Relegation Watch: Week 1

It's time for my weekly round up of the relegation run-in.

All five teams at the bottom failed to win any league points in round 18.

London Irish gave Sale a belated St Paddy's day thrashing in a 38-0 'greenwash'.

Sale's Mathew Tait decides the best plan is to close his eyes and wait for the nightmare to end.

Leeds Carnegie lost 19-0 to Gloucester, thanks to the boot of cherry and white fly-half Nicky Robinson.

Newcastle were, how can I put this, destroyed 58-15 by Saracens in a 7 try demolision.

Worcester put up a slightly better fight against Leicester, but the Tigers did a job on them in the second half to beat the Warriors 39-18.

Harlequins also suffered at the hands of in-form Bath and whimpered to a 24-13 defeat.

So, no change at the bottom then.

But, things are about to get rather tasty in the next round.  Sale and Worcester will battle it out at Edgeley Park in a classic '8 pointer'.

And Leeds entertain high flying Northampton in the sandpit that is Headingley Carnegie, whilst Newcastle make the trip to the Stoop to take on Quins.

So, after last weekend's results I'm going to stick with my original prediction:
Sale are still in the relegation hotseat.

The Guinness Premiership Relegation Run In

Now that the Six Nations has whimpered to an uninspiring conclusion it's all eyes back to the Guinness Premiership, Magners League and Heineken Cup.

As we approach the so called 'business end' of the season, I'll be looking at the teams jostling for position at the top of the Premiership and those fighting for survival at the bottom.

First up, I will cast my eyes over the teams hoping to avoid the dreaded trapdoor.

But which team will come up short?

Will Worcester be saved from the drop by scrappy bonus points?

Can Leeds Carnegie continue their recent winning streak and climb away from the Championship?

Do Newcastle have what it takes to stay in the top flight?

Or will Sale survive despite a torrid run of form?

The Guinness Premiership table

With only six rounds left the battle at the bottom is really hotting up.  Unlike previous seasons, the team that will fall by the Premiership wayside is by no means a foregone conclusion.

Home games are all important in the fight for Guinness Premiership survival, but so are the head to head matches between the teams at the bottom.

Sale play fellow relegation battlers Worcester and Newcastle in their run in, but crucially for Kingsley Jones' men both these games are at home.  The Sharks beat Wasps in their game in hand (also known as Pizzagate take two) to claw their way up to 10th.  However Sale's form has been dire recently, and prior to the win over Wasps they were suffering their worst run in the league since the 2000/01 season.

Leeds approach the final half dozen fixtures on the back of a three game winning streak in the league.  However the two week break won't have helped their momentum. Carnegie only two home games left to play - the lowest of all the teams facing the drop.  These are against high flying Northampton, and what promises to be an epic relegation dogfight against bottom of the table Worcester in the penultimate round.  Still, three of Leeds' five Guinness Premiership wins have been on the road, so this won't trouble Neil Back's men unduly.

Worcester are currently bottom of the pile and have tough games against top four teams Leicester and Wasps.  Wuss also face London Irish, who are pushing for a top four finish.  However all these games are at home, and in their last six matches Worcester only have to two games away from Sixways.  These matches are against fellow relegation fodder Leeds and Sale, which puts extra pressure on Mike Ruddock's team to at least win a couple of bonus points at home.

Newcastle have a nasty run-in, but they will take heart that they have already beaten Wasps and drawn with Sale this year.  Gloucester, Harlequins, Leicester and Saracens aren't the teams you want to be playing at this point in the season, especially as the spectre of relegation is looming.

But what about Harlequins and Gloucester?  Surely these two supremos won't be dragged down into the relegation dogfight? 

Probably not, although Quins did fall into the Championship in the 2004/05 season.  However the reality is that Quins and Glaws are only four points ahead of Newcastle and five points ahead of Sale and Leeds down in 10th and 11th.  Even bottom of the pile Worcester are only two wins away from overhauling these Premiership giants.  So it is possible that if, albeit rather unlikely, that if Gloucester and Harlequins make a hash of their home games, they could find the last few weeks of the season rather uncomfortable.

