Six Nations Week 5: Previews and Predictions

Wales v Italy

Wales haven't been firing in this tournament and their line out and scrum have been less than effective.  However the return of scrum-half Mike Phillips and loosehead Gethin Jenkins is a boon for coach Warren Gatland, and 18-year old Tom Prydie becomes both the youngest man to play for Wales and the youngest ever to play in the Six Nations when he starts on the wing.  Whoever loses this match will be vying for the wooden spoon with Scotland, and the losers will take home the booby prize if Scotland overturn the Irish in the final game to be played at Croke Park. 

Italy have been hit by three injuries: Centre Andrea Masi, lock Carlo Del Fava and flanker Paul Derbyshire are all out.  Despite Italy's win against Scotland and rallying last 15 minutes against France, Nick Mallet's men won't have enough to get past Wales at a pulsating Millennium Stadium.

My prediction:  Wales by 18.


Ireland v Scotland

Declan Kidney and his Ireland team only have an outside chance of winning the championship, and that relies on England tripping up their rivals France later on in Paris.  But the Triple Crown is there for the taking, and if Ireland beat Andy Robinson's Scotland they will notch up their fifth home nations clean sweep in seven years.

The Scots are propping up the table with a solitary point, courtesy of their tedious draw against England last weekend.  With Ireland gunning for the prize to crown their final match at Croke Park and Scotland's try-scoring drought, I can only see this game going one way.

My prediction:  Ireland by 12.


France v England

A revamped England will run out in Paris in the tournament finale, but I think favourites France will pack too much of a punch for the visitors.  Ben Foden and Chris Ashton, team mates at Northampton, will hopefully inject some pace and cutting edge into the England backline.  We know their link-up play is in fine form after watching them in the Guinness Premiership and Heineken Cup this season.  Lewis Moody returns from a brief stint on the bench, and he will lead out England in the absence of Steve Borthwick.  Mike Tindall starts in the centre, probably to try and contain the rampaging Mathieu Bastereaud. 

France are oozing class in every position at the moment.  Morgan Parra, Imanol Harinordoquy and Clement Poitreneaud are but three of their top class players in a team dripping with talent.  The French have been firing this Six Nations, and they will be too much for Martin Johnson's stuttering England team.

My prediction:  France to win by 16.

Six Nations Week 2: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

The Good:

The Wales v Scotland game.  An incredible last five minutes in a match with more twists than one of Adam Jones' bouncing ringlets.

Adam Jones: curly wurly

Dan Parks: back from the wilderness (or Glasgow in his case).

Shane Williams.  The man who turned the match for Wales.  He showed great skill to put Lee Byrne in for a try, calmly caught a tricky high ball under pressure when Scotland were dominating, and he bagged the winning score to boot.

An excellent all round game for France.  Well, with the exception of their line-out.  A great game for France's Mathieu Bastereuad, Yannick Jauzion and Morgan Parra to name but three.

Italy, who matched England and made a real game of it.  Six Nations whipping boys they are not.  A special mention to Italy number eight and man of the match Alessandro Mani.  Who needs Sergio Parisse?  Luke McClean also had a good game at full-back for the Azzurri.

Jonny Wilkinson, who passed the 500 point mark in the Six Nations competition, and used his experience to stretch England's lead near to the death.

The Bad:

Scotland commiting rugby hari kari against Wales in the last 10 minutes.  Two sin binnings for the Scots and 17 points to Wales.  Does that remind you of anyone, Alun Wyn Jones?  Then again, Scotland's loss was due in great part to...

Referee George Clancy, who allowed an extra passage of play in the Wales v Scotland game even though the clock had already reached 80 minutes.  With the teams tied on 24-24, Shane Williams scorched over the try line for Wales.  If it were a game of football, Wales would be Manchester United.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson:  mildly irritated.

Ireland's performance against France - or lack of it.  Last week Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team as "mediocre" in their 29-11 win over Italy.  This weekend in defeat, he downgraded that to "poor".  Personally, I'd have gone for "abysmal".

Yannick Jauzion crosses the line for France

France's faultering lineout.  The only negative in their 33-10 victory over Ireland.

England kicking the ball away aimlessly at almost every opportunity.  Martin Johnson's men looked about as threatening as a bunch of bumbling marshmallows during large parts of the game against Italy.  Oh and how England totally failed to ram home their advantage when Castro was in the bin completely mystified me.  Another very disappointing England performance.  There's plenty for them to work on.  Again.

