Heineken Cup Previews and Predictions: Round 6

All aboard for this week's predictions of the last round of Heineken Cup pool games.  Which teams will progress to the knockout rounds and which teams will fall by the wayside?  Here are my previews and predictions:

Pool 1

Munster v Northampton

This Friday night fixture is one of the biggest of the round as Heineken Cup supremos Munster take on high flying Northampton at Thomond Park in the match that will decide the winner of Pool 1.  Last weekend Northampton started slowly at home against Perpignan but went through the gears in the second half to defeat their uninspiring visitors by 34-0.  Munster on the other hand, notched up a six try win away at Treviso.  The Saints did defeat Munster 31-27 at Franklins Gardens in the opening match of the competition but at home Munster are a different prospect, especially after completing back to back wins over Perpignan and Treviso.  I expect this to be an action packed game, especially if Northampton can get a platform from the scrum and provide good ball to their back line.  However I can't bet against Munster at home in this competition.

My prediction:  Munster to win by 8.


Perpignan v Treviso

After their respective hammerings last weekend neither of these teams can qualify (not that Treviso ever really stood much of a chance).  Back on their home turf and against the Italian whipping boys, I think that Perpignan will bounce back from last Sunday's result and give Treviso a good going over.  Don't forget that Perpignan will have a score to settle after Treviso beat them in round one with the shock scoreline of 9-8.

My prediction: Perpignan to win by 18.


Pool 2

Biarritz v Glasgow

Despite losing 23-8 to Gloucester last weekend in their only loss so far in the competition, Biarritz have already qualified from Pool 2.  This means all that is left to play for is second spot and the chance to qualify as one of the two best runners up.  Sadly for Glasgow, this isn't achievable, as they currently sit third in the pool and even a bonus point win would only leave them on 14 points which just isn't quite good enough.  Glasgow won 29-25 last weekend against the Dragons, and the question of whether they will win this weekend will be decided on the team that Biarritz decide to field, bearing in mind that they've already secured their ticket to the knockout stages.  If anything I think the fact that Biarritz have already secured their qualification spot will let them play with more freedom and no fear. 

My prediction:  Biarritz to win by 10.


Newport-Gwent Dragons v Gloucester

Gloucester need to claim a bonus point win away at Rodney Parade if they are to stand any chance of qualification.  Last weekend they beat pool leaders Biarritz whilst the Dragons lost out in a close encounter against Glasgow.  When these two teams met in the opening round, Gloucester came from behind after half time to win 19-17.  Looking at their current form and the fact that Gloucester have it all to play for, I think Gloucester will nick the rematch.

My prediction:  Gloucester to win by 5.

Pool 3
 
Ospreys v Leicester
 
The tightest pool of them all is Pool 3, where Leicester (top with 17 points) lead the Ospreys and Clermont Auvergne (both on 16 points).  The Ospreys and Leicester both need a bonus point win in order to stand any hope of progressing, as Clermont pretty much only have to turn up at Viadana to come away with a four try haul and the full five points.  Maths isn't my strong point, but if Clermont take the five points away from Italy and rack up a much improved try tally, the destiny of Leicester and the Ospreys is in their hands as only a bonus point victory will do.  Last week the Ospreys were dismantled to the tune of 27-7 by Clermont, whilst the Tigers roared to a 47-8 victory over Viadana.  Given that Leicester don't seem to be fazed by a big occasion, I'm tipping them to win.
 
My prediction:  Leicester by 13.
 

Viadana v Clermont Auvergne

Viadana:  Played 5.  Won 0.  Points difference -173. 
Fifteen road cones would be more of a work out for Clermont Auvergne.

My prediction:  Clermont Auvergne to win by 40.


Pool 4

Bath v Ulster

Bath have been improving slowly but surely in this competition and last weekend they were narrowly defeated 15-13 away by Pool 4 leaders Stade Français.  Bath are still bottom of the pool, but at home they could well prove to be a potential banana skin for Ulster who have won their three home games but lost twice on the road in this competition.  Ulster are still in with a shot to qualify for the next round if they take the full five points on offer and if Stade Français lose to Edinburgh.  Bath on the other hand, have nothing to play for except any small patch of form that they can take back into the Guinness Premiership.  Last weekend Ulster beat Edinburgh 21-13 at Ravenhill so they will go into the game with confidence, but for some reason I think Bath might well sneak a win.

