The Final Shakedown

After Sunday's epic Guinness Premiership semi-finals we have a tasty clash between Leicester Tigers and Saracens to look forward to at Twickenham on May 29.

Leicester smothered Bath into submission in a 15-6 tryless affair, whilst Sarries squeaked past Northampton Saints 21-19 at Franklins Gardens.

Each game was packed with twists, controversy and bucket loads of irony.

Who can forget one-time Sarries bound Soane Tonga'uhia steaming over for a Saints try on the stroke of half time?  Did Toby Flood's high flying penalty really count for the Tigers?

And then there were the subplots: The extra needle between Saints and Sarries after Celebrationgate, the alleged tapping up of Northampton prop Brian Mujati by Saracens, Brendan Venter's misconduct charge.

All the extra needle created an afternoon of high drama, and I for one, loved it.

The final results?  Heartbreak for Saints and Bath, heaven for Leicester and Saracens.

And it should be a storming final in a couple of weeks. 

My faith in English club rugby has been fully restored.  Roll on Twickenham in two weeks time.

I, for one, cannot wait.

Saints Stars look ahead to Saracens Semi-Final

Northampton Saints host Saracens in their much anticipated Guinness Premiership semi-final this Sunday.

Here, Saints stars Ben Foden, Stephen Myler and Lee Dickson talk about the game.

Guinness Premiership Semi-Finals: Previews & Predictions

The run up to the Guinness Premiership semi-finals has been packed with more drama than an over the top soap opera.

Saracens overturned both Northampton and Leicester on the road in the last two rounds, crushing both clubs' hopes of an unbeaten home campaign in the league.

In the process, Sarries riled the Saints by singing and celebrating too loudly - much to the annoyance of Northampton skipper Dylan Hartley.

And then it was the turn of Brendan Venter, Saracens director of rugby, who caused a furore when he allegedly pushed a female fan during the game at Welford Road.  He swiftly followed this up by criticising Martin Johnson's selections for the England tour to Australia, apparently vexed that none of his squad were being given a plane ticket down under.

Elsewhere, Bath continued their amazing run of form when they swatted aside Leeds Carnegie to seal their semi-final spot.  Richard Cockerill's Leicester will be back to face them after Sarries put them to the sword.

As semi-finals go, these are really tough to call.  Here goes nothing.

Leicester Tigers v Bath Rugby

It is ominous for Bath that their only loss in their last 12 league games was at the hands of Leicester.  The men in blue, black and white were outclassed 43-20 at Welford Road by the reigning champions on 3 April.

However, Bath were missing key players that day.  There was no Luke Watson or Danny Grewcock for starters.

In the last few weeks Bath have been sublime.  Switching the point of attack, Olly Barkley has been everywhere.  Nick Abendanon can attack from all over the pitch, and that man Watson is a dynamic ball carrier with a deft offload.

It will be interesting to see if Steve Meehan's men will follow their recent game plan and start this match at 100mph.  If Bath are to win they need to get on top of Leicester, front up in the forwards and stop the Tigers' pack from smothering them and controlling play.

The Tigers will target Bath's lineout as an area of weakness, and veteran Danny Grewcock will need to marshal the forwards in this crucial set piece.

As I said at the start of this post, Leicester's six game winning run in the Guinness Premiership ended at the hands of visiting Saracens on Saturday.  However, the Tigers will have put that to the back of their mind.  They are well used to the business end of the season - this is the sixth straight year they have been in the playoffs.

Worryingly for Bath, Leicester have won their last eight semi-finals in all competitions since Wasps beat them in the Powergen Cup at Millennium Stadium in March 2006.  The Tigers' most recent semi-final defeat at Welford Road was way back in April 1995, again to Wasps but this time in the Pilkington Cup.

This is Bath's third semi-final appearance in a row - a remarkable achievement after lying 11th in the Guinness Premiership table at the half-way stage of the season.

As for the winner of this game?  It's a tough one to call.  Leicester have the home advantage, forward power and set piece domination.  Bath are riding on the crest of a wave and have dangerous play makers in their backline.

My prediction:  My heart says Bath but my head says it will a home win for the Tigers.  The team with the biggest heart will win.  Bath by 6 points.


Northampton Saints v Saracens

If Bath are riding on the crest of a wave then Saracens are surfing right alongside them.

Sarries grabbed a moral-boosting 28-27 win over Northampton in the penultimate round of the regular Guinness Premiership season, and added insult to Saints' injury by celebrating a bit too much for their rivals' liking.

Now, Northampton are gunning for both a place in the final and a good dose of revenge.

Brendan Venter's team is red hot at the moment.  Gone is the rugby-by-numbers kicking game from the first half of the season, and in its place is expansive, offloading play.

Key men for Sarries are wonder-hooker Schalk Brits and full back Alex Goode.  Goode has been fantastic in recent weeks, gliding onto the ball and popping up in all the right places.  Brits' skills have been showcased week after week - he is my tip for the player of the year.

But what of Northampton?  Last week's 31-7 win over London Irish secured the home semi-final after back to back defeats.  When asked if his side were tired, skipper Dylan Hartley angrily denied it, saying he was sick of hearing it and it just wasn't true.

So if Northampton aren't tired, are they ready?  Most definitely.  Everyone knows about top try scorer Chris Ashton on the wing, the power and carrying ability of prop Soane Tonga'uhia and the amazing skills and versatility of back row Phil Dowson.  But what of the crucial number 10 shirt?  Will this be filled by Stephen Myler or Shane Geraghty on Sunday?  In my opinion, it's got to be Myler.  He will control the game much better than Geraghty and will bang over the kicks.

This game is going to be fascinating.  If Northampton can throw everything at Sarries as they did when Munster made the trip to Franklins Gardens then they'll stand a great chance of making the final.  But despite all the controversy, Sarries are the team bang in form, and beating them will be a tough ask.

My prediction:  It's another head v heart battle to call the winning team.  My heart says Northampton, and I would really love for Jim Mallinder's men to go all the way to the final.  However, my head says Saracens, especially after their wins over the Saints and Leicester in the last couple of weeks.  Don't hate me Saints fans.  Saracens to win by 9.

But what do you think?

Guinness Premiership Previews & Predictions: Round 22

Round 22 is the final instalment of this season's Guinness Premiership before we enter into the top of the table playoffs.

Leicester have already secured a home semi-final and Worcester's relegation was confirmed in the last round. 

But who will grab the other home semi-final?  Will it be Jim Mallinder's Northampton or Brendan Venter's resurgent Sarries?

Which team will complete the top four to book a trip to Welford Road?  Bath, Wasps and London Irish are still in with a semi-final shout.

And can Gloucester keep hold of 7th spot to keep their Heineken Cup dreams alive?

Here are my previews and predictions:


Leicester Tigers v Saracens

Could this be a dress rehearsal for the Guinness Premiership Final on May 29th?

Quite possibly.

Leicester have already secured top spot in the Guinness Premiership and this is their sixth successive season in the playoffs.  Title rivals Saracens need a win from this game to stand any chance of grabbing the other home semi-final.  A win would also crush the Tigers' attempts to go through an entire Premiership campaign unbeaten at home for the fifth time.

The history books show that Leicester have won their last four games against Sarries, whilst Brendan Venter's men have never won at Welford Road in 32 previous visits in all competitions.

But Sarries have already won five games on the road this season, including their last two trips to Sale and Northampton.

My prediction: A real top of the table clash which will go some way to showing who could be crowned champions.  If Sarries give the ball to hooker Schalk Brits then anything is possible, but I think Leicester will just about have the edge.  Leicester to win by 6.


London Irish v Northampton Saints

London Irish's form seems to be slipping away from them at the crucial time.  Losses to Gloucester and Leeds in the last two rounds all but ended their quest for a playoff place, but a win against Northampton would give them a chance - depending on other results.

The Saints will be gunning for a win after they also suffered back to back defeats which out a home semi-final under threat.  A win over Irish would ensure the playoff game will be played at Franklins Gardens - a loss leaves them hoping Leicester do them a favour.

As for the history books, the Saints have won three of their last four meetings with London Irish, but have lost on their last three visits to the Madejski Stadium.

