Six Nations Week 5: Previews and Predictions

Wales v Italy

Wales haven't been firing in this tournament and their line out and scrum have been less than effective.  However the return of scrum-half Mike Phillips and loosehead Gethin Jenkins is a boon for coach Warren Gatland, and 18-year old Tom Prydie becomes both the youngest man to play for Wales and the youngest ever to play in the Six Nations when he starts on the wing.  Whoever loses this match will be vying for the wooden spoon with Scotland, and the losers will take home the booby prize if Scotland overturn the Irish in the final game to be played at Croke Park. 

Italy have been hit by three injuries: Centre Andrea Masi, lock Carlo Del Fava and flanker Paul Derbyshire are all out.  Despite Italy's win against Scotland and rallying last 15 minutes against France, Nick Mallet's men won't have enough to get past Wales at a pulsating Millennium Stadium.

My prediction:  Wales by 18.


Ireland v Scotland

Declan Kidney and his Ireland team only have an outside chance of winning the championship, and that relies on England tripping up their rivals France later on in Paris.  But the Triple Crown is there for the taking, and if Ireland beat Andy Robinson's Scotland they will notch up their fifth home nations clean sweep in seven years.

The Scots are propping up the table with a solitary point, courtesy of their tedious draw against England last weekend.  With Ireland gunning for the prize to crown their final match at Croke Park and Scotland's try-scoring drought, I can only see this game going one way.

My prediction:  Ireland by 12.


France v England

A revamped England will run out in Paris in the tournament finale, but I think favourites France will pack too much of a punch for the visitors.  Ben Foden and Chris Ashton, team mates at Northampton, will hopefully inject some pace and cutting edge into the England backline.  We know their link-up play is in fine form after watching them in the Guinness Premiership and Heineken Cup this season.  Lewis Moody returns from a brief stint on the bench, and he will lead out England in the absence of Steve Borthwick.  Mike Tindall starts in the centre, probably to try and contain the rampaging Mathieu Bastereaud. 

France are oozing class in every position at the moment.  Morgan Parra, Imanol Harinordoquy and Clement Poitreneaud are but three of their top class players in a team dripping with talent.  The French have been firing this Six Nations, and they will be too much for Martin Johnson's stuttering England team.

My prediction:  France to win by 16.

Six Nations Week 2: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

The Good:

The Wales v Scotland game.  An incredible last five minutes in a match with more twists than one of Adam Jones' bouncing ringlets.

Adam Jones: curly wurly

Dan Parks: back from the wilderness (or Glasgow in his case).

Shane Williams.  The man who turned the match for Wales.  He showed great skill to put Lee Byrne in for a try, calmly caught a tricky high ball under pressure when Scotland were dominating, and he bagged the winning score to boot.

An excellent all round game for France.  Well, with the exception of their line-out.  A great game for France's Mathieu Bastereuad, Yannick Jauzion and Morgan Parra to name but three.

Italy, who matched England and made a real game of it.  Six Nations whipping boys they are not.  A special mention to Italy number eight and man of the match Alessandro Mani.  Who needs Sergio Parisse?  Luke McClean also had a good game at full-back for the Azzurri.

Jonny Wilkinson, who passed the 500 point mark in the Six Nations competition, and used his experience to stretch England's lead near to the death.

The Bad:

Scotland commiting rugby hari kari against Wales in the last 10 minutes.  Two sin binnings for the Scots and 17 points to Wales.  Does that remind you of anyone, Alun Wyn Jones?  Then again, Scotland's loss was due in great part to...

Referee George Clancy, who allowed an extra passage of play in the Wales v Scotland game even though the clock had already reached 80 minutes.  With the teams tied on 24-24, Shane Williams scorched over the try line for Wales.  If it were a game of football, Wales would be Manchester United.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson:  mildly irritated.

Ireland's performance against France - or lack of it.  Last week Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team as "mediocre" in their 29-11 win over Italy.  This weekend in defeat, he downgraded that to "poor".  Personally, I'd have gone for "abysmal".

