim Payne's waist, is rumoured to be able to bench press a Ford Mondeo and could probably pluck a plane out the sky if he could be arsed.

His fellow green and gold team-mate, Kurtley Beale, is a full-back brimming with blistering pace - something England found out to their peril a couple of weeks ago.  To be honest, I expected Quade Cooper to beat him to the final list.  Then again, the Australia fly-half tackles as effectively as an arthritic cat with mild depression, which probably ruled him out.

And then there's Victor Matfield.  I have one question:  Why?

But who do you think should win, and who would you have liked to have seen on the list?  There's only one way to find out.  I've created a poll which you can find on the right-hand toolbar.  If there's someone you would have voted for but who isn't included, then please feel free to vent your spleen in the comments.

As for me?  Well, it's got to be McCaw again, hasn't it?