My prediction:  Who wants to win more?  It's got to be Northampton.  Irish looked tired in their last two defeats whilst the Saints were pipped by a single point on each occasion.  Northampton to win by 9.


Bath Rugby v Leeds Carnegie

If Bath beat Leeds they will grab the last playoff place and secure a semi-final trip to Welford Road to take on Leicester Tigers.

But if Neil Back's Leeds can pull a third consecutive win out of the locker then Steve Meehan's men will be left to sweat on other results.

Bath are the form team and have win 10 of their last 11 Guinness Premiership matches.  Not bad for a side that was languishing in 11th place in the table at the halfway point of the season.

Carnegie's Premiership survival was secured with their win over Worcester Warriors so they have nothing to lose at the Rec.

However, I can't see the visitors taking any points from this game against the red hot Bath.

My prediction: With Butch James and Olly Barkley firing in the Bath backline, the home side will shift the point of attack and stretch Leeds to breaking point.  Bath to win by 16.


Harlequins v Sale Sharks

Sale have won their last four meetings in all competitions with Harlequins since the Sharks won this fixture 38-20 last season.

Quins are currently 8th in the table and have lost their last two league games at the hands of semi-finalists Saracens and Leicester.

But Harlequins are unbeaten in their last seven Premiership matches at the Stoop, since Sarries won there in September.

Sale, on the other hand, retained their Guinness Premiership status despite losing their last three league games.  The Sharks' only away victory in the Premiership since January 2009 was at Leeds in November 2009.

My prediction:  Changes are being made at Edgeley Park but it's too late for a Sale renaissance this season.  Harlequins to win by 9.


Newcastle Falcons v London Wasps

Mathematically speaking, Wasps can still clinch the final playoff spot if they beat the Falcons.

However, when people start getting out their calculators to see if a team can make it you know they are unlikely to progress.

When Newcastle faced Wasps at Adams Park in the league on 3 January they beat them 12-6, and if a semi-final isn't enough an incentive for Wasps to win then revenge certainly is.

I've got to admit that a win for the visitors looks likely, as Newcastle's only victory in their last six home games was the 25-23 win over Gloucester in the Premiership on 31 March.

My prediction:  Even if Wasps ace their Maths exam and get through to the playoffs, I can't see them making it to the final.  But Shaun Edwards will be working the old cliche of one game at a time, and that should win them this game.  Wasps to win by 12.


Worcester Warriors v Gloucester Rugby

Worcester's swansong in the Premiership following their relegation at Leeds in the last round is by no means a dead rubber.

The Warriors will be playing for pride in front of their home fans and Gloucester need a win to ensure 7th place - a position that could see them included in next season's Heineken Cup if Toulon win the Amlin Challenge cup in a couple of weeks.

Worcester achieved the Premiership double over Gloucester last season, but drew 13-all when the two teams met at Kingsholm in round 12.

My prediction:  Gloucester will have too much for the Warriors.  Gloucester to win by 12.

Saracens Aim for Home Semi-Final

Saracens take on Leicester Tigers at Welford Road this Saturday, and only a win will give Sarries the chance of a home semi-final against Northampton Saints.

But winning at Welford Road is a tough ask - no team has beaten the Tigers on home soil in the league this season.

However Brendan Venter's Saracens did grab a 28-27 victory over title rivals Northampton at Franklins Gardens two weeks ago.  This result denied the Saints an unbeaten Premiership home campaign and added fire to the forthcoming semi-final clash between the two sides.

The venue of this game is still up for grabs and it rests on the results of Northampton's trip to London Irish and Saracens' game against the Tigers.

Here, Sarries' trio Adam Powell, Andy Saull and Brad Barritt chat about Saturday's game:

Man of the Month: May

April's man of the month was Leeds Carnegie captain, Marco Wentzel.  And guess what?  No sooner had he been bestowed with this wonderful honour he promptly led Leeds Carnegie to another season in the top flight.

Hurray!

Therefore, with this in mind, I have been very careful with my choice for May.

This month sees the Guinness Premiership playoffs and final - and the question on everyone's lips (well, some people's lips) is which team will lift the trophy on May 29th?

Leicester, Northampton, and Saracens have already booked their playoff spots, and Bath will join them if they can see off Leeds next weekend.

If I had to choose a winner from the remaining four it would be tough. 

Leicester Tigers have the pedigree, Sarries are playing some superb rugby, Bath are enjoying a storming second half to the season, and Northampton Saints have been the all round surprise package.

But if I had to choose a team it would be Northampton Saints.

Why?

A few reasons I guess.

1. Everyone loves an underdog.  Northampton are not a fashionable team.  Well, maybe they are now, but before the start of this season?  Not a chance.  Jim Mallinder, Dorian West and Paul Grayson have done an excellent job of building the Saints up from relegation in 2006/07 and transforming them into this season's LV= Cup winners, Heineken Cup quarter-finalists and Guinness Premiership semi-finalists.
2. They play exciting rugby and have done all season.  I'm not saying that Leicester, and more recently, Bath and Sarries haven't been mesmerising crowds with magical ball skills, but this season, at times, Northampton have been sublime.
3. I fancy Dylan Hartley.  There.  I said it.  The Northampton captain might not be everyone's cup of tea but I think he's lovely.  Yeah, so he might look a bit like Chunk from the Goonies but I wouldn't mind seeing his truffle shuffle.  (And before you say it, I don't even know what that innuendo means). 
   
   Dylan says he is often mistaken for Chris Ashton, his Northampton and England team mate, when doing his weekly supermarket shop.  Responding to this, Ashton said: "That's ridiculous because I'm much better looking.  And thinner."
   
   Thinner, yes.  But better looking?  Nah.

Therefore, all this can only mean one thing. 

Yes, May's Man of the Month is England and Saints hooker Dylan Hartley.

A good choice I think.

With that I'm going to wish good luck to Dylan and all the Northampton Saints for the rest of the season!

Guinness Premiership Previews & Predictions: Round 21

Round 21 is packed full of crucial clashes in the Guinness Premiership.  The bottom four teams are in action against each other in the relegation dogfight, whilst playoff hopefuls Wasps and Bath do battle at Adams Park.  Second placed Northampton will fight it out with third placed Saracens and leaders Leicester take on the Quins.

But which teams will come out on top?  Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend:

Sale Sharks v Newcastle Falcons

Friday night sees 11th placed Sale meet 10th placed Newcastle in a fight for Premiership survival.  The teams drew 16-all at Kingston Park in round two, but Sale beware: the Falcons have won two of their last three visits to Edgeley Park.

The Sharks have been in a torrid run of form and have only won two of their last 13 games in all competitions since New Year's Day.  Crucially, these wins were against Worcester and Wasps in two of their last three games at home.

The Falcons' form has been equally poor, and their only win in their last eleven matches in all competitions was the 25-13 home league win to Gloucester on 31 March. 

My prediction: This is a tough one to call.  The winner will secure Premiership rugby for next season.  The loser will anxiously be waiting for the result of the Leeds v Worcester game on Sunday.  With Charlie Hodgson at the helm, I think Sale will edge it by 6.
 
Gloucester Rugby v London Irish
 
Playoff chasing London Irish will be hoping to bounce back from their shock 23-13 home defeat by Leeds last Sunday.  When the Exiles played Gloucester at the Madejski in September they won 40-10, but Irish have only ever won once at Kingsholm in the Premiership: 13-9 on 28 January 2006.

Gloucester's current home form is impressive.  They are unbeaten in their last ten games at Kingsholm in all competitions since Cardiff Blues won there in the LV= Cup on 8 November.

My prediction: London Irish were a shambles last weekend and their form is deserting them at the crucial point in the season.  Gloucester to win by 8.

Leicester Tigers v Harlequins

Leicester are unbeaten in their last 19 games at Fortress Welford Road - the third best home winning run in Premiership history.

The Tigers are hunting top spot in the league to secure a home semi-final, and have suffered just one defeat in their last ten matches in the Guinness Premiership.  That was the 19-3 loss to Northampton on 27 February.

Quins' record against Leicester isn't glittering.  They have lost their last 13 matches against the current league champions, with their most recent win way back in May 2003.

Harlequins were taught a rugby lesson by Saracens at Wembley on Saturday, when they lost 37-18.  Conor O'Shea's men have not won away from home in the league since a visit to Leeds Carnegie on 4 December.