Yannick Jauzion crosses the line for France

France's faultering lineout.  The only negative in their 33-10 victory over Ireland.

England kicking the ball away aimlessly at almost every opportunity.  Martin Johnson's men looked about as threatening as a bunch of bumbling marshmallows during large parts of the game against Italy.  Oh and how England totally failed to ram home their advantage when Castro was in the bin completely mystified me.  Another very disappointing England performance.  There's plenty for them to work on.  Again.

Dylan Hartley's line-out throwing.  Very poor.  I found myself being thankful when Steve Thompson stomped onto the pitch.  Yes, it was that bad.

The Ugly:

Scotland's Thom Evans being stretchered off the pitch and subsequently undergoing neck surgery.  Get well soon Thom.

Jerry Flannery's impromptu 'can-can' kick on Alexis Pallison. France scrum-half Morgan Parra is no doubt thrilled that Flannery backed him up after Parra claimed Ireland "cheat every weekend".

Six Nations Previews and Predictions - Week 2

It's Six Nations Predictions time again.

Will Ireland's recent love affair with the Six Nations continue to flourish in Paris this Valentine's weekend?  Will Scotland lose their hearts in Wales, or will England's red roses woo the Italian crowds? 

Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend:

France v Ireland
This game is already being tipped as the championship decider.  The result of this match will crush the Grand Slam hopes of one of this year's main protagonists, and it's a real shame this fixture isn't being saved until the final weekend. 

France won their opening game against Scotland 18-9, with human wrecking ball Mathieu Bastereaud twice bulldozing his way over the line.  Ireland looked rusty against an Italy side lacking in precision which also boasts arguably the most turgid backline in international rugby.  Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team's performance as "mediocre" despite their 29-11 victory.  France's scrum destroyed Scotland, although the return of Stephen Ferris into the Ireland pack is welcome to Ireland's perceived area of weakness.  France are without Aurelien Rougerie and Benjamin Fall who miss the clash through injury so Toulouse's Vincent Clerc and Brive's Alexis Palisson take their places.  O'Gara retains the number ten shirt for Ireland, and Keith Earls makes his first Six Nations start. 

Ireland last won in Paris ten years ago in 2000, when Brian O'Driscoll's brilliant hat-trick helped his team to a 27-25 victory.  Last year, Ireland beat France 30-21 at Croke Park.  This is undoubtedly the game of the weekend, if not the tournament.  It's a tough one to call.  My heart says Ireland but my head says France.  I know it's Valentine's weekend, but my head is overruling my heart on this one.

My prediction:  France to win by 8.

Wales v Scotland
Wales clawed England back to 20-17 in the last few minutes of their battle at Twickenham last Saturday, after Alun Wyn Jones' thoughtless trip cost the men in red 17 points during his stint in the sin bin.  Despite Wales seizing the momentum in the second half England were 30-17 victors.  Wyn Jones will play this weekend after Wales coach Warren Gatland threatened to drop the lock, and the only two changes in the Wales side see Leigh Halfpenny and Jonathan Thomas come in for Tom James and Luke Charteris.  Wales are still missing Lions front row maestros Gethin Jenkins and Matthew Rees which is a blow, especially after Scotland's scrum crumbled against France last week.  Wales need to reduce their error count and not let Scotland off the hook as they did with a series of missed penalty kicks against England.  Oh, and that infamous sin-binning.  I hope to see more from Jamie Roberts and the wonderful James Hook this week.

Scotland welcome back prop Euan Murray to bolster their scrum, and fly-half Dan Parks and Rory Lamont also return.  Godman had a pretty God awful game last weekend and is replaced by Parks who has enjoyed a good season so far with Glasgow. Super sidestepping king Max Evans is also dropped, as is Moray Low.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson has added extra spice to the encounter by preventing Wales from closing the Millennium Stadium roof for the match.  It's all within the rules of course, and I don't blame Robinson for stopping Wales from getting any sort of extra advantage.  To get anything from this game the brothers Sean and Rory Lamont need to put to away their chances against the Welsh.  There were positives from the France game as Scotland did break the line, but then the attacks fizzled out and Scotland came away empty handed.