Dylan Hartley's line-out throwing.  Very poor.  I found myself being thankful when Steve Thompson stomped onto the pitch.  Yes, it was that bad.

The Ugly:

Scotland's Thom Evans being stretchered off the pitch and subsequently undergoing neck surgery.  Get well soon Thom.

Jerry Flannery's impromptu 'can-can' kick on Alexis Pallison. France scrum-half Morgan Parra is no doubt thrilled that Flannery backed him up after Parra claimed Ireland "cheat every weekend".

Six Nations Previews and Predictions - Week 2

It's Six Nations Predictions time again.

Will Ireland's recent love affair with the Six Nations continue to flourish in Paris this Valentine's weekend?  Will Scotland lose their hearts in Wales, or will England's red roses woo the Italian crowds? 

Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend:

France v Ireland
This game is already being tipped as the championship decider.  The result of this match will crush the Grand Slam hopes of one of this year's main protagonists, and it's a real shame this fixture isn't being saved until the final weekend. 

France won their opening game against Scotland 18-9, with human wrecking ball Mathieu Bastereaud twice bulldozing his way over the line.  Ireland looked rusty against an Italy side lacking in precision which also boasts arguably the most turgid backline in international rugby.  Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team's performance as "mediocre" despite their 29-11 victory.  France's scrum destroyed Scotland, although the return of Stephen Ferris into the Ireland pack is welcome to Ireland's perceived area of weakness.  France are without Aurelien Rougerie and Benjamin Fall who miss the clash through injury so Toulouse's Vincent Clerc and Brive's Alexis Palisson take their places.  O'Gara retains the number ten shirt for Ireland, and Keith Earls makes his first Six Nations start. 

Ireland last won in Paris ten years ago in 2000, when Brian O'Driscoll's brilliant hat-trick helped his team to a 27-25 victory.  Last year, Ireland beat France 30-21 at Croke Park.  This is undoubtedly the game of the weekend, if not the tournament.  It's a tough one to call.  My heart says Ireland but my head says France.  I know it's Valentine's weekend, but my head is overruling my heart on this one.

My prediction:  France to win by 8.

Wales v Scotland
Wales clawed England back to 20-17 in the last few minutes of their battle at Twickenham last Saturday, after Alun Wyn Jones' thoughtless trip cost the men in red 17 points during his stint in the sin bin.  Despite Wales seizing the momentum in the second half England were 30-17 victors.  Wyn Jones will play this weekend after Wales coach Warren Gatland threatened to drop the lock, and the only two changes in the Wales side see Leigh Halfpenny and Jonathan Thomas come in for Tom James and Luke Charteris.  Wales are still missing Lions front row maestros Gethin Jenkins and Matthew Rees which is a blow, especially after Scotland's scrum crumbled against France last week.  Wales need to reduce their error count and not let Scotland off the hook as they did with a series of missed penalty kicks against England.  Oh, and that infamous sin-binning.  I hope to see more from Jamie Roberts and the wonderful James Hook this week.

Scotland welcome back prop Euan Murray to bolster their scrum, and fly-half Dan Parks and Rory Lamont also return.  Godman had a pretty God awful game last weekend and is replaced by Parks who has enjoyed a good season so far with Glasgow. Super sidestepping king Max Evans is also dropped, as is Moray Low.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson has added extra spice to the encounter by preventing Wales from closing the Millennium Stadium roof for the match.  It's all within the rules of course, and I don't blame Robinson for stopping Wales from getting any sort of extra advantage.  To get anything from this game the brothers Sean and Rory Lamont need to put to away their chances against the Welsh.  There were positives from the France game as Scotland did break the line, but then the attacks fizzled out and Scotland came away empty handed.

This is a must win match for both sides.  With home advantage on their side, I'm going for Wales.

My prediction:  Wales to win by 12.
   
Italy v England
Serial wooden spoon winners Italy host a revitalised England on Valentine's Day.  If rugby be the food of love, play on.  Or something like that.  Martin Johnson has made two changes to his starting XV with Dan Cole getting the nod ahead of David Wilson, and a fit again Riki Flutey pushing Toby Flood to the bench.  The replacements haven't been named yet (at the time of writing), and both Steve Borthwick and Simon Shaw have been struck with illness.  Is that Courtney Lawes I see hovering near the starting XV?  Don't be daft, it's Louis Deacon.  Lawes was originally sent back to Northampton but was then recalled, and he will now stay with the England squad.  Shontayne Hape has also been doing the rugby hokey cokey - in, out, in, out - and might yet get to shake it all about with an appearance from the bench.