Add to this the stat that their last win at Welford Road was in the old Division One on 26 April 1997 and things aren't looking great for the team from West London.

My prediction:  There can be only one winner.  Leicester by 12.


Northampton Saints v Saracens

This season in the league, the Saints have played ten, won ten at home and are bidding to go through a complete campaign in the top flight unbeaten at Franklins Gardens for the first time.

Saracens have won three of their last four games in the Guinness Premiership and more than doubled their try tally for the entire Premiership season in the process.

The Saints approach this game on the back of the 21-20 loss to Bath on Tuesday after fielding a much weakened side due to EPS restrictions.  Jim Mallinder's men are vying for a home semi-final and they must win one of their final two games to cement second place.
Saracens beat Harlequins in fine style last weekend, and will be looking to improve on their previous two visits to Franklins Gardens in the LV= Cup, where they lost 3-19 and 20-31.

However, Sarries won 19-16 when the two teams clashed at Wembley in round two of the Guinness Premiership.

My prediction:  A tough one to call.  Sarries' are in a fine vein of try-scoring form, whilst Northampton have been one of the teams to beat all season.  Home advantage plays.  Saints to win by 7.
 

London Wasps v Bath Rugby

Only two league points separate 4th place Wasps and 6th place Bath.  It really is that tight at the top.
This game will be played at Twickenham, where Bath have the edge.  The boys in black and blue have won three of the clashes against Wasps at HQ to the London side's one.

Bath beat Northampton Saints 21-20 at the Rec on Tuesday night in a nailbiting game.

Wasps won 17-15 at The Rec in the Premiership in September and have won their last three games in all competitions.  They have also been victorious on their last three visits to Twickenham.

Bath, on the other hand, have not won at HQ since the Pilkington Cup final in May 1996 when they beat Leicester.
My prediction: Wasps are hitting form late, but they are hitting it never the less.  This is a very close game to call, so I won't.  I'm going for a draw.

Leeds Carnegie v Worcester Warriors

For me, as a Leeds fan, this is the game of the season.  This fixture is being touted as the "Million Pound Match", due to the extra funding Leeds will receive from the RFU if they survive in the Premiership.

Leeds grabbed a shock 23-13 away win over London Irish on Sunday to catapult them to 9th in the table.  Worcester are currently rooted to the bottom, and only a win will keep their Premiership dreams alive for next season.  No mean feat, as Mike Ruddock's men have not won on the road in the league in this campaign.

However, the Warriors took the spoils when the two teams met at Sixways in round two but they have only picked up one league point from their last four games.

This is a crucial clash for both sides.  I expect to have no voice left on Monday morning after all the shouting I will be doing at Headingley on Sunday!

My prediction:  Leeds' well deserved win in Reading will have boosted their confidence no end.  I've got to go for a home win.  Leeds Carnegie to win by 9.

But what do you think?

The Crunch

Well, well, well.  What a turn up for the books that was.

Leeds Carnegie grabbed a brilliant 23-13 win over London Irish at the Majedski Stadium on Sunday to set up a tantalizing penultimate round in the Guinness Premiership.

Playoff chasing Irish were outplayed by the better team on the day, and the result catapulted Leeds into 9th spot.  Relative safety, you might say.

Let's look at the table:

Leeds host relegation favourites Worcester on Sunday, and Sale entertain fellow strugglers Newcastle on Friday night.

The Gods of relegation couldn't have planned it better if they had tried.  The bottom four are all playing each other, and something, or someone has to give.

But what are the cold hard facts?

If Leeds beat Worcester then the Warriors are gone.  Doomed.  Consigned to a year of Championship rugby.  As Rafa Benitez would say, that is a fact.

But Sale and Newcastle are by no means safe yet. Whoever loses at Edgeley Park on Friday will be praying for a Leeds win, that I can guarantee.

However, if Mike Ruddock's men take four points from Neil Back's battling Leeds there is everything to play for in the final round. 

This would leave three of the four teams staring down both barrels of relegation on the last day of the season.

Gulp.

What a finale!  I know the argument about relegation/ringfencing and the viability of the Championship is rumbling on, but that is for another day.  End of season squeaky-bum finishes like this are the biggest advocate for promotion and relegation.

However, I wouldn't want to be one of the players who have put pen to paper on a Worcester Warriors contract for next season.  The bookies have them as 1/4 favourites for the drop.  Leeds are now 5/1 after drifting out from 7/4.  I'm not a betting woman, but I know that sucks for Wuss.

I've got to wonder though... Will new Worcester signing Andy Goode become the only comb-over in the Championship?  What of full back Luke Rooney who has set his sights on playing for England?  And will the excellent Neil Best still leave Northampton for Sixways?

Time to check out the get-out-of Championship-relegation-escape-clause in your contracts boys.  After all, the bookies are rarely wrong.

COME ON YOU TYKES!

Guinness Premiership Previews and Predictions: Round 20

London Irish v Leeds Carnegie

London Irish have won their last five games against Leeds since the semi-final of the 2004/05 Powergen Cup. The Exiles' only defeat in their last five Premiership clashes at Madejski Stadium was the 35-22 defeat by Bath on St Valentine's Day. The Reading based side have their eyes firmly on a Premiership play off place and are battling with a resurgent Wasps for fourth spot.

Leeds have slipped to three successive losses in the league but have won three times on the road in the competition this season: at Wasps, Newcastle and Sale. Carnegie will be looking to bounce back after Quins wiped the floor with them last weekend and pick up some points to lift them away from Worcester.

Leeds' last win at the Madejski Stadium was 16-12 in October 2004.

My prediction: Irish will have too much for relegation battlers Leeds. London Irish to win by 14.

Newcastle Falcons v Leicester Tigers

Steve Bates' Newcastle welcome Leicester this weekend, and top spot Tigers are firm favourites for the win. Leicester's only loss in their last nine Guinness Premiership games was 19-3 at Northampton on 27 February.

The last eight matches between the Tigers and Falcons have all been won by the home side on the day. I can't see the result of this game being any different.

Newcastle have notched up just one win in their last ten matches in all competitions. This was the 25-13 home league victory over Gloucester on 31 March.

My prediction: Leicester to maul the Falcons into submission by 20 points.


Bath Rugby v Sale

These teams have met twice this season with Bath winning both times.  The West Country boys won 25-12 in the Premiership and 40-7 in the LV= Cup at The Rec.


Bath's loss at Leicester in round 19 ended their seven game winning run in the Guinness Premiership butt Steve Meehan's men have won their last three league games at home.
Sale have lost two of their last three games and have won just one league game on the road since January 2009.  That came in the shape of the 24-17 win at Leeds on 22 November. The Sharks have won only once at The Rec since 1998, which was way back in January 2006.  History and form tells us there can only be one winner, and that isn't the men from South Manchester.

My prediction: Bath to win by 10.


Northampton Saints v Gloucester Rugby

Northampton have won their last three clashes with Gloucester, including the-24 win in the LV= Cup final at Worcester on 21 March.
The Saints' only defeat in their last eleven games in the Guinness Premiership was 6-13 at Harlequins on 20 February.

Jim Mallinder's high flying team will hope to bounce back from last weekend's Heineken Cup exit on home soil, where they are unbeaten this season. 

No doubt Gloucester will be looking to avenge their cup final defeat by the Saints but their away form is poor.  They have only won one of their last 15 Premiership away games, which was against strugglers Leeds on 4 October.

My prediction: Northampton to do the Premiership double over the cherry and whites and win by 7.


Worcester Warriors v London Wasps

This is a crucial clash for both sides: Worcester need a win to keep their Premiership rugby dreams alive for next season, and Wasps are beadily eyeing a fourth place finish.

Wasps won 23-3 when the two clubs met in round three and will be gunning for their first league double over Worcester.
The Warriors have won just one of their last 15 matches in the Guinness Premiership since September which explains why they are at the foot of the table.

London Wasps' last eight matches in all competitions have all been won by the home side on the day, whilst their most recent win away from home in the Guinness Premiership came against rivals Harlequins on 27th December at Twickenham.