This is a must win match for both sides.  With home advantage on their side, I'm going for Wales.

My prediction:  Wales to win by 12.
   
Italy v England
Serial wooden spoon winners Italy host a revitalised England on Valentine's Day.  If rugby be the food of love, play on.  Or something like that.  Martin Johnson has made two changes to his starting XV with Dan Cole getting the nod ahead of David Wilson, and a fit again Riki Flutey pushing Toby Flood to the bench.  The replacements haven't been named yet (at the time of writing), and both Steve Borthwick and Simon Shaw have been struck with illness.  Is that Courtney Lawes I see hovering near the starting XV?  Don't be daft, it's Louis Deacon.  Lawes was originally sent back to Northampton but was then recalled, and he will now stay with the England squad.  Shontayne Hape has also been doing the rugby hokey cokey - in, out, in, out - and might yet get to shake it all about with an appearance from the bench.

Italy are without injured lock Carlo Del Fava and scrum-half Simon Picone.  Sergio Parisse is out for the entire competition due to a knee ligament injury.  Italy coach Nick Mallet will confirm his team to face England on Friday 12th, but I expect to see pretty much the same starting line up as last weekend, injuries aside.  Craig "Controversy" Gower was pretty anonymous in Italy's 29-11 defeat to Ireland, and the entire Italian backline was so ineffective England really should stamp their authority on this game.

My prediction:  England to win by 25 points.

So what do you think?  Are my predictions right this week or am I wearing my rose-tinted spectacles?

Six Nations Top Trumps: France

“Our team is very fit, but the Top 14 schedule is very punishing and we do not get a lot of time with the players. It’s tough, but we’re in good shape," said France coach Marc Lievremont.

Looks like he spoke too soon.  Lock Sebastien Chabal misses France's opening game against Scotland with a back injury and France will also be without injured centre/wing Damien Traille and prop Fabien Barcella.  Lievremont has made a few changes to his squad since November, with talented scrum-half and kicker Jean-Baptiste Elissalde replacing the banned Julien Dupuy.  Centre Mathieu Bastareaud returns after being dropped for the November tests and utility back Fabrice Estebanez also joins the squad.  There are a few shock omissions as once again Lievremont keeps everyone guessing.  Fly-half Frederic Michalak, full-back Maxime Medard, wing Cedric Heymans, and Stade Francais fly-half Lionel Beauxis, have all been left out.

In 2009's competition, France finished third behind Grand Slam champions Ireland and their auld enemy England.  France will be looking to build on their impressive 20-13 win over South Africa in November and forget about the 39-12 defeat against New Zealand.  With home games against their biggest rivals, Ireland and England, this could be France's year.

So how will they fare?

Scrum: 79/100.
Barcella's injury is a blow to France as he turned in strong performances against South Africa and New Zealand in the autumn.  The French back row is impressive though, with Dusautoir, Picamoles and Harinordoquy.  Chabal will miss the first game, but on the whole the scrum is an area of strength for France.

Line-Out: 68/100.
The second row looks a bit iffy for France, especially if Chabal misses more than the opener with his back trouble.

Attacking Flair: 88/100.
With Heymans and Medard left out in the cold, a certain amount of French flair has gone out the door with them.  However, Harinordoquy is an agile forward who scores tries and Rougerie's form has been good this season.  Poitrenaud and Clerc are both brilliant attacking players as is Malzieu.  France do seem to have a weakness at fly-half which might dampen the Gallic flair, but this is a team of flamboyant risk takers, which is exactly what I want to see from France.

Defence: 55/100.
Pah!  It's all about attack!

Stadium: 85/100.
Stade de France.  Capacity 80,000.

Snore Factor: 8/100.
Very low.  France are risk takers who play flamboyant, running rugby.  Dull is not the word.

Phwoargh Factor: 78/100.
Dieux Du Stade, anyone?

Scandal Potential: 76/100.
High.  I don't like to raise the subject again, but there's always the chance of a backlash over Gouge-gate.

As for the final standings:

Last season: 3rd.
Prediction for this season: 2nd.