My prediction:  Bath to win by 4.


Edinburgh v Stade Français

Stade Français hammered Edinburgh 31-7 when these two sides met back in October and the French side has won all three of their home games, albeit the last one a close 15-13 win over Bath.  Away from home, Stade have been anything but convincing as their narrow 29-27 victory over Bath and their 23-13 loss at Ulster show.  Therefore with Ulster breathing down their neck, Stade Français will really have to raise their away game to secure their progression to the knockout stages.  Edinburgh's two wins in this competition both came at home (17-13 over Ulster and 9-6 over Bath) so they will be looking to complete a clean sweep of home wins in the competition.  This game is by no means a foregone conclusion.

My prediction:  Stade to win by 3.

Pool 5

Harlequins v Cardiff Blues

Last year's semi-finalists, the Cardiff Blues, looked dead and buried in this year's competition until last weekend's 36-19 win over a Sale side who looked to have found traction in the Pool and were set to threaten table toppers Toulouse.  The Blues' win lifted them above Sale on points difference, and although neither Sale nor Cardiff can topple Toulouse (who have qualified already), both sides are still in with a shout for a best runner up spot.  Harlequins lost 33-21 away at Toulouse last weekend and have been out of the competition for a couple of weeks, having won none of their five games.  I'm sure the Quins will be looking to restore a bit of pride, especially in front of their home crowd, but Cardiff have it all to play for.  Saying that, the Blues have lost both of their away fixtures in the Heineken Cup this season so they'll need to conjure up another great performance to stand any chance of making it out of the group stages.

My prediction:  Cardiff to win by 8.

Sale v Toulouse

Unlike the Cardiff Blues, Sale have the all important home advantage in the final round of the Pool stages.  Sale were beaten 36-17 by Toulouse in the first round of the competition, but since then they strung together three winning performances in a row before their away defeat to the Blues last weekend.  The only game that Toulouse have lost so far in the competition was the 15-9 away defeat by the Cardiff Blues, although the Quins ran them close at The Twickenham Stoop as they led their Gallic guests 14-0 at half time before Toulouse won in dramatic style to end the game victorious with a 23-19 winning score line.  Therefore with Toulouse seemingly not as up for it when they're away from home and with their qualification already in the bag, Sale really have a good chance of winning this game.

My prediction:  Sale to win by 6.


Pool 6

Brive v Scarlets

Poor Brive.  Last weekend's spirited showing against Leinster was too little, too late for the 1997 Heineken Cup winners, who for all intents and purposes have been about as threatening as a marshmallow in this year's competition.  Despite holding a rusty looking Leinster to a seven point lead at half time, Brive still ended up on the wrong end of a bonus point win as the holders ran in four tries and ended the game as 27-10 victors.  Therefore I can't see that a slightly improved Brive side will pose too much of a threat to the travelling Scarlets, who will undoubtedly be buoyed by their excellent 31-22 victory over London Irish last weekend.  Looking at the Pool standings, the Scarlets will not only need a bonus point win to stand any chance of progression as a runner up, but they will also have to hope that Leinster do them a massive favour and beat London Irish and that the results in the other pools go their way.

My prediction:  Scarlets to win by 18.


London Irish v Leinster

Finally, and last but by no means least, is the much hyped fixture between the Exiles and the current holders of the Heineken Cup, Leinster.  As Pool deciders go this one has to be up there with the best.  At times in this competition both of these teams have played some wide, expansive and exciting rugby which sets this game up as a truly mouth-watering winner takes all fixture.  Last weekend Leinster creaked against Brive after not playing a game for a few weeks, and yet a magical pass from Shane Horgan to Saint Brian O'Driscoll saw Michael Cheika's men from Dublin snatch a last minute try scoring bonus point in their 27-10 victory over Brive.  London Irish lost at the Parc-y-Scarlets last weekend, but lest we forget the shock of round one when the Exiles went to the RDS and came away with the scalp of the champions when they beat Leinster 12-9 in a try-less affair.  Since then, Leinster have looked unstoppable in this competition and whilst I think they will win this match, if you can only watch one game this weekend then I suggest that you go for this one.

My prediction:  Leinster to win by 9.

So what do you think?  Are my predictions spot on this week or am I way off target?