My prediction: Wasps might have left it late to start their charge on the title, but they're looking classy.  They will have too much for Worcester on a hardening pitch.  Wasps to win by 16.


Saracens v Harlequins

Saracens return to Wembley for the fourth time this season, having already grabbed three narrow wins at the home of English football.  In their previous visits, Sarries beat Northampton 19-16 and Worcester 25-20 in the league and embarrassed South Africa to the tune of 24-23.  The men from Watford sank Sale 30-19 at Edgeley Park last Friday, after the action packed 29-28 loss to Gloucester the week before.
Harlequins last eight games in the Guinness Premiership have all been won by the home side on the day.  Last weekend they demolished Leeds 46-11, and their most recent away league win was 30-27 at Leeds Carnegie on 4 December
The Fez heads met Quins at the Stoop in round three and won 22-9.

My prediction:  Both teams have been scoring tries for fun.  I think Saracens' experience of playing at Wembley will give them the edge.  Saracens to win by 8.

Guinness Premiership Previews and Predictions: Round 19

Sale Sharks v Worcester Warriors

Bottom of the pile Worcester travel up to Stockport for a good old relegation dogfight on Friday.

Last weekend Sale were ‘greenwashed’ 38-0 by a classy London Irish, which was only the second time the Sharks failed to register a point in a Premiership game.

But 10th place Sale did win their last home league game when they beat Wasps 19-8 on 19 March.

Worcester have won on their last three visits to Edgeley Park, but their only league victory since September was 13-0 over Newcastle at Sixways on 26 February. The Warriors are the only club without an away victory in the Guinness Premiership this season.

My prediction: It’s a tough one to call. Both teams are struggling as their league positions show. However I think Worcester’s experience of battling relegation will give them the edge. Worcester to win by 4.


Leeds Carnegie v Northampton Saints

Leeds were on a roll after bagging three consecutive league wins before Gloucester spoilt their party with a 19-0 whitewash on Saturday. However Carnegie are still gunning for a third successive Guinness Premiership win at Headingley Carnegie, something they have not achieved since the 2005/06 season.

Northampton are having the season of all seasons. They are unbeaten at home and their only league loss since the end of October was 13-6 at Harlequins on 20 February.

The last five league meetings between the two sides have all been won by the home team on the day, but the Saints have not won on Leeds turf since 2 May 2004. Well, when I say turf I mean sand, as the Headingley pitch looks more like a beach at the moment. We will have to wait and see if this will help stop the Saints’ glittering array of backs from tripping the light fandango over the try line.

My prediction: If Leeds can play in a similar way to the way that Wasps took on the Saints last Sunday – by winning up front and stifling their running game - then they have a chance. I still think Northampton will have too much, but Carnegie could sneak a losing bonus point. Northampton to win by 6.

Harlequins v Newcastle Falcons

For Newcastle, this is match number two in a week’s hat trick of games.

A Jimmy Gopperth inspired Falcons pulled off a shock 25-13 home win over Gloucester on Wednesday to consolidate ninth place in the table.

Harlequins and Newcastle have already met twice this season at Kingston Park. The first was a 17-all draw in the Premiership on 25 September, then Quins won 19-8 in the LV= Cup on 15 November.

The London side is unbeaten in their last five league games at the Twickenham Stoop, and Newcastle have lost on their last seven trips there.

My prediction: After their win on Wednesday I think Newcastle might grab a losing bonus point. Harlequins to win by 5.


Leicester Tigers v Bath Rugby

The Tigers are hunting down a top two finish to grab a home semi-final thanks to their unbeaten run of 29 matches at Welford Road. This record stretches back to when Wasps turned them over way back on 26 September 2008.

Leicester haven’t lost in their last five games against Bath, whilst the men in Blue’s only previous Premiership victory at Welford Road was 13-12 on 29 November 2003.

However, Bath are the best team in the Guinness Premiership on current form and have won 30 of the last 35 possible points. Bath are also the best away side in the competition with 25 league points gained on their travels this campaign.

But the Tigers have lost only one of their last eight games in the league which was the 19-3 defeat at Northampton on 27 February.

My prediction: This is a tough one to call. Bath have all the form but Welford Road is like a fortress. I’m going to be controversial and tip the nod to the visitors. Bath to win by 3.


Gloucester Rugby v Saracens

Saracens won 19-16 when the two teams met at Vicarage Road in round four and are seeking a first Premiership double over Gloucester since season 2004/05.

Gloucester made the long trip to Newcastle on Wednesday and came away with nothing from the 25-13 defeat. After this, the cherry and whites have little time to pick themselves up before facing third place Sarries on Saturday.

Saracens’ four game losing streak in all competitions ended on Sunday with their 58-15 demolition of Newcastle at home. But Sarries have not won a league game on the road since their trip to Bath at the end of October.

Gloucester, however, are unbeaten in their last six Guinness Premiership matches at Kingsholm since Wasps won there on 24 October.

My prediction: Sarries are still stuttering and Gloucester’s form is patchy. Gloucester to win by 8.

London Wasps v London Irish

This London derby is a massive game with both clubs pushing for a place in the playoffs.

Irish and Wasps have already met twice this season at Madejski Stadium, with the Exiles winning the first 28-16 in the league on 27 September, and Wasps winning the other, 24-20 in the LV= Cup on 8 November.

Last weekend, Wasps ran Northampton close and looked much more switched on than during their recent defeats at Sale and Leeds. Wasps’ last win in the league was the 24-19 home win over Gloucester on 7 March.

London Irish have lost just one of their last four matches: 19-35 at Leicester on 6 March, but they have not won away from home in the league since their trip to Bath on 28 November.

My prediction: Wasps are showing signs of progress but I think Irish will be too good on this occasion.
London Irish to win by 9.
 
So what do you think?

Who Will Be the Champions?

The Guinness Premiership is rounding the find bend and all the teams at the top are sharpening their spikes for the final run in.

Last week I upset Sale fans when I picked the Sharks as the team most likely to slip into the Championship next season.

Now, I'm going to crane my neck and look at the top of the table to see just who could be Guinness Premiership Champions.

Let's delve into each team's remaining fixtures, do a bit of crappy maths and conjure up a potential winner.

Here are the teams with their current league positions, points and run in:

Leicester Tigers

Points: 58
Position: 1st
Fixtures: Bath (H), Falcons (A), Harlequins (H), Saracens (H)

Playoff tip:  It's not a bad run in for the Tigers with three of their last four games at fortress Welford Road.  Coach Richard Cockerill will expect to pick up five points against both the Falcons and Quins, and I expect Leicester to battle out wins againsts Bath and Sarries.  A top two spot and a home semi-final awaits.

Northampton Saints

Points: 56
Position: 2nd
Fixtures: Leeds (A), Gloucester (H), Bath (A), Saracens (H), London Irish (A)

Playoff tip:  The Saints have a tougher run in than Leicester with tricky away games against Bath and the Exiles.  Leeds could be a potential banana skin as they battle relegation, but Northampton will expect to take the full five points this weekend.  An LV= Cup final rematch against Gloucester could be a humdinger of a grudge match, and whilst Sarries's form has been pretty rubbish, last weekend they put Newcastle to the sword in a seven try demolishion job.  Despite this, Northampton are the form team and in pole position for a home semi final.

Saracens

Points: 51
Position: 3rd
Fixtures: Gloucester (A), Sale(A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A), Leicester (A)

Playoff tip:  A very tough run-in for Brendan Venter and chums.  Away trips to Franklins Gardens and Welford Road in the final two rounds are a massive ask for a team with stuttering form.  Gloucester away won't be easy as the cherry and whites are also strong right now.  Sale should be a four or five pointer, but the game against Quins could be tricky.  I think Sarries have peaked too soon and will finish in 5th.

London Irish

Points: 48
Position: 4th
Fixtures: Wasps (A), Worcester (A), Leeds (H), Gloucester (A), Northampton (H)

Playoff tip:  With the exception of Gloucester and Northampton this isn't a bad run in for the Exiles.  But what about Wasps?  Well, to be honest I'm not quite sure how Danny Celebriani and pals have climbed so high up the table, as losses to Leeds, Sale and Saints in recent weeks is hardly championship form.  Therefore I expect Irish to bag a win at Adams Park, take the points from Leeds and Worcester and finish in third or fouth.  I think they'll be happy with a semi-final, even though it won't be at home.

