The Crunch

Well, well, well.  What a turn up for the books that was.

Leeds Carnegie grabbed a brilliant 23-13 win over London Irish at the Majedski Stadium on Sunday to set up a tantalizing penultimate round in the Guinness Premiership.

Playoff chasing Irish were outplayed by the better team on the day, and the result catapulted Leeds into 9th spot.  Relative safety, you might say.

Let's look at the table:

Leeds host relegation favourites Worcester on Sunday, and Sale entertain fellow strugglers Newcastle on Friday night.

The Gods of relegation couldn't have planned it better if they had tried.  The bottom four are all playing each other, and something, or someone has to give.

But what are the cold hard facts?

If Leeds beat Worcester then the Warriors are gone.  Doomed.  Consigned to a year of Championship rugby.  As Rafa Benitez would say, that is a fact.

But Sale and Newcastle are by no means safe yet. Whoever loses at Edgeley Park on Friday will be praying for a Leeds win, that I can guarantee.

However, if Mike Ruddock's men take four points from Neil Back's battling Leeds there is everything to play for in the final round. 

This would leave three of the four teams staring down both barrels of relegation on the last day of the season.

Gulp.

What a finale!  I know the argument about relegation/ringfencing and the viability of the Championship is rumbling on, but that is for another day.  End of season squeaky-bum finishes like this are the biggest advocate for promotion and relegation.

However, I wouldn't want to be one of the players who have put pen to paper on a Worcester Warriors contract for next season.  The bookies have them as 1/4 favourites for the drop.  Leeds are now 5/1 after drifting out from 7/4.  I'm not a betting woman, but I know that sucks for Wuss.

I've got to wonder though... Will new Worcester signing Andy Goode become the only comb-over in the Championship?  What of full back Luke Rooney who has set his sights on playing for England?  And will the excellent Neil Best still leave Northampton for Sixways?

Time to check out the get-out-of Championship-relegation-escape-clause in your contracts boys.  After all, the bookies are rarely wrong.

COME ON YOU TYKES!

Relegation Watch: Week 1

It's time for my weekly round up of the relegation run-in.

All five teams at the bottom failed to win any league points in round 18.

London Irish gave Sale a belated St Paddy's day thrashing in a 38-0 'greenwash'.

Sale's Mathew Tait decides the best plan is to close his eyes and wait for the nightmare to end.

Leeds Carnegie lost 19-0 to Gloucester, thanks to the boot of cherry and white fly-half Nicky Robinson.

Newcastle were, how can I put this, destroyed 58-15 by Saracens in a 7 try demolision.

Worcester put up a slightly better fight against Leicester, but the Tigers did a job on them in the second half to beat the Warriors 39-18.

Harlequins also suffered at the hands of in-form Bath and whimpered to a 24-13 defeat.

So, no change at the bottom then.

But, things are about to get rather tasty in the next round.  Sale and Worcester will battle it out at Edgeley Park in a classic '8 pointer'.

And Leeds entertain high flying Northampton in the sandpit that is Headingley Carnegie, whilst Newcastle make the trip to the Stoop to take on Quins.

So, after last weekend's results I'm going to stick with my original prediction:
Sale are still in the relegation hotseat.

The Guinness Premiership Relegation Run In

Now that the Six Nations has whimpered to an uninspiring conclusion it's all eyes back to the Guinness Premiership, Magners League and Heineken Cup.

As we approach the so called 'business end' of the season, I'll be looking at the teams jostling for position at the top of the Premiership and those fighting for survival at the bottom.

First up, I will cast my eyes over the teams hoping to avoid the dreaded trapdoor.

But which team will come up short?

Will Worcester be saved from the drop by scrappy bonus points?

Can Leeds Carnegie continue their recent winning streak and climb away from the Championship?

Do Newcastle have what it takes to stay in the top flight?

Or will Sale survive despite a torrid run of form?

The Guinness Premiership table

With only six rounds left the battle at the bottom is really hotting up.  Unlike previous seasons, the team that will fall by the Premiership wayside is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Home games are all important in the fight for Guinness Premiership survival, but so are the head to head matches between the teams at the bottom.