So what are each teams' chances of survival?  Here is what I think:

Gloucester

Points: 32
Position: 7th
Fixtures: Newcastle (A), Leeds (H), Saracens (H), Northampton (A), London Irish (H), Worcester (A)

Survival chance: As good as Bear Grylls living on a diet of twigs and dangleberries.  4.5/5.

Harlequins

Points: 32
Position: 8th
Fixtures: Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Leeds (H), Saracens (A: Wembley), Leicester (A), Sale (H)

Survival chance: Wins against two of the three strugglers Newcastle, Leeds or Sale will see them safe.  Quins might have experienced a few problems with blood, but nosebleeders they are not. 4/5

Newcastle

Points: 28
Position: 9th
Fixtures: Gloucester (H), Saracens (A), Harlequins (A), Leicester (H), Sale (A), Wasps (H)

Survival chance: Yuk. If the Falcons are to survive it's going to be tough. 1.5/5.

Sale

Points: 27
Position: 10th
Fixtures: London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Saracens (H), Bath (A), Newcastle (H), Harlequins (A)

Survival chance: Everything rests on the outcome of the games against Worcester and Newcastle.  Win these and Sale are in with a shout.  Lose them both and Sale are sunk. 1/5.

Leeds

Points: 27
Position: 11th
Fixtures: Gloucester (A), Northampton (H), Harlequins (A), London Irish (A), Worcester (H), Bath (A)

Survival chance: It's by no means an easy run in, but recent wins over Saracens and Wasps show Leeds could have what it takes to stay up. 3/5.

Worcester

Points: 25
Position: 12th
Fixtures: Leicester (H), Sale (A), London Irish (H), Wasps (H), Leeds (A), Gloucester (H)

Survival chance: It's another tough batch of games and the match at Leeds looks like it will be crucial.  However, Worcester have a habit of surviving against the odds. 3.5/5.


So by my calculations the toothless Sharks will be swimming in the Championship next season.

Well, unless they are saved by the fiasco of the Championship playoff system that is.

But what do you think? 

Will Sale be the ones plummeting through the Guinness Premiership trapdoor on Saturday 8th May?

Leeds Carnegie vs Harlequins: Preview

What is it about the doom and gloom merchants?  I've barely had time to open the first few doors on my Thomas the Tank Engine advent calendar and already they're casting their eyes towards the final fixture of the season when Leeds take on Bath at the Rec.  This game is already being touted as the game that might decide the relegation battle, but seriously, we aren't even half way through the season yet and there is plenty more rugby to play.

I know Bath are perilously close to the bottom of the table, but if Leeds can pull off a victory against Quins tomorrow night at a chilly Headingley Carnegie they stand a chance of leapfrogging the Baarth Boys into 11th place.  Why do I bring this up?  It's because I think Leeds are going to kick start the rest of their season and beat Quins tomorrow, whilst Bath are going to lose to away at Northampton - that's why, and that's why one fixture at the end of season does not a season make.

Leeds coach Neil Back doesn't appear to be stressing out about Leeds' current home at the foot of the table.  If anything he is positively realistic:

"Our objective this year is to finish 11th or above and if we can continue to take steps forward that will give us a boost going into the next two European games. [After Harlequins] we then face two big games back in the Premiership, up at Newcastle and at home against Bath over the Christmas and New Year period. We have now got five massive games that can determine the pathway that we take this season, starting on Friday."

OK, so he does admit that Leeds have to start winning games, but I think they are about to turn that corner and will hopefully do so tomorrow night.

Leeds will undoubtedly have been disappointed in the way they let a 17-3 lead slip through their fingers at home to Sale a couple weeks ago, and their frustration will have been compounded at Welford Road last Saturday when a 6-6 hard fought half time score developed into a 39-6 final score line.