Wasps

Points: 44
Position: 5th
Fixtures: London Irish(H), Worcester (A), Bath (A), Newcastle Falcons (H)

Playoff tip:  Wasps will finish out of the top four.  They have one game less to play than most of their rivals and can't realistically target the Newcastle or Worcester games as sure things.  The Falcons beat Wasps at home, and Wasps on the road are about as tough to beat as a team of under 7s.  They will finish in 6th.

Bath

Points: 42
Position: 6th
Fixtures: Leicester (A), Sale (H), Northampton (H), Wasps (A), Leeds(A)

Playoff tip:  Bath look to be timing their run in rather nicely.  A dreadful first half of the season saw them languishing down at the bottom of the table, but an impressive run of form hsa propelled them to in touching distance of the top four.  Steve Meehan's men are the best team in the league on current form having grabbed 30 of the last 35 available league points.  They're also the best team away from home with 25 points scored on the road.  Bath are coming up on the rails fast and I think they'll pip Wasps to a playoff place.

So, with form and the run-in analysed, I think the semi-finalists will be:

1. Leicester Tigers
2. Northampton Saints
3. London Irish
4. Bath Rugby 

But which team will be crowned champions?

Gut feeling?  I think it could well be Northampton's year.

Put your hands up for the Saints

Why?

I don't know.  As I say it's just a feeling.  Everything coming out of the club at the moment is positive.  They have several international players with plenty more on the fringes.  The Saints have already won their first piece of silverware this year with the LV= Cup and they are the only English team still in the Heineken Cup.  The coaching set up of Jim Mallinder, Dorian West and Paul Grayson has worked wonders.  Everything just seems to be clicking at the right time.

It's not that I'm discounting Leicester, Bath and London Irish - it's just that these teams don't seem to have that extra spark right now.  Leicester are great at home but their away form hasn't been as impressive and their high profile departures are unsettling.  OK, so Soane Tonga'uiha is leaving Northampton for Sarries next season and Neil Best is heading to Worcester - but I hear Tonga'uiha is now trying to stay at Franklins Gardens do the the postive outlook at the club.

I could wheel out some stats about the final league position of teams who have gone on to win the title in previous years, but I won't as I don't think that really matters.

If the top four shapes up as above, I think Northampton will beat London Irish in the semi-final and go on to do a job on Leicester in the final.

Again, don't ask me why, but I just have a feeling....

Guinness Premiership Previews and Predictions: Round 18

Northampton Saints v London Wasps

Last Sunday Northampton won the LV= Cup at Sixways in an action packed game of entertaining end-to-end rugby.

So the Saints have one prize safely stashed in their trophy cabinet and are still firmly in the Heineken Cup. They are also second in the league and have a great chance of being crowned Premiership champions. This means confidence is really riding high at Franklins Gardens, which is no surprise as the Saints have won seven of their last eight games in all competitions. In fact, Northampton have won their last 20 games at home since Newcastle triumphed there, 19-13, on 28 February 2009.

London Wasps, on the other hand, have lost two of their last three games in the league. These came on the road to relegation battlers Leeds and Sale, but despite this, Wasps are still two league places behind the Saints and are clinging on to fourth.

Even though Northampton have won just two of their last twelve games with Wasps, form says that the Saints will probably win this round.

My prediction: Northampton to win by 9.


London Irish v Sale Sharks

London Irish have won five of their last six encounters with the Sharks, and Sale last tasted victory at the Madejski Stadium way back in October 2006.

However, the Exiles have won just one of their last nine games in all competitions, which was the 29-14 home win over Harlequins in the Premiership on 28 February.

Sale Sharks' eight game losing run in all competitions came to an end with their 19-8 victory over London Wasps at Edgeley Park on Friday. This result saw Sale climb off the foot of the table and up into 10th.

But the Sharks are a team on the edge and look to be suffering from low morale. Can they turn their season round at this late stage with the return of international stars Mark Cueto, Mathew Tait and Dwayne Peel?

It’s going to be tough. Sale's only away win in the league since January 2009 was their 24-17 result at Leeds on 22 November. Contrast that with fifth place London Irish who are gunning for a top four finish.

My prediction: The Exiles will be too strong for their visitors, and will win by 10 points.


Worcester Warriors v Leicester Tigers

Bottom of the table Worcester might be struggling, but they do have a small claim to fame over Leicester: the lowly Warriors are the only side to take a Premiership league point from Welford Road so far this season.

But can they grab all four points in the home reversal?

Probably not. Leicester have won eight of their last nine matches against Worcester, including the 19-14 win at home in round five.

Worcester’s only victory in their last dozen league matches was 13-0 win at home to Newcastle on 26 February. However, the Warriors have won their last three games at Sixways in all competitions and the Tigers’ form away from home has seen them lose three of their last four away games.

All that aside, this is a top v bottom clash which I can only see going one way.

My prediction: Leicester to win by 12.


Gloucester Rugby v Leeds Carnegie

Last Sunday saw another dose of cup final heartbreak for Gloucester when Northampton snatched the LV= Cup in a thrilling game.

But will this loss affect them on Saturday? Neil Back’s Leeds will certainly hope so.

Gloucester have won their last five matches against Leeds, and the home side are unbeaten in their last eight games at Kingsholm.

However, Carnegie have won their last three Guinness Premiership games in their best run in the competition since 2004/05. Leeds will hope to add to this tally at the start of the run in, but the Yorkshiremen have won just once in seven previous visits to Kingsholm. That came in the 33-15 in the Guinness Premiership on 9 April 2005.

My prediction: The two week break could well have derailed Leeds’ momentum, and Gloucester will have a point to prove. Gloucester to win by 8.


Saracens v Newcastle Falcons

Saracens have lost their last four matches in all competitions and have picked up just eight points from their last six league games. This is hardly impressive form for the team who led the way at the start of the season.

Newcastle Falcons are also in a bad run of form and have lost their last six games. Their last win came in the Amlin Cup game at Kingston Park on 22 January against Petrarca Padova. The Falcons haven’t won on the road in the Guinness Premiership since their 12-6 victory at London Wasps on 3 January, so this weekend’s trip will be tough.

History tells us Sarries have won three of their last four games against Newcastle, and the Falcons have only won on two of their previous visits to Vicarage Road

My prediction: Both teams are under pressure to win, with points scored from the boot likely to decide this encounter. Saracens to win by 6.


Bath Rugby v Harlequins

Bath are the best side in the Guinness Premiership on current form having dropped only four of their last 30 possible league points. They approach this game having won their last five games in all competitions and four of their last five matches at The Rec.

Harlequins have won two of their last three games in the Guinness Premiership, but are winless away from home since their trip to Leeds on 4 December.

But the Quins have won their last four encounters with Bath including a 13-11 victory at Twickenham Stoop in round five.

So who will win?

My prediction: On current form, especially at home, it’s got to be Bath by 9.

The Guinness Premiership Relegation Run In

Now that the Six Nations has whimpered to an uninspiring conclusion it's all eyes back to the Guinness Premiership, Magners League and Heineken Cup.

As we approach the so called 'business end' of the season, I'll be looking at the teams jostling for position at the top of the Premiership and those fighting for survival at the bottom.

First up, I will cast my eyes over the teams hoping to avoid the dreaded trapdoor.

But which team will come up short?

Will Worcester be saved from the drop by scrappy bonus points?

Can Leeds Carnegie continue their recent winning streak and climb away from the Championship?

Do Newcastle have what it takes to stay in the top flight?

Or will Sale survive despite a torrid run of form?

The Guinness Premiership table

With only six rounds left the battle at the bottom is really hotting up.  Unlike previous seasons, the team that will fall by the Premiership wayside is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Home games are all important in the fight for Guinness Premiership survival, but so are the head to head matches between the teams at the bottom.

Sale play fellow relegation battlers Worcester and Newcastle in their run in, but crucially for Kingsley Jones' men both these games are at home.  The Sharks beat Wasps in their game in hand (also known as Pizzagate take two) to claw their way up to 10th.  However Sale's form has been dire recently, and prior to the win over Wasps they were suffering their worst run in the league since the 2000/01 season.