Heineken Cup Previews and Predictions: Round 5

It's prediction time again ahead of round five of the Heineken Cup.  Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend's fixtures:

Pool 1

Treviso v Munster
A trip for table toppers Munster to bottom of the pile Treviso will probably be a jaunt that men in red won't mind, especially as they thumped Treviso 41-10 at Thomond Park in October.  With Munster leading the group by two points over Northampton they will be hoping to dish up more of the same and snaffle another try scoring bonus point.

My prediction:  Munster to win by 12.

Northampton v Perpignan
When these two met in the south of France, the buoyant Saints were taught a lesson by a physical Perpignan team who went on to beat them 29-13.  (Remember Henry Tuilagi's shoulder charge on Ben Foden?  Crunch).  The Saints are enjoying a purple patch of form in the Guinness Premiership, although they only narrowly won their last Heineken Cup game away at Treviso by 21-18.  With Perpignan currently lying third in the pool behind Northampton, they need a win to stand any chance of remaining in the competition.  I think it's going to be close.

My prediction:  Northampton to win by 4.

Pool 2

Gloucester v Biarritz
Top of the table Biarritz are unbeaten in the Heineken Cup and are proudly perched at the top of the group with a magnificent 18 points.  Gloucester lie in second place, a whole ten points behind them after their victory over Glasgow in the previous round.  I know that Gloucester have home advantage and I know that traditionally French teams don't play well on their travels, but I think Biarittz will take the stuttering Gloucester to the cleaners.

My prediction:  Biarritz to win by 10.

Glasgow v Newport-Gwent Dragons
These two sides are currently locked on five points with both teams having secured one win and one bonus point so far in the competition.  Glasgow are top of the Magners league with seven wins from ten games, whilst the Dragons have won five of their matches in the domestic league.  Looking at their recent Magners league form the Dragons come into this game on the back of two defeats, whilst Glasgow notched up two festive wins over rivals Edinburgh.  I think home advantage will be the deciding factor in this fixture, with Glasgow coming out on top.

My prediction:  Glasgow to win by 6.

 

 Pool 3

Clermont Auvergne v Ospreys
The Ospreys are somewhat surprisingly top of Pool 3 given the quality of rugby shown by Clermont and the grit and determination displayed by Leicester in previous rounds.  Clermont lost 20-15 at Welford Road in the round four in a game that the Tigers had to win in order to keep their Heineken Cup dreams alive.  This came after their sensational 40-30 winning battle against the Tigers in the previous round.  The Ospreys trounced Viadana in their back to back fixtures which leaves them with a couple of much tougher games to wind up the group stages.  With everything to play for in Pool 3 both teams will come out firing, but I think the French will have the edge.

My prediction:  Clermont to win by 9.

Leicester v Viadana
When the Tigers travelled to Viadana in October they ran in six tries, added a seventh in the form of a penalty try and came out 46-11 victors.  With Leicester tied on twelve points with Clermont Auvergne, nothing less than a bonus point win will do.  Easy peasy.

My prediction:  Leicester to win by at least 20.

Pool 4

Stade Francais v Bath
Who would bet against top of the pool and Heineken Cup supremos Stade when they take on bottom of the pool Bath who have been luke warm at best this season?  Bath have one Heineken Cup scalp which came in the scrappy 16-9 win over Edinburgh at the Rec on a cold December day.  I wouldn't bet against Stade at home, even though they are facing a Bath side whose confidence is starting to grow after a terrible first half of the season.

My prediction:  Stade to win by 14.

Ulster v Edinburgh
Last weekend Edinburgh beat Cardiff Blues 21-12 in the only Magners league game that survived the snow, which will have been cold comfort after their back to back losses against Glasgow.  Ulster beat Munster 15-10 at home in their last Magners league game, with their last two games in the Heineken Cup against Stade Francais being won by the home side on the day.  Edinburgh achieved the same feat against Bath, but this isn't quite as impressive an achievement.  Add all this with home advantage and I think Ulster will walk off the pitch victorious.

My prediction:  Ulster to win by 7.

Pool 5

Cardiff Blues v Sale
Sale have it all to play for as they are a mere one point behind pool 5 leaders Toulouse with three wins from their four matches.  Cardiff Blues aren't just making up the numbers, as a home win would propel them into second place with a game against bottom placed Harlequins still to come.  Sale won both of their back to back fixtures against Harlequins whilst the Blues beat Toulouse at home 15-9 but lost 23-7 in the reverse fixture.  The Blues have lost their last two games in the Magners league whilst Sale beat Harlequins for the third time in twenty one days, this time in the Guinness Premiership, after losing 15-13 at table toppers Saracens. 

