Superstition Ain't The Way...

I hate you Stevie Wonder

Happy New Year!


I know, I know, it’s five days late. Well, it’s taken me that long to recover. No, not from stuffing my face like a fat kid over Christmas or overindulging in one too many shots of sambuca on New Year’s Eve (ouch my head). The reason why I’ve not posted sooner is because I have simultaneously been singing from the roof tops but then stopping to shake my head and think about what I have done. You see, on 1 January, Leeds Carnegie achieved something they’ve been as desperate for as Sam Allardyce waiting for a call from Italy. Neil Back’s men banished the winter blues by sealing their first Aviva Premiership win of the season by beating Gloucester 15-13. Great eh? For me, as a huge Leeds fan, it was brilliant. The best start to the year I could have hoped for. Carnegie were fresh from back-to-back wins in the Amlin Cup after their Boxing Day clash with relegation rivals Newcastle was called off and boy did it show. 

Except I wasn’t at Headingley to witness by beloved team notch up their first league win of the season. Instead I was sitting in the back of a Volkswagen Touran speeding along the M62. Not exactly how I saw that one going in my head if I'm honest. You see, I was on my way home from celebrating New Year’s Eve in Preston with my friends. I know, Preston. Hardly glamour central of the world and a bit of a random choice, but we went to a comedy club and it was all fine until that journey home. Why? I wasn’t hungover, none of use were. There was no chundering out of the window or grimacing about the previous night's antics as we had all been very well behaved.  It’s because I was missing the game. Following the score and updates on Twitter just isn’t the same, especially when it’s accompanied by the sound of your friends singing ‘Crazy for You’ by Let Loose at the top of their voices.

As we sped past Huddersfield I couldn't believe what I was seeing.  I’d picked Leeds to win by three points  but it was more in hope than with belief. Gloucester were enjoying a run of good form in the league and in Europe so surely it couldn’t be? Well, Twitter was telling me it might, as the score poised on a tantalising 10-10 at half-time.

Now not one to throw a tantrum about missing the game I quietly sat in the back of the car. After some speedy driving my friend dropped me off home at 2pm. Kick-off had been at one so I knew if I rushed I might just make it to catch the end of the match. I jumped in the car knowing I faced a race against time. So why did I bother? I could have just watched the highlights with smiley-faced rugby-novice Craig Doyle on ITV4 later on that night. Not an option. You see, it’s one of my superstitions of supporting a team. Call me weird if you like, but I have two big match-day superstitions.  I can’t go to a game wearing something I’ve bought after the start of the season as it brings bad luck. I did it once to a Leeds Rhinos game and they lost. I accidentally did it again the following week and they lost again. Facing the wrath of my then boyfriend and the mounting coincidence it quickly became a superstition I hold to this day. The Rhinos won every other live game I watched that season.

The only other superstition I have is if my team has been on a run of bad form but win when I’ve not been watching them I can’t go to another game until they lose. That is why I’ve been totally over the moon that Leeds claimed their first league win but totally bummed out at the same time. Being a good fan, I want my team to win all of their remaining games and climb to mid-table mediocrity. Being a season ticket holder, this is annoying. However, this is Leeds I’m talking about and the next home game in the league is Leicester Tigers. Chances of them winning that game? Low. Chances of them winning if I don’t go….?

Damn you superstition.

The Guinness Premiership Relegation Run In

Now that the Six Nations has whimpered to an uninspiring conclusion it's all eyes back to the Guinness Premiership, Magners League and Heineken Cup.

As we approach the so called 'business end' of the season, I'll be looking at the teams jostling for position at the top of the Premiership and those fighting for survival at the bottom.

First up, I will cast my eyes over the teams hoping to avoid the dreaded trapdoor.

But which team will come up short?

Will Worcester be saved from the drop by scrappy bonus points?

Can Leeds Carnegie continue their recent winning streak and climb away from the Championship?

Do Newcastle have what it takes to stay in the top flight?

Or will Sale survive despite a torrid run of form?

The Guinness Premiership table

With only six rounds left the battle at the bottom is really hotting up.  Unlike previous seasons, the team that will fall by the Premiership wayside is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Home games are all important in the fight for Guinness Premiership survival, but so are the head to head matches between the teams at the bottom.