Leeds approach the final half dozen fixtures on the back of a three game winning streak in the league.  However the two week break won't have helped their momentum. Carnegie only two home games left to play - the lowest of all the teams facing the drop.  These are against high flying Northampton, and what promises to be an epic relegation dogfight against bottom of the table Worcester in the penultimate round.  Still, three of Leeds' five Guinness Premiership wins have been on the road, so this won't trouble Neil Back's men unduly.

Worcester are currently bottom of the pile and have tough games against top four teams Leicester and Wasps.  Wuss also face London Irish, who are pushing for a top four finish.  However all these games are at home, and in their last six matches Worcester only have to two games away from Sixways.  These matches are against fellow relegation fodder Leeds and Sale, which puts extra pressure on Mike Ruddock's team to at least win a couple of bonus points at home.

Newcastle have a nasty run-in, but they will take heart that they have already beaten Wasps and drawn with Sale this year.  Gloucester, Harlequins, Leicester and Saracens aren't the teams you want to be playing at this point in the season, especially as the spectre of relegation is looming.

But what about Harlequins and Gloucester?  Surely these two supremos won't be dragged down into the relegation dogfight? 

Probably not, although Quins did fall into the Championship in the 2004/05 season.  However the reality is that Quins and Glaws are only four points ahead of Newcastle and five points ahead of Sale and Leeds down in 10th and 11th.  Even bottom of the pile Worcester are only two wins away from overhauling these Premiership giants.  So it is possible that if, albeit rather unlikely, that if Gloucester and Harlequins make a hash of their home games, they could find the last few weeks of the season rather uncomfortable.

So what are each teams' chances of survival?  Here is what I think:

Gloucester

Points: 32
Position: 7th
Fixtures: Newcastle (A), Leeds (H), Saracens (H), Northampton (A), London Irish (H), Worcester (A)

Survival chance: As good as Bear Grylls living on a diet of twigs and dangleberries.  4.5/5.

Harlequins

Points: 32
Position: 8th
Fixtures: Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Leeds (H), Saracens (A: Wembley), Leicester (A), Sale (H)

Survival chance: Wins against two of the three strugglers Newcastle, Leeds or Sale will see them safe.  Quins might have experienced a few problems with blood, but nosebleeders they are not. 4/5

Newcastle

Points: 28
Position: 9th
Fixtures: Gloucester (H), Saracens (A), Harlequins (A), Leicester (H), Sale (A), Wasps (H)

Survival chance: Yuk. If the Falcons are to survive it's going to be tough. 1.5/5.

Sale

Points: 27
Position: 10th
Fixtures: London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Harlequins (A)

Survival chance: Everything rests on the outcome of the games against Worcester and Newcastle.  Win these and Sale are in with a shout.  Lose them both and Sale are sunk. 1/5.

Leeds

Points: 27
Position: 11th
Fixtures: Gloucester (A), Northampton (H), Harlequins (A), London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Bath (A)

Survival chance: It's by no means an easy run in, but recent wins over Saracens and Wasps show Leeds could have what it takes to stay up. 3/5.

Worcester

Points: 25
Position: 12th
Fixtures: Leicester (H), Sale (A), London Irish (H), Wasps (H), Leeds (A), Gloucester (H)

Survival chance: It's another tough batch of games and the match at Leeds looks like it will be crucial.  However, Worcester have a habit of surviving against the odds. 3.5/5.


So by my calculations the toothless Sharks will be swimming in the Championship next season.

Well, unless they are saved by the fiasco of the Championship playoff system that is.

But what do you think? 

Will Sale be the ones plummeting through the Guinness Premiership trapdoor on Saturday 8th May?

This Weekend's Guinness Premiership Predictions

Newcastle Falcons v Bath

Bath were tepid at best at the start of the season but now they are red hot. In fact they are the best team in the Guinness Premiership on current form, having picked up 22 of a possible 25 league points from their last five games.

The Falcons beat Bath 27-16 when the two met in the Guinness Premiership at The Rec in round 6. Newcastle Falcons' only win in their last seven games in the Guinness Premiership was the shock 12-6 win at London Wasps on 3 January.

With the Falcons last home league win being the 14-3 victory over Worcester on 1 November and with Bath’s excellent form, I predict a third consecutive away win for the boys in blue.

My prediction: Bath to win by 10.


Wasps v Gloucester

London Wasps have won three of their last four games at Adams Park in the Guinness Premiership. However Wasps lost 26-10 to Leeds Carnegie last weekend which ended their three game winning run.

Gloucester has lost only one of their last eight encounters in all competitions which came in the 33-11 defeat at Leicester on 20 February.

Gloucester's only away win in their last 13 matches in the Premiership was 26-10 at Leeds on 4 October. Wasps have already beaten Gloucester this season in the 21-14 LV= Cup victory back in November.

My prediction: Gloucester’s confidence is riding high but it will be tough to beat Wasps on the road. Wasps to win by 3.


Leeds Carnegie v Saracens

Leeds are looking to clinch three league wins in a row for the first time since the 2004-05 season.

Whilst Saracens have won their last eight games against Leeds, the Fez heads only win in their last five games in the Guinness Premiership was 25-20 against Worcester at Wembley Stadium on 13 February. Compare this to Carnegie, who are fifth best in the Premiership on current form, having gained 15 points from their last six matches.

Add to this the fact that Sarries have not won away from home in the Premiership since they visited Bath on 31 October and this looks like a tasty encounter.

When these sides met earlier in the season, referee David Rose disallowed a perfectly good Leeds try (for which he later apologized). Had the try stood, Leeds would have won the game.

My prediction: Revenge will be sweet, and Leeds’ forwards to drive Carnegie to a win by 7.


Sale Sharks v Northampton Saints

What on earth has happened to Sale Sharks? The men from south Manchester are on their worst losing streak since 1999/2000 having lost their last seven games in all competitions.

Now joint bottom with Leeds, the Sharks have gained just one league point from their last three outings in the Guinness Premiership. They grabbed the solitary losing bonus point from their 16-22 defeat at Wasps on 14 February.

Northampton Saints' only loss in their last eight Guinness Premiership games was the 13-6 at Harlequins on 20 February.

The teams have already met twice this season with Northampton winning both times: 21-16 at Franklin's Gardens in the Guinness Premiership and 20-14 in the LV= Cup at Edgeley Park.

My prediction: Saints to make it three wins from three, and clinching the win by 12 points.


Leicester Tigers v London Irish

Northampton ruined Leicester’s points scoring run last weekend, as for the first time in 29 games the Tigers failed to grab any points from the match.

Leicester’s home form is still formidable though, and the only side to take anything away from Welford Road this season was Worcester in their 19-14 defeat.

London Irish did beat the reigning champions 18-12 at the Madejski Stadium in round 6. However, the Exiles have been hit hard by injury and their form has been poor recently.

Irish beat Harlequins 29-14 at home last weekend to end a run of seven defeats, but the strength and depth of the Tigers will be too much for them this weekend.

My prediction: Leicester to win by 6.


Harlequins v Worcester Warriors

Harlequins have won the last seven encounters between the two teams in the Guinness Premiership since Worcester won 15-9 at the Stoop on 19 February 2005.

But Quins’ only victory in their last five matches in the Guinness Premiership was 13-6 over Northampton at the Twickenham Stoop on 20 February.

Worcester Warriors' ten match winless streak ended with their 13-0 victory over Newcastle at Sixways on Friday. With Leeds keeping the relegation battle alive and Sale being dragged into the mix, the Warriors really need to take something from this game.

That might be easier said than done, as Worcester last won on the road in the Guinness Premiership on 21 April 2009.

My prediction: Harlequins to win by 6.

 
So what do you think?

Guinness Premiership Previews and Predictions

Revolving doors are being fitted in changing rooms up and down the country as players are starting to line up new clubs for next season.


There is still everything to play for in this campaign, and last weekend’s win by basement boys Leeds Carnegie tightened things up at the bottom of the table.

Here are my Guinness Premiership previews and predictions for this weekend.

Leeds Carnegie v London Wasps

This game is the Yorkshire club’s 500th competitive match and Carnegie are looking to celebrate the landmark with a first home win of the season.