My prediction:  Sale to win by 3.

Toulouse v Harlequins
Harlequins crashed out of this competition a couple of rounds ago, but when Toulouse ventured to west London in round two the Quins had them rattled when they led them 14-0 at half time.  A dogged Toulouse came back and grasped a 23-19 victory so the French will know that Quins aren't a push over.  The question is whether Harlequins will field a strong side and put up a fight or if they will save their stars for the Guinness Premiership now that they're out of the cup.  Either way I think that table toppers Toulouse will be too strong for them again.

My prediction:  Toulouse to win by 9.

Pool 6

Leinster v Brive
Top plays bottom in what I envisage will be a Leinster rout of winless Brive.  The only question really is how many tries will Leinster run in past their Gallic guests?  I think it will be at least six or seven.

My prediction:  Leinster to win comfortably by 35.

Scarlets v London Irish
If the Scarlets are to progress in the Heineken Cup this season then they will have to secure second spot in the pool and hope they make the cut as one of the two best runners up.  It's tough ask for them to beat London Irish but they did a job over the Exiles at the Madejski Stadium in their 27-25 win last October.  Since then they've faltered in the Magners League and suffered back to back Heineken Cup trouncings from last year's winners Leinster.

My prediction:  London Irish to win by 10

So what do you think?  Are my predictions correct this week?

Heineken Cup Round 4: Previews and Predictions

Hmm...  So last week my efforts to correctly predict the results of the rich smorgasboard of Heineken Cup rugby were rather hit and miss.  In fact, I only correctly predicted 50% of the winning teams, which, let's be honest, is a bit below par.  Therefore, with round four heralding the return legs in the back-to-back fixtures, I'm hoping that the results from last weekend will make this week's job a little easier for me.  Here goes...

Pool 1

Perpignan vs Munster
Last week I tipped the French side to pay scant regard to the mighty Thomond Park faithful and push past Munster to a 6 point win.  It was a very close encounter for the French invaders, who held a narrow lead at the death before the mercurial boot of Ronan O'Gara kicked Munster to a 24-23 victory.  It's not often that the team who scores three tries to the opposition's none comes out of the game with a loss, although praise has to be heaped at O'Gara's door after a near faultless performance in which he kicked all of Munster's points.  I know that traditionally French sides don't travel well, so losing by a single point is a dangerous sign for the red men of Munster.  Back on their home turf with the added pressure of failing to continue to the next round should they lose, I expect Perpignan to win the return fixture.

My prediction:  Perpignan by 5.

Treviso vs Northampton
Northampton thumped Treviso in a convincing manner in their 30-18 victory and happily bagged a try-scoring bonus point to lift them to second spot in the group.  With Munster facing a difficult fixture in the south of France over third placed Perpignan, Northampton have the opportunity to sneak into top spot as long as they don't become complacent.  Don't forget, Treviso beat Perpignan in round one of the competition so they are far from being a complete pushover.  Of course, the Saints will have a more difficult task to bag a bonus point win away from home, but I tip them to dish out more of last week's healthy helping of trys.

My prediction:  Northampton by 10.


Pool 2

Gloucester vs Glasgow
The Warriors from Glasgow successfully plotted Gloucester's demise last weekend on their home turf and the question is whether they can do the same down at Kingsholm.  I think they probably can, although my gut feeling tells me that this game will be a lot closer than the 33-11 victory which Glasgow enjoyed last weekend.  Pool 2 is still fairly tight if you discount Biarritz who look to have already romped away with top spot, so there is still everything to play for.

My prediction:  A gutsy Gloucester performance but Glasgow to win by 9.

Newport-Gwent Dragons vs Biarritz
Last week, my prediction for the Biarritz vs Dragons game stated that the Dragons would snort a bit of fire and smoulder to a 6 point victory.  This of course meant that the 49-13 win for Biarritz was totally expected.  It's difficult for me to ignore such a conclusive score-line when predicting the result for this weekend, even though Biarritz will be away from home and their Top 14 form has been woefully inconsistent.  Therefore I'm going to have to back the French to do the double over the Dragons - just not by as much this time.

My prediction:  Biarritz to win by 14.