Italy are without injured lock Carlo Del Fava and scrum-half Simon Picone.  Sergio Parisse is out for the entire competition due to a knee ligament injury.  Italy coach Nick Mallet will confirm his team to face England on Friday 12th, but I expect to see pretty much the same starting line up as last weekend, injuries aside.  Craig "Controversy" Gower was pretty anonymous in Italy's 29-11 defeat to Ireland, and the entire Italian backline was so ineffective England really should stamp their authority on this game.

My prediction:  England to win by 25 points.

So what do you think?  Are my predictions right this week or am I wearing my rose-tinted spectacles?

Six Nations Top Trumps: Wales

"We need to get off to a good start. If you don’t get off to a winning start, there is that added pressure and you’re always chasing.”

I couldn't agree with you more, Warren Gatland. 

Beware Martin Johnson's England on 6 February when Wales arrive at Twickenham.  Wales' coach Gatland is certainly talking the talk.  Gatland has focused on the inexperience of the England scrum as a weakness that will be targeted by his British and Irish Lions filled pack.  But will Wales fire in 2010?  In last year's tournament they slipped to a disappointing 4th place after clinching the Grand Slam in 2008, and losses to Australia and South Africa at Cardiff in November wasn't the ideal preparation.  Wales have two tough games away from home: at Twickenham on the opening weekend and then across the Irish sea at Croke Park.  With key players sidelined due to injury and with pundits questioning Wales' mental toughness, the pressure to perform is on. 

Here are their ratings:

Scrum: 85/100.
Wales have an excellent tight 5 including an all Lions front row in Adam Jones, Matthew Rees and Gethin Jenkins.  Alun Wynn Jones and either Ian Gough or Luke Charteris will add power in the boiler room.  Wales' opening game is against England at Twickenham, who with the absence of Sheridan and Vickery, are likely to field an internationally inexperienced front row.  Games are won and lost based on what happens up front, and the scrum is where Wales will look to dominate.  And I think they will.

Line-Out: 70/100.
With Alun Wynn Jones, Gough/Charteris and Ryan Jones as the jumpers, and Matthew Rees as the hooker, this is another set piece where Wales should excel.

Attacking Flair:  71/100.
Shane Williams is fit and will play on the wing, as will fellow Lion Leigh Halfpenny.  It's a shame that scrum-halves Mike Phillips and Dwayne Peel both miss the competition due to injury, as both are classy playmakers who snipe around the fringes of the scrum.  Richie Rees has been in fine form for the Cardiff Blues at this position though and is one to watch.  World class full back Lee Byrne will play against England after having his ban for being the Ospreys' 16th man in the Heineken Sup game against Leicester overturned.  Stephen Jones might not be a flamboyant fly-half but his magic point scoring boot more than makes up it.  And then there's Lion and Baa-Baa, Jamie Roberts, who is yet another world class player in the Wales team.  All in all, there is attacking flair oozing from this team, but can they string it together?

Defence:  45/100.
Wales' defence was well and truly dismantled in the 33-12 defeat by Australia in November.  The Wallabies ran in four tries which almost made Wales' defence coach, Shaun Edwards, implode with anger.  With such an array of attacking backs, Wales will have to tighten up on their defence to avoid leaving gaping holes on the counter attack.

Stadium: 73/100.
Millennium Stadium.  Capacity 74,500.

Snore Factor: 35/100.
It all depends if the Wales squad of 2010 will emulate their inconsistent performances of last year or their Grand Slam campaign of 2008.  I think it's likely to be somewhere in between based on their opposition, with flashes of brilliance balanced with a certain lack of incision.

Phwoargh Factor: 55/100
Lee "Tango Tan" Byrne, James "I'll play anywhere" Hook and Jonathan "No, not the pundit" Davies are the main attractions in this category.  Mike Phillips is a big loss in this department, and some might argue that the lesser spotted Gavin Henson will be missed.  On the whole it's slim pickings though, unless you like big hair that is.  If that's the case, then Adam Jones is the man for you.

Scandal Potential: 34/100.
Medium.  Nothing too controversial, but I'd suggest that Wales' opposition keep taking a quick headcount during the game, just to make sure that Lee Byrne hasn't sneaked on from the sidelines.

As for the final standings:
Last season: 4th.
Prediction for this season: 4th.

Good Times / Bad Times

Another week of rugby, another pack of winners and losers...



Good Times...