Neil Back remains positive

Speaking of the defeat at the hands of his old club, Back said:
"We gave the ball up cheaply at times and we knew that that could come back to hurt us in the second half and that was case.  We will learn from that experience though."


And that is why Harlequins should be nervous.  After an away win at Wasps, what should have been an away win against Saracens (had it not been for an incorrectly disallowed try), and excellent first half performances against Sale and Leicester, Leeds are almost there and they will be desperate to nail down their first home win of the season.  Of course, a game of rugby lasts 80 minutes and not 40 so Leeds have to maintain their focus and discipline tomorrow night.

The bad news for Leeds is that they will face a Harlequins side who will arrive at Headingley fresh from a 35-29 victory over Gloucester last week.  In that game ex-Leeds boy Danny Care and Kiwi Nick Evans (who would undoubtedly have won more than his 23 international caps if it hadn't been for the arrival of a certain Daniel Carter into the All Blacks team) ran riot over Gloucester.  Leeds will really have to nullify the threat of this half back pairing if they want to hold onto the reins of this game.  Luckily for Leeds they have wily Andy Gommersall at their disposal: ex-Quin and one time mentor of Danny Care.  Gommersall will undoubtedly use all his guile and experience to try and teach his protege a thing or two on the pitch, and this will be a fascinating battle to watch.

We miss you Danny

Other bad news for Leeds is the injury problems that have hit the back row.  Arguably Leeds' best player Hendre Fourie (openside flanker) is out with an infected leg (nice), whilst number 8 Alfie To'oala has a damaged leg muscle.  Fly-half Ceiron Thomas is not included in the squad after injuring himself in the warm up before last weekend's game at Leicester, so 19 year old Joe Ford wins his second cap after doing enough last weekend to justify his starting place above Jason Strange.

However, good news for Leeds is that Argentina prop Juan Gomez returns to add some muscle to the scrum, and that Ugo Monye is ill (no offence Ugo).  This means that Tom "Bloodgate" Williams will take to the wing along with David Strettle.  I'm sure there won't be any squirting of tomato sauce or offensive chanting about the fake blood fiasco as we're a nice lot up here in Leeds - well, at least I think we are!  We really need to concentrate on the rugby and everyone needs to put all that rubbish behind us.

In conclusion, after watching Leeds over the course of the season I think they are ready and poised to shift up a gear and clinch their first home game of the season.  Everyone and his wife knows about the events which unfolded at the Stoop this summer, and whilst Quins started off the season in a shaky manner, they too are starting to pull together convincing winning performances.  Please excuse the pun but I expect this game to be full of bang and an early Christmas cracker.

My prediction:  Leeds to win by 3.

A Round of Missed Opportunites

This year's Heineken Cup Round 2 has to go down as one of the tightest in recent years, and whilst my predictions weren't too far off, certain teams have got to feel like they've really missed an opportunity to stamp their authority on the competition.

First up was Sale vs Cardiff Blues, and even though I thought this would be a closely run encounter I didn't see it going right down to the wire and finishing 27-26. The harsh sin-binning of Cardiff's resident Whitesnake impersonator Andy Powell saw Sale amass a quick 14 points and a lead that remained one point too many for the Blues to conquer.

Elsewhere Northampton fell short at a reinvigorated Perpignan, with the French team bouncing back from a shock defeat in the rain soaked opening round against Treviso. I really thought Northampton might pull a surprise victory out of the bag in the south of France but it wasn't to be. The only souvenir they took away from a bruising visit to the one time home of the luscious Dan Carter was a severe crack of whiplash for the suitably D'Artagnan-bearded Ben Foden, when he was unceremoniously dumped on his arse by the human bulldozer that is Henry Tuilagi. If you missed this expert demolition using an illegal shoulder charge then you can view it again here:

Ouch.