Pool 3

Ospreys vs Viadana
Viadana, or as I'm sure all the teams in Pool 3 are calling them: an easy 5 pointer.  After the Ospreys swooped and devoured the Italian side last weekend in a 62-7 trouncing, the question isn't whether they will repeat this feat this weekend, rather how many points will the Ospreys beat the Italian side by?  Viadana can no longer qualify from this Pool but this doesn't mean they won't try to put up a fight.  Despite this, I think Viadana will be on the wrong end of another complete drubbing.

My prediction:  Ospreys by 35.

Leicester vs Clermont Auvergne
Now we're talking.  This is by far and away the juiciest fixture of the weekend.  Leicester need a win over Clermont (preferably of the bonus point variety) in order to keep their Heineken Cup dreams alive.  Last year's losing finalists almost pulled a surprise two bonus points out of the bag last Saturday against their French rivals in a frantic final twenty minutes.  This was despite Clermont having a firm grip on the game throughout.  With the final score a tasty 40-30 and with Leicester returning to Welford Road empty handed after last week's battle, I expect the Tigers to throw everything into this game.  Home advantage will be crucial, as will Clermont Auvergne's concentration and desire to press home their advantage in the group.  Dan Hipkiss and Harry Ellis are likely to make returns from injury which will add power and zip to the Leicester starting fifteen.  If you can only watch one game this weekend than I suggest that you go for this one.

My prediction:  Leicester to give it everything and to win by 10.


Pool 4

Stade Français vs Ulster
Ulster were victorious at their Ravenshill home last weekend, and this Saturday the return leg takes the teams to Brussels in an attempt to showcase top quality rugby to a Belgian audience.  This fixture will undoubtedly contain a bit of spice after Stade scrum-half Julien Dupuy and flanker David Attoub were hauled before a disciplinary panel after seemingly gouging the eyes of Ulster's Stephen Ferris in last Saturday’s game. (The decision of the panel is still pending at the time of writing). I can only think that Stade's home fixture being played at a neutral venue can only be of benefit to Ulster due to Stade’s inconsistency on the road, and if fly-half Ian Humphreys can weigh in with a performance of the same calibre as last weekend, then I think Ulster have a very good chance of winning this game too.

My prediction:  Ulster by 8.

Edinburgh vs Bath
Hurray!  A correct prediction and a win for Bath.  OK, so the 16-9 final score-line wasn't the most scintillating result from last weekend, but a win's a win and this along with a superior points difference lifted Bath off the bottom of Pool 4.  Edinburgh replaced them in the basement, but with home advantage this weekend I think Edinburgh will reverse the result in what will probably be another low scoring match.  That's the prompt to cue an out and out try-fest...

My prediction:  Edinburgh by 7.


Pool 5

Toulouse vs Cardiff Blues
Last weekend's 15-9 score line was a good win for the Blues over three times Heineken Cup winners Toulouse, although in comparison with the other try packed games on offer this was more of a damp squib than a spectacle.  Again the old chestnut of French teams failing to travel well seemed to ring true last weekend, but with Toulouse only holding on with their fingertips to a one point lead at the top of Pool 5 from both Sale and the Blues, I think they will come out and grab a victory at Stadium Municipal de Toulouse on Saturday to gain a firm grip on top spot.

My prediction:  Toulouse by 6.

Sale vs Harlequins
Well what a big disappointment for all Quins' fans.  Sure, Sale played some great rugby last Sunday in the 29-19 victory over Harlequins at The Stoop, but Quins are now out of the competition and have nothing left to play for apart from that all important pride.  Danny Care is back for the west London club after he was slapped with a one match ban for a dangerous dump tackle in the Guinness Premiership game at Leeds Carnegie, and his return will add some zip and urgency to the Quins backline.  Sale will be gunning for another bonus point win whilst simultaneously praying for a low scoring and try-less affair in France, both of which will help their cause in pushing for top spot in the Pool.  The question is, will the Edgeley Park pitch that has been under the microscope in recent weeks allow Sale to play running rugby, or will Sale become bogged down by their own expectations?

My prediction:  A closer score line than last week, but Sale to win by 6.