England Women
Catherine Spencer's England beat the New Zealand Black Ferns for the first time since 2001 at Twickenham last Saturday and therefore drew the two match series.  Brilliant for everyone involved and great preparation for the 2010 World Cup - oh, and they did much better than their male counterparts.

On top at Twickenham

Scotland's defence
Scotland 9 - 8 Australia, a result which ended Scotland's 27 year losing streak against the Green and Golds.  Scotland's commitment in defence (along with a bit of luck and help from the weather) secured them the win.  Congratulations to the Jocks - you managed a humiliation much greater than the one Ireland dished out a week earlier and a victory that the ramshackle England team can only dream of.

Jonny Sexton
A man of the match performance for Ronan O'Gara's main competition against Fiji with 100% kicking success. 
News just in:  Sexton has been picked to start at number 10 against South Africa on Saturday with O'Gara relegated to the bench.  Congratulations Jonny, well deserved.

10 out of 10

Dan Carter
Off colour against England but Dan deserves a mention as he kicked his way into the record books by overtaking Andrew Mehrtons as New Zealand's top points scorer of all time.  And he's my favourite.

Lewis Moody
The only real shining light in a depressing trio of games for England.  Step aside Steve Borthwick - is the passionate yet eloquent 'Mad Dog' a future England captain?

Woof

Wales
A loss against New Zealand, a slightly unconvincing win against Samoa but three tries scored against Argentina in their 33-16 victory.  Wales face Australia on Saturday and no doubt hope to pick up where Scotland left off.  It seems they are warming up nicely for the 6 nations


Bad Times...

England's Men
What have we learned at the conclusion of England's November tests?  Not much, except that our second string team isn't particularly great.  Strange selections meant that the opportunities to test drive young talent (Lawes and a 'livid' Foden) were missed, and I fear that that next year's November tests will be too late for experimentation with the 2011 World Cup just around the corner.

Matt Giteau
The big miss of the week.  Congratulations again to Scotland.

Oops.

John Smit
Is the South Africa captain showing weaknesses at number 1?  Is he still the feared prop after the Boks' scrum suffered against Italy?  Has he slipped back to number 2 and will he start at hooker against Ireland?

Leeds Carnegie
Finally, my beloved Leeds let a 17-3 lead slip against Sale on Sunday.  A win would have lifted them from the bottom of the Guinness Premiership table but alas is wasn't to be.  Boo.

Mystic Warren

Why has the year 2009 seen level headed sportsmen turning to Glenn Hoddle for inspiration? Where did the craze of spending time polishing crystal balls and titting about with tea leaves come from? And why is Wales coach Warren Gatland whipping on his mystical Wizard’s cloak and crapping on about auras?

Yes, ahead of the Wales vs New Zealand clash at the Millenium Stadium this Saturday, Warren Gatland has decided to announce that the All Blacks’ aura has slipped:

"If you lose a few games, it doesn't matter who you are, you become a little bit infallible and that aura just goes away."

I’m sure the New Zealand team are bricking it in light of your comments Warren, and that they’re on the hotline to Mystic Meg as I type.

Nice aura Gats

OK, so Gatland does delight the world with his random views on life on a regular basis, but in the world of sporting smack talk I didn’t think I’d see him taking a leaf out of England cricket captain Andrew Strauss’ book and start harping on about auras. All very spiritual and touchy-feely, and something that will undoubtedly rise from the dead like a reincarnated three-headed dog and bite him on his arse after this weekend.

Pride (or should that by mysticism?) often comes before a fall. Do you remember Andrew Strauss’ comments before the third Ashes Test this summer?:

"I don't think this Australia side has an aura about them… An aura only comes with a consistent level of performance over a long period of time. Australia had that but I don't feel that's where they are now, and that's encouraging. It doesn't mean you're more likely to beat them but it does feel like you are playing against any other Test team."

The England cricket team were lucky, as after Strauss’ new age babble about auras they stumbled and drew the third test at Edgbaston before they were ritually humiliated in the fourth test at Headingley. Happily, team England managed to save Strauss’ blushes by winning the decisive test at The Oval. I wonder what colour his aura was at the start of that test match? Probably brown as he was sh*tting himself.

So is this a case of rainbow coloured-aura Déjà vu as far as Gatland’s Wales is concerned? Is this talk going to motivate his team to a win?

Probably not. Wales are going to be convincingly beaten by New Zealand this weekend and will be made to eat Gatland’s words. Possibly along with an aura or two.

Tuck in boyos.