Yesterday I watched the Brive vs Leinster game which was a penalty strewn and scrappy affair saved only by the dynamic running of Leinster hot bod Rob Kearney to score the opening try, quick hands from Brian O'Driscoll, and an excellent performance from man of the match Kevin McLauglin. Another almost faultless performance from Jonny Sexton will undoubtedly have Ronan O'Gara reaching for the Horlicks to try and avoid many sleepless nights in the run up to the autumn internationals: If ever there was an international number 10 in waiting then Jonny Sexton is the man.

That aside, Leinster will be disappointed not to come away from France with a winning bonus point, especially against a Brive side that didn't offer too much other than constant indiscipline. Still, at least this provided a quick burst of handbag waving entertainment to liven up the end of this rather uninspiring game, when Brian O'Driscoll and Andy "Timotei" Goode indulged the crowd with a gentle slapping competition. Maybe Andy is just jealous of Brian's superior hairline?

Away from France, London Irish will be left to rue a missed chance thanks to a last gasp penalty for the Scarlets courtesy of Sesame Street's Count (aka Stephen Jones). This game finished up 25-27 with London Irish undoing all their good work with an away win away at Champions Leinster last round. Oh well, serves you right for beating my favourite Irish team.

Stephen Jones is the man counting the win

Tonight, the Harlequins and Bath players will probably all be at home swigging bottles of gin whilst they freeze their nads off in ice baths after both teams lost their second pool game of the tournament. This pair of losing performances pretty much ends their chances of progressing to the next round, which is a shame as both sides were comfortably leading this weekend's games at half time before they both committed Heineken Cup hara-kiri.

The final team who really missed a chance to press home their advantage in the competition was Clermont Auvergne who lost 25-24 at the Ospreys. I really wish I'd watched this game, as despite leading 22-3 at half time, the Ospreys almost threw it away to a resurgent Clermont side. Unfortunately for all the Welsh ladies out there, Mike Phillips hobbled off with a foot injury just before half time, which means that the much less attractive Dwayne Peel might get a shout for the international games next month. Never mind, I'm sure he has some fans out there - probably the same ones that fancy his twin brother: Emmerdale's Andy Sugden.

Finally (and most importantly) this afternoon I witnessed the rare event that is a bonus point victory for Leeds Carnegie. In a game littered with the usual smorgasbord of Leeds handling errors which included several passes flying into touch or being fumbled to the floor, Leeds out muscled a rotund Parma side and secured the bonus point with just over ten minutes of the game remaining.

As the scoring opportunities went begging in the first half I did wonder if Leeds were lacking the killer instinct and would be able to punish the Italian side who looked like they'd spent far too much time woofing pizza then doing bench-presses at the gym. Happily, for every mistake Leeds made Parma made two, which allowed a much changed Leeds side to press home for victory and rack up the points in the second half. Leeds ended the game with an impressive scoreline of 37-13 but they are certainly going to have to raise their performance and banish the sloppy guiseppe style mistakes before next Sunday when they take a trip down the M1 to top of the table Saracens. If they don't tighten up I can't see anything happening apart from a ritual humiliation in front of the Vicarage Road faithful.

Anyway, let's see how my predictions fared against the results this weekend:

(Correct predictions highlighted in bold)

Newport-Gwent D'gons 22-14 Glasgow
Perpignan 29-13 Northampton
Sale 27-26 Cardiff Blues
Biarritz 42-15 Gloucester
Brive 13-36 Leinster
Edinburgh 17-13 Ulster
Harlequins 19-23 Toulouse
London Irish 25-27 Scarlets
Munster 41-10 Treviso
Viadana 11-46 Leicester
Bath 27-29 Stade Francais
Ospreys 25-24 Clermont Auvergne

Not too shabby at all as I only missed out on two correct predictions. I'm really rather pleased with myself!

Anyway, that's all for now. A review of the eagerly anticipated Lions 2009: Living with the Pride DVD is coming soon...