Pool 6

London Irish vs Brive
Brive are the Viadana of Pool 6: out of the competition, superglued to the bottom of the Pool on zero points, and perceived as a team that can be beaten in style to earn the much sought after five points.  Last weekend, London Irish demolished a Brive side who showed little invention, despite having beaten Toulouse the previous weekend in the French Top 14 competition.  Chris Malone did most of the damage for London Irish, starting ahead of Ryan Lamb at fly-half and bagging 14 points which included a try.  Despite Brive's inability to progress from the pool, Jamie Noon, Steve Thompson and Andy Goode will all travel to Reading which indicates that Brive want to make a match of it.  At the impressive Madejski Stadium I can't see London Irish do anything other than win this game though, and convincingly so.

My prediction:  London Irish to win comfortably by 18.

Leinster vs Scarlets
Last but by no means least is Leinster vs Scarlets.  The meeting between this pair last Saturday was my favourite game of the weekend by far, especially Leinster's first half performance which was a master class in attacking, running rugby which resulted in a 32-7 away win for Michael Cheika's men.  The Scarlets emerged as a different team after half time and dominated possession: at one point they had 93% to Leinster's measly 7%.  However I can't see how the Scarlets will be able to turn their fortunes around in a week to enable them to successfully front up to Leinster at a pulsating RDS, especially as Cheika's men will have been working hard to eliminate the more negative aspects of their second half performance from last weekend.

My prediction:  Leinster by 16.


So what do you think?  Am I way off again or am I closer to the mark this time?  Please let me know your views!

Leeds Carnegie vs Harlequins: Preview

What is it about the doom and gloom merchants?  I've barely had time to open the first few doors on my Thomas the Tank Engine advent calendar and already they're casting their eyes towards the final fixture of the season when Leeds take on Bath at the Rec.  This game is already being touted as the game that might decide the relegation battle, but seriously, we aren't even half way through the season yet and there is plenty more rugby to play.

I know Bath are perilously close to the bottom of the table, but if Leeds can pull off a victory against Quins tomorrow night at a chilly Headingley Carnegie they stand a chance of leapfrogging the Baarth Boys into 11th place.  Why do I bring this up?  It's because I think Leeds are going to kick start the rest of their season and beat Quins tomorrow, whilst Bath are going to lose to away at Northampton - that's why, and that's why one fixture at the end of season does not a season make.

Leeds coach Neil Back doesn't appear to be stressing out about Leeds' current home at the foot of the table.  If anything he is positively realistic:

"Our objective this year is to finish 11th or above and if we can continue to take steps forward that will give us a boost going into the next two European games. [After Harlequins] we then face two big games back in the Premiership, up at Newcastle and at home against Bath over the Christmas and New Year period. We have now got five massive games that can determine the pathway that we take this season, starting on Friday."

OK, so he does admit that Leeds have to start winning games, but I think they are about to turn that corner and will hopefully do so tomorrow night.

Leeds will undoubtedly have been disappointed in the way they let a 17-3 lead slip through their fingers at home to Sale a couple weeks ago, and their frustration will have been compounded at Welford Road last Saturday when a 6-6 hard fought half time score developed into a 39-6 final score line.

Neil Back remains positive

Speaking of the defeat at the hands of his old club, Back said:
"We gave the ball up cheaply at times and we knew that that could come back to hurt us in the second half and that was case.  We will learn from that experience though."


And that is why Harlequins should be nervous.  After an away win at Wasps, what should have been an away win against Saracens (had it not been for an incorrectly disallowed try), and excellent first half performances against Sale and Leicester, Leeds are almost there and they will be desperate to nail down their first home win of the season.  Of course, a game of rugby lasts 80 minutes and not 40 so Leeds have to maintain their focus and discipline tomorrow night.

The bad news for Leeds is that they will face a Harlequins side who will arrive at Headingley fresh from a 35-29 victory over Gloucester last week.  In that game ex-Leeds boy Danny Care and Kiwi Nick Evans (who would undoubtedly have won more than his 23 international caps if it hadn't been for the arrival of a certain Daniel Carter into the All Blacks team) ran riot over Gloucester.  Leeds will really have to nullify the threat of this half back pairing if they want to hold onto the reins of this game.  Luckily for Leeds they have wily Andy Gommersall at their disposal: ex-Quin and one time mentor of Danny Care.  Gommersall will undoubtedly use all his guile and experience to try and teach his protege a thing or two on the pitch, and this will be a fascinating battle to watch.