Sale play fellow relegation battlers Worcester and Newcastle in their run in, but crucially for Kingsley Jones' men both these games are at home.  The Sharks beat Wasps in their game in hand (also known as Pizzagate take two) to claw their way up to 10th.  However Sale's form has been dire recently, and prior to the win over Wasps they were suffering their worst run in the league since the 2000/01 season.

Leeds approach the final half dozen fixtures on the back of a three game winning streak in the league.  However the two week break won't have helped their momentum. Carnegie only two home games left to play - the lowest of all the teams facing the drop.  These are against high flying Northampton, and what promises to be an epic relegation dogfight against bottom of the table Worcester in the penultimate round.  Still, three of Leeds' five Guinness Premiership wins have been on the road, so this won't trouble Neil Back's men unduly.

Worcester are currently bottom of the pile and have tough games against top four teams Leicester and Wasps.  Wuss also face London Irish, who are pushing for a top four finish.  However all these games are at home, and in their last six matches Worcester only have to two games away from Sixways.  These matches are against fellow relegation fodder Leeds and Sale, which puts extra pressure on Mike Ruddock's team to at least win a couple of bonus points at home.

Newcastle have a nasty run-in, but they will take heart that they have already beaten Wasps and drawn with Sale this year.  Gloucester, Harlequins, Leicester and Saracens aren't the teams you want to be playing at this point in the season, especially as the spectre of relegation is looming.

But what about Harlequins and Gloucester?  Surely these two supremos won't be dragged down into the relegation dogfight? 

Probably not, although Quins did fall into the Championship in the 2004/05 season.  However the reality is that Quins and Glaws are only four points ahead of Newcastle and five points ahead of Sale and Leeds down in 10th and 11th.  Even bottom of the pile Worcester are only two wins away from overhauling these Premiership giants.  So it is possible that if, albeit rather unlikely, that if Gloucester and Harlequins make a hash of their home games, they could find the last few weeks of the season rather uncomfortable.

So what are each teams' chances of survival?  Here is what I think:

Gloucester

Points: 32
Position: 7th
Fixtures: Newcastle (A), Leeds (H), Saracens (H), Northampton (A), London Irish (H), Worcester (A)

Survival chance: As good as Bear Grylls living on a diet of twigs and dangleberries.  4.5/5.

Harlequins

Points: 32
Position: 8th
Fixtures: Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Leeds (H), Saracens (A: Wembley), Leicester (A), Sale (H)

Survival chance: Wins against two of the three strugglers Newcastle, Leeds or Sale will see them safe.  Quins might have experienced a few problems with blood, but nosebleeders they are not. 4/5

Newcastle

Points: 28
Position: 9th
Fixtures: Gloucester (H), Saracens (A), Harlequins (A), Leicester (H), Sale (A), Wasps (H)

Survival chance: Yuk. If the Falcons are to survive it's going to be tough. 1.5/5.

Sale

Points: 27
Position: 10th
Fixtures: London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Harlequins (A)

Survival chance: Everything rests on the outcome of the games against Worcester and Newcastle.  Win these and Sale are in with a shout.  Lose them both and Sale are sunk. 1/5.

Leeds

Points: 27
Position: 11th
Fixtures: Gloucester (A), Northampton (H), Harlequins (A), London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Bath (A)

Survival chance: It's by no means an easy run in, but recent wins over Saracens and Wasps show Leeds could have what it takes to stay up. 3/5.

Worcester

Points: 25
Position: 12th
Fixtures: Leicester (H), Sale (A), London Irish (H), Wasps (H), Leeds (A), Gloucester (H)

Survival chance: It's another tough batch of games and the match at Leeds looks like it will be crucial.  However, Worcester have a habit of surviving against the odds. 3.5/5.


So by my calculations the toothless Sharks will be swimming in the Championship next season.

Well, unless they are saved by the fiasco of the Championship playoff system that is.

But what do you think? 

Will Sale be the ones plummeting through the Guinness Premiership trapdoor on Saturday 8th May?