Sale play fellow relegation battlers Worcester and Newcastle in their run in, but crucially for Kingsley Jones' men both these games are at home.  The Sharks beat Wasps in their game in hand (also known as Pizzagate take two) to claw their way up to 10th.  However Sale's form has been dire recently, and prior to the win over Wasps they were suffering their worst run in the league since the 2000/01 season.

Leeds approach the final half dozen fixtures on the back of a three game winning streak in the league.  However the two week break won't have helped their momentum. Carnegie only two home games left to play - the lowest of all the teams facing the drop.  These are against high flying Northampton, and what promises to be an epic relegation dogfight against bottom of the table Worcester in the penultimate round.  Still, three of Leeds' five Guinness Premiership wins have been on the road, so this won't trouble Neil Back's men unduly.

Worcester are currently bottom of the pile and have tough games against top four teams Leicester and Wasps.  Wuss also face London Irish, who are pushing for a top four finish.  However all these games are at home, and in their last six matches Worcester only have to two games away from Sixways.  These matches are against fellow relegation fodder Leeds and Sale, which puts extra pressure on Mike Ruddock's team to at least win a couple of bonus points at home.

Newcastle have a nasty run-in, but they will take heart that they have already beaten Wasps and drawn with Sale this year.  Gloucester, Harlequins, Leicester and Saracens aren't the teams you want to be playing at this point in the season, especially as the spectre of relegation is looming.

But what about Harlequins and Gloucester?  Surely these two supremos won't be dragged down into the relegation dogfight? 

Probably not, although Quins did fall into the Championship in the 2004/05 season.  However the reality is that Quins and Glaws are only four points ahead of Newcastle and five points ahead of Sale and Leeds down in 10th and 11th.  Even bottom of the pile Worcester are only two wins away from overhauling these Premiership giants.  So it is possible that if, albeit rather unlikely, that if Gloucester and Harlequins make a hash of their home games, they could find the last few weeks of the season rather uncomfortable.

So what are each teams' chances of survival?  Here is what I think:

Gloucester

Points: 32
Position: 7th
Fixtures: Newcastle (A), Leeds (H), Saracens (H), Northampton (A), London Irish (H), Worcester (A)

Survival chance: As good as Bear Grylls living on a diet of twigs and dangleberries.  4.5/5.

Harlequins

Points: 32
Position: 8th
Fixtures: Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Leeds (H), Saracens (A: Wembley), Leicester (A), Sale (H)

Survival chance: Wins against two of the three strugglers Newcastle, Leeds or Sale will see them safe.  Quins might have experienced a few problems with blood, but nosebleeders they are not. 4/5

Newcastle

Points: 28
Position: 9th
Fixtures: Gloucester (H), Saracens (A), Harlequins (A), Leicester (H), Sale (A), Wasps (H)

Survival chance: Yuk. If the Falcons are to survive it's going to be tough. 1.5/5.

Sale

Points: 27
Position: 10th
Fixtures: London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Harlequins (A)

Survival chance: Everything rests on the outcome of the games against Worcester and Newcastle.  Win these and Sale are in with a shout.  Lose them both and Sale are sunk. 1/5.

Leeds

Points: 27
Position: 11th
Fixtures: Gloucester (A), Northampton (H), Harlequins (A), London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Bath (A)

Survival chance: It's by no means an easy run in, but recent wins over Saracens and Wasps show Leeds could have what it takes to stay up. 3/5.

Worcester

Points: 25
Position: 12th
Fixtures: Leicester (H), Sale (A), London Irish (H), Wasps (H), Leeds (A), Gloucester (H)

Survival chance: It's another tough batch of games and the match at Leeds looks like it will be crucial.  However, Worcester have a habit of surviving against the odds. 3.5/5.


So by my calculations the toothless Sharks will be swimming in the Championship next season.

Well, unless they are saved by the fiasco of the Championship playoff system that is.

But what do you think? 

Will Sale be the ones plummeting through the Guinness Premiership trapdoor on Saturday 8th May?