In the reverse fixture on 1 November, Leeds achieved their first victory over Wasps in the Guinness Premiership when their forwards dominated the set piece. Back to back wins won’t be easy as Wasps have won all six previous of their visits to Headingley Carnegie.

Leeds earned their third victory of the Guinness Premiership season at Sale on Friday night, but their last home win was the 16-15 victory over Newcastle way back in March 2008.

London Wasps have won their last three matches in all competitions, and have won four of their last seven away games in the Guinness Premiership.

My prediction: Leeds’ forwards to dominate again. Leeds to win by 5.


Gloucester v Sale Sharks

Sale have beaten Gloucester in three of their last four encounters including a 28-23 win at Edgeley Park in round 7.

However the Sharks have slipped to six straight defeats, and a loss at Kingsholm would be their worst run since the 1999/2000 season.

Gloucester’s five game winning run in all competitions unsurprisingly ended at Welford Road on Saturday. The West County men are unbeaten in their last seven matches at home since Cardiff Blues won there in the LV= Cup on 8 November.

The Sharks' only away victory in the Guinness Premiership since January 2009 was 24-17 at Leeds on 22 November.

With Gloucester’s recent form and Sale’s lack of it, I’m going for a home win.

My prediction: Gloucester to win by 9.


Saracens v Bath

Sarries’ form has slumped over recent weeks.

After an excellent eight straight victories at the start of their Guinness Premiership campaign they have now only won one of their last four games. However the Fez heads have only lost one home game in the Premiership this season which was their 22-15 defeat by Leicester on 2 January.

Bath has risen from the foot of the table after four successive wins in the league. Can they continue their revival this weekend? I’m not sure.

Sarries’ home form has been excellent and they have already beaten Bath twice this season: 30-22 in the LV= Cup on 8 November, and also won 12-11 at The Rec in the Guinness Premiership on 31 October.

My prediction: Saracens to win by 10.


London Irish v Harlequins

Quins have already beaten Irish 16-13 at the Madejski Stadium this season in the LV= Cup on 31 January. The last time they met in the league resulted in an uninspiring 9-9 draw on 31 October.

London Irish started the season well, but a 12-12 draw at Newcastle on Saturday means they are winless since the start of the year. The Exiles most recent win was 23-19 at home to Saracens on 27 December.

Harlequins have endured an up and down season but ended a three game losing run in the with their 13-6 victory over Northampton Saints at the Stoop on Saturday.

The Quins have a superb record at Madejski Stadium, having lost in just two of 11 previous visits against all opponents in all competitions.

Looking at their form and the players missing through international duty, I think the visitors might just sneak this one.

My prediction: Harlequins to win by 8.


Worcester Warriors v Newcastle Falcons

Worcester Warriors are without a win in their last ten matches in the Guinness Premiership. Rumour has it that the National Lottery are looking to sign them up as draw masters as they have already notched up four draws in the league this season.

Newcastle Falcons will rival them for this glittering position as they also recorded their 4th draw of the Premiership season at home to London Irish on Saturday. The Falcons’ last victory in the competition was 12-6 at London Wasps on 3 January.

Worcester have already beaten Newcastle 32-6 at Sixways this season in the LV= Cup on 7 November. The Falcons took the Guinness Premiership encounter the previous week with a 14-3 win at Kingston Park.

My prediction: I’d love to say a draw, but I think the Falcons will take this one by 8.


Northampton Saints v Leicester Tigers

Northampton have already beaten the Tigers 23-11 at Franklin's Gardens in the LV= Cup on 6 February. In the league, Leicester won 29-15 at Welford Road on 31 October.

Northampton Saints' six game winning run in the Guinness Premiership came to an end at the Twickenham Stoop on Saturday. The Saints have won their last 17 games in all competitions at Franklin's Gardens since Newcastle won there in the Premiership on 28 February 2009.

Table topping Leicester Tigers are the best team in the Guinness Premiership on current form having secured 22 of their last 25 possible points. Leicester have recorded at least one league point from each of their last 29 matches.

International call ups will affect both teams this weekend, but I still think the Tigers will have the edge.

My prediction: Leicester to win by 3.

So what do you think?

Leeds take the Wind Out of Sale

The battle for Guinness Premiership survival is really hotting up.

Bottom of the table Leeds travelled to Sale on Friday night and beat their Guinness Premiership neighbours 19-10.

This is the first time Carnegie have beaten Sale in 18 attempts so well done to the boys!

A quick glance at the Guinness Premiership table shows that things are getting a bit tasty down at the bottom:

Leeds' win and Worcester and Sale's losses have really opened up the relegation battle.

Don't forget that at the start of the year Bath were being touted as a team for the drop but they are now up in 6th.

Carnegie are yet to win at home in the Premiership this season, but their narrow 14-9 home defeat by Leicester and now the victory over Sale really makes me think they are turning the corner.

I expect them to climb out of bottom spot over the next few weeks and set up a fascinating season finale.

So which team is your favourite for the drop?

COME ON LEEDS!  YOU CAN STAY UP!

Guinness Premiership Previews and Predictions: Round 14

This weekend sees a break in Six Nations’ action so it’s all eyes back to the Guinness Premiership. Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend’s fixtures:

Sale Sharks v Leeds Carnegie

Friday’s match sees Sale Sharks entertain lowly Leeds Carnegie. Sale are on a run of five successive losses in all competitions, although the Sharks haven’t lost at home in the Guinness Premiership since London Irish visited on 2 October.

Leeds have failed to beat Sale despite 17 attempts. Last weekend a strong display by the Leeds forwards dominated the set piece against league leaders Leicester, but Leeds were unable to edge out their visitors a close game. Leeds have won just one of their last six matches in the Guinness Premiership, but have scored at least one league point in their last four games. With the spectre of relegation looming, Leeds need to target teams like Sale in their quest for survival.

The two teams have already met twice this season with Sale victorious on both occasions in November: 27-3 in the LV= Cup at Edgeley Park and 24-17 at Headingley Carnegie in the Guinness Premiership.

My prediction: Another strong display by Leeds’ forwards, with Carnegie winning by 4.


London Wasps v Saracens

On paper this game will be a cracking London battle. Saracens are second in the Guinness Premiership whilst Wasps are coming to the boil nicely. Wasps have won back to back games at Newcastle in the LV= Cup and at home to Sale in the league, whilst Sarries were victorious in their last two fixtures with Wasps.

Saracens’ away form is good this season and they have won three of their last four games on the road. However the Fez heads’ most recent victory on Wasps soil was 19-15 at Loftus Road in the Premiership on 19 October 1997. Will the early league leaders turn this round and record another away win? I think so.

My prediction: Saracens to win by 5.


Newcastle Falcons v London Irish

Newcastle have slipped to three straight defeats since their 20-3 home victory over Petrarca Padova in the Amlin Challenge Cup on 22 January. The Falcons haven’t won at Kingston Park in the Guinness Premiership since London Irish were the visitors on 22 November.

London Irish aren’t exactly on a winning streak either though. The Exiles are winless in last six matches in all competitions since a 23-19 home victory over Saracens in the Premiership on 27 December.

The Falcons beat Irish 15-11 at Madejski Stadium in the teams’ previous encounter at the end of November, and the north eastern team haven’t completed the double over the Exiles since 2001/02.

London Irish have slipped to fourth in the Premiership after a strong start and will look to reassert their title claims over eighth place Newcastle. Can they do this without their England stars?

My prediction: Newcastle to win by 6.


Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby

Leicester have won their last four games in the Guinness Premiership but struggled last weekend against bottom club Leeds. The absence of Dan Cole and Martin Castrogiavanni in a depleted front row saw the Tigers’ scrum pushed backwards as easily as a sledge on a steep slope. However Leicester’s home form is remarkable as they are unbeaten in their last 27 home games since Wasps won at Welford Road in the Premiership on 26 September 2008.

Gloucester won 12-9 when the two teams met in the Guinness Premiership in round 8, and are going for a first Premiership double over the Tigers since 2003/04.

The West Country boys have won their last five matches in all competitions, whilst their 46-6 thumping of Harlequins on Saturday was their biggest Premiership win in the league phase since May 2002.

My prediction: Weakened team or not, I can’t bet against the Tigers at home. Leicester to win by 6.