We miss you Danny

Other bad news for Leeds is the injury problems that have hit the back row.  Arguably Leeds' best player Hendre Fourie (openside flanker) is out with an infected leg (nice), whilst number 8 Alfie To'oala has a damaged leg muscle.  Fly-half Ceiron Thomas is not included in the squad after injuring himself in the warm up before last weekend's game at Leicester, so 19 year old Joe Ford wins his second cap after doing enough last weekend to justify his starting place above Jason Strange.

However, good news for Leeds is that Argentina prop Juan Gomez returns to add some muscle to the scrum, and that Ugo Monye is ill (no offence Ugo).  This means that Tom "Bloodgate" Williams will take to the wing along with David Strettle.  I'm sure there won't be any squirting of tomato sauce or offensive chanting about the fake blood fiasco as we're a nice lot up here in Leeds - well, at least I think we are!  We really need to concentrate on the rugby and everyone needs to put all that rubbish behind us.

In conclusion, after watching Leeds over the course of the season I think they are ready and poised to shift up a gear and clinch their first home game of the season.  Everyone and his wife knows about the events which unfolded at the Stoop this summer, and whilst Quins started off the season in a shaky manner, they too are starting to pull together convincing winning performances.  Please excuse the pun but I expect this game to be full of bang and an early Christmas cracker.

My prediction:  Leeds to win by 3.

Not So Cocky: Leicester Tigers vs Leeds Carnegie Preview

When Leeds Carnegie roll into Welford Road this Saturday for their next installment of the Guinness Premiership, they will have to strain their ears in order to hear the distant crowing of the suspended Richard Cockerill.  With his place firmly reserved on the naughty step, it's nice of Cockers to step aside and herald the return of the Leicester old guard and watch Neil Back and Andy Key lead the much improved Leeds Carnegie side onto the turf of the Champions.

His lips are sealed

Of course it's not just Back and Key who used to haunt the locker room at Welford Road.  This Saturday's game is a trip down memory lane for three members of the Leeds squad, at least two of which are likely to start against their old club.  Leeds captain Marco Wentzl completed a recce of the new look Welford Road a couple of weeks ago when he moonlighted as a pundit and watched Leicester topple a lacklustre South Africa, and I'm sure the returning Wentzl, Rabeni and Moreno will all raise their game if they are selected to run out in front of the impressive new Caterpillar Stand.

Whisperings on the Leicester Tigers message board have hinted that this weekend's game might well see the return of hulking man mountain Alesana Tuilagi.  If that's the case then I fully expect to see a powerful running game from the Tigers with Seru Rabeni doing his best to neutralise the epic Samoan.  The return of Tuilagi really is something Leeds could do without.  Add Leicester's returning England stars into the mix along with a fit Toby Flood and it seems that the Tigers lying in wait to maul Leeds this weekend are a much more formidable challenge than the team of cubs that Leeds tamed at Headingley in the LV= Cup second round.

Gulp

However don't write Leeds Carnegie off just yet.  Historically Leeds have always been a bit of a bogey team for Leicester, and with a bit of the old Leicester magic, drive and belief instilled by Neil Back, Leeds might well have a few surprises up their sleeve.  OK so Leeds started the season slowly, but their recent form in the Guinness Premiership speaks for itself.  Last weekend they should have beaten Sale after playing some incisive rugby, but Leeds faded after half time and allowed Charlie Hodgson to get a grip on the game.  (I'm sure that's something Backy will have stamped out this week).  Had it not been for an incorrectly disallowed try Leeds would have beaten Saracens at Vicarage Road, however they took the momentum from that close encounter down to Adams Park where they ground out a well deserved victory against Wasps.  Welford Road might be an intimidating place to go, but as Marco Wentzl said: "We will go there with confidence."

So what are the key battles this weekend?  Personally I hope for an epic encounter between the two openside flankers, provided that Lewis Moody and Hendre Fourie both start.  Moody is considered by many as the one shining beacon of hope for England in a dismal series of November tests, whilst the highly rated Fourie is arguably Leeds's best player and was named Player of the Year last season.  The battle of the tens will also be one to watch, with Leeds's Ceiron Thomas growing into a solid number ten who isn't afraid to throw himself around the park.  It will be interesting to see how he matches up against the flair of Toby Flood.

Who will win the battle of the openside?

I'm not going to venture a prediction as I'd much prefer to perch uncomfortably on the fence and pull the splinters out of my arse.  However, I don't think Leeds are going to be the walkover that everyone might have expected at the start of the season.