Harlequins v Northampton Saints

Northampton is the only team flying the English flag in the Heineken Cup, and their form this season has been remarkable. When these teams last met in the Premiership in November, Saints won 26-17 at Franklin's Gardens.

Harlequins' are ninth in the Premiership and their only win in their last nine matches in all competitions was 16-13 at London Irish in the LV= Cup on 31 January. Quins' have won just once at the Twickenham Stoop since October: 35-29 over Gloucester in the Guinness Premiership on 28 November. Hardly electrifying form.

Northampton have won an impressive 13 victories from their last 14 games including their last six matches in the Guinness Premiership. A win against Quins will tie Northampton's best ever run in the competition, set in season 1999/2000.

My prediction: The Saints to keep marching on (and on) and win by 9 points.


Bath Rugby v Worcester Warriors

Early relegation candidates Bath have climbed to seventh in the Premiership, although it remains tight at the bottom of the table. Only two points separate Bath with Sale who are down in tenth, whilst Worcester lie in 11th place.

The Warriors have lost on all five previous visits to The Rec so their previous form isn’t looking promising. Worcester's only victory in their last four fixtures was 19-9 at home to London Irish in the LV= Cup on 6 February. The Warriors remain the only side without an away win in the Guinness Premiership this campaign.

Bath have won their last three games in the Guinness Premiership and have won three of their last four matches at The Rec in all competitions. Hopefully this means they have finally put the dramas of last summer behind them.

My prediction: Bath to win by 7.

So what do you think?

Guinness Premiership Previews and Predictions: Week 13

It's Valentines' weekend, and here are my rose-tinted previews and predictions for this weekend's Guinness Premiership fixtures:

Northampton v Newcastle
Chris Ashton's release by England will please Saints fans making the trip to Franklins Gardens on Saturday but Northampton will miss prop Euan Murray.  Murray starts for Scotland after missing last weekend's Six Nations clash due to religious reasons.  Last week Newcastle narrowly lost 9-3 in the LV= Cup away to Wasps, whilst Northampton beat Leicester 23-11.  The Saints have been nothing short of a revelation this season, and I predict they will march on and tame the Falcons this weekend.  Praise be.

My prediction:  Northampton by 9.

Leeds Carnegie v Leicester
At the start of 2010, Stuart Barnes declared that if Leeds were bottom of the Premiership after this game  then they would definitely be relegated.  The pivotal game is now here and Leeds are still bottom of the table whilst Leicester are top of the pile.  Even the most romantic Leeds supporters now have to admit the magnitude of the challenge Leeds face to avoid the drop.  A bonus point win against the Tigers would see Leeds join Worcester on 19 points (provided that Worcester lose at Saracens) but Leeds would still be bottom on points difference.  The Yorkshire side has crashed out of the LV= Cup and Amlin Cup in recent weeks and they are yet to win a Guinness Premiership game at home.  I can only see this result going one way, despite Leicester losing key players to international duty.

My prediction:  Leicester by 15.

London Irish v Bath
If this game was being played at the Rec then I would tip Bath to sneak a win based on their recent home form.  Happily for England fans, Matt Banahan has been released back to his club, which means the crowd at the Majedski Stadium will be treated to the sight of him dawdling down the wing at 0.2 miles an hour on Sunday afternoon.  Irish have faltered of late, losing 19-9 away at Worcester in last weekend's LV= Cup, whilst Bath pulled off a 40-7 victory at home to Sale in the same competition.  Of course the Premiership is the Exiles main target after dropping out of the Heineken Cup.  I think they'll turn around their fortunes and win this one.

My prediction:  London Irish to win by 12.

Wasps v Sale
Wasps narrowly beat Newcastle 9-3 in last weekend's LV= Cup, and Sale were hammered by Bath.  When these sides last met controversy ensued, with the game eventually being called off because of a waterlogged pitch.  Wasps lost 34-8 away at Leicester in their last Guinness Premiership outing when their scrum was taught a lesson.  Therefore the men in yellow and black will be pleased that Martin Castrogiavanni and Dan Cole are on international duty, but then again so is Tim Payne.

My prediction:  Wasps to win by 8.

Gloucester v Harlequins
When these sides met in the first half of the season Harlequins ran out 35-29 winners in an action packed game.  Quins' half backs Danny Care and Nick Evans ran riot for the hosts, but Care, Monye and Easter are all on England duty this weekend.  In their last premiership game, Gloucester drew 13-13 with Worcester, whilst Harlequins were defeated by Sale for the third time this season (twice in the Heineken Cup and once in the Premiership).

My prediction:  Gloucester to win by 5.

Saracens v Worcester
Saracens have been pushed off top spot by the snarling Tigers, helped when Sarries were defeated 22-15 at home by Richard Cockerill's men on 2 January.  Worcester are second bottom in the Guinness Premiership, five points ahead of relegation favourites Leeds Carnegie.  Worcester seem to be drawing games for fun this season, but I doubt they will do enough to hold the Saracens who are looking to reclaim top spot.  Saracens and Worcester both lost their last games in the Guinness Premiership.

My prediction:  Saracens to win by 9.

Guinness Premiership Previews and Predictions: Round 13

Round 13 of the Guinness Premiership is definitely unlucky for some. Due to the snowy weather and icy conditions four of this weekend's six matches have now been postponed. The Northampton Saints will miss out on heating up the Rec and steaming their way past a rather tepid Bath, Sale's clash against Saracens and Newcastle's game against Gloucester both fell by the frosty wayside yesterday, and icy conditions around The Stoop meant that the Harlequins vs Leeds Carnegie match met a similar fate this afternoon.

Brrr..

This of course means that my job with the Result Predict-O-Meter is slightly easier this week, as I can only get two results wrong instead of six. That is, unless the remaining couple of fixtures are postponed too, as there is still time.  With my fingers just about defrosted, here are my previews and predictions for this week:

Leicester Tigers vs London Wasps
Of the two games set to go ahead this weekend this game is the pick of the pair. Leicester's home record is undeniably brilliant, with 23 wins and 1 draw since they were last defeated at Welford Road, which just so happens was at the hands of this weekend's visitors back in September 2008. Wasps suffered a shock home defeat last weekend against Newcastle, when the power of Falcons' forwards Carl Haymans and Jon Golding prevented Wasps from establishing any kind of platform from the scrum. The task facing the Wasps forwards isn't going to be much easier this week with Leicester's in form prop Dan Cole likely to lead the Tiger's tight five into battle with Castrogiavanni unlikely to feature. On their current form, Leicester are currently the best team in the Guinness Premiership (well, along with Northampton) as they have grabbed 20 points from their last 6 matches. Wasps go into this game having lost against Newcastle last week and with a narrow win against Harlequins in their festive match at Twickenham. Despite Wasps having won their last 5 meetings with Leicester since the Tigers lifted the 2008 EDF Energy Cup, I think the Tigers are coming to the boil nicely and their forwards will out power the Wasps' pack to set them up for the win.

My prediction: Leicester to win by 8.



Worcester Warriors vs London Irish

The news from earlier this week that Warriors' full-back and star player, Chris Latham, is departing from Sixways at the end of the season will undoubtedly have caused a certain level of unease in the Warriors' ranks, despite their quick replacement signing of Luke Rooney from Toulon.  Worcester are currently hovering one place above the drop zone, and along with the rather depressing statistic that Worcester are without a win in their last 8 Guinness Premiership matches and that they haven't beaten London Irish since 11 September 2005 means that things aren't looking too good for Mike Ruddock's men. When these teams last met on 5 December the result at the Madejski was a 16-16 draw, which was a surprise as most people expected Worcester to be dispatched up the M40 on the wrong end of a four try hammering. Whilst London Irish did lose to Northampton at Franklins Gardens last Saturday they still remain the team with the best away form in the Guinness Premiership, having racked up 17 points from their six games on the road. With Delon Armitage seemingly back to his best, the conditions for this match will be crucial as they will determine whether this game will be a scrappy affair fought and won upfront, or if the Exiles will keep on surging over the Warriors' try line. I suspect it will be the former.

My prediction: London Irish to win by 6.


So what do you think? Have I got my predictions right or am I suffering from brain freeze? Please let me know!