Six Nations Week 5: Previews and Predictions

Wales v Italy

Wales haven't been firing in this tournament and their line out and scrum have been less than effective.  However the return of scrum-half Mike Phillips and loosehead Gethin Jenkins is a boon for coach Warren Gatland, and 18-year old Tom Prydie becomes both the youngest man to play for Wales and the youngest ever to play in the Six Nations when he starts on the wing.  Whoever loses this match will be vying for the wooden spoon with Scotland, and the losers will take home the booby prize if Scotland overturn the Irish in the final game to be played at Croke Park. 

Italy have been hit by three injuries: Centre Andrea Masi, lock Carlo Del Fava and flanker Paul Derbyshire are all out.  Despite Italy's win against Scotland and rallying last 15 minutes against France, Nick Mallet's men won't have enough to get past Wales at a pulsating Millennium Stadium.

My prediction:  Wales by 18.


Ireland v Scotland

Declan Kidney and his Ireland team only have an outside chance of winning the championship, and that relies on England tripping up their rivals France later on in Paris.  But the Triple Crown is there for the taking, and if Ireland beat Andy Robinson's Scotland they will notch up their fifth home nations clean sweep in seven years.

The Scots are propping up the table with a solitary point, courtesy of their tedious draw against England last weekend.  With Ireland gunning for the prize to crown their final match at Croke Park and Scotland's try-scoring drought, I can only see this game going one way.

My prediction:  Ireland by 12.


France v England

A revamped England will run out in Paris in the tournament finale, but I think favourites France will pack too much of a punch for the visitors.  Ben Foden and Chris Ashton, team mates at Northampton, will hopefully inject some pace and cutting edge into the England backline.  We know their link-up play is in fine form after watching them in the Guinness Premiership and Heineken Cup this season.  Lewis Moody returns from a brief stint on the bench, and he will lead out England in the absence of Steve Borthwick.  Mike Tindall starts in the centre, probably to try and contain the rampaging Mathieu Bastereaud. 

France are oozing class in every position at the moment.  Morgan Parra, Imanol Harinordoquy and Clement Poitreneaud are but three of their top class players in a team dripping with talent.  The French have been firing this Six Nations, and they will be too much for Martin Johnson's stuttering England team.

My prediction:  France to win by 16.

Six Nations Week 2: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

The Good:

The Wales v Scotland game.  An incredible last five minutes in a match with more twists than one of Adam Jones' bouncing ringlets.

Adam Jones: curly wurly

Dan Parks: back from the wilderness (or Glasgow in his case).

Shane Williams.  The man who turned the match for Wales.  He showed great skill to put Lee Byrne in for a try, calmly caught a tricky high ball under pressure when Scotland were dominating, and he bagged the winning score to boot.

An excellent all round game for France.  Well, with the exception of their line-out.  A great game for France's Mathieu Bastereuad, Yannick Jauzion and Morgan Parra to name but three.

Italy, who matched England and made a real game of it.  Six Nations whipping boys they are not.  A special mention to Italy number eight and man of the match Alessandro Mani.  Who needs Sergio Parisse?  Luke McClean also had a good game at full-back for the Azzurri.

Jonny Wilkinson, who passed the 500 point mark in the Six Nations competition, and used his experience to stretch England's lead near to the death.

The Bad:

Scotland commiting rugby hari kari against Wales in the last 10 minutes.  Two sin binnings for the Scots and 17 points to Wales.  Does that remind you of anyone, Alun Wyn Jones?  Then again, Scotland's loss was due in great part to...

Referee George Clancy, who allowed an extra passage of play in the Wales v Scotland game even though the clock had already reached 80 minutes.  With the teams tied on 24-24, Shane Williams scorched over the try line for Wales.  If it were a game of football, Wales would be Manchester United.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson:  mildly irritated.

Ireland's performance against France - or lack of it.  Last week Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team as "mediocre" in their 29-11 win over Italy.  This weekend in defeat, he downgraded that to "poor".  Personally, I'd have gone for "abysmal".

Yannick Jauzion crosses the line for France

France's faultering lineout.  The only negative in their 33-10 victory over Ireland.

England kicking the ball away aimlessly at almost every opportunity.  Martin Johnson's men looked about as threatening as a bunch of bumbling marshmallows during large parts of the game against Italy.  Oh and how England totally failed to ram home their advantage when Castro was in the bin completely mystified me.  Another very disappointing England performance.  There's plenty for them to work on.  Again.

Dylan Hartley's line-out throwing.  Very poor.  I found myself being thankful when Steve Thompson stomped onto the pitch.  Yes, it was that bad.

The Ugly:

Scotland's Thom Evans being stretchered off the pitch and subsequently undergoing neck surgery.  Get well soon Thom.

Jerry Flannery's impromptu 'can-can' kick on Alexis Pallison. France scrum-half Morgan Parra is no doubt thrilled that Flannery backed him up after Parra claimed Ireland "cheat every weekend".

Six Nations Previews and Predictions - Week 2

It's Six Nations Predictions time again.

Will Ireland's recent love affair with the Six Nations continue to flourish in Paris this Valentine's weekend?  Will Scotland lose their hearts in Wales, or will England's red roses woo the Italian crowds? 

Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend:

France v Ireland
This game is already being tipped as the championship decider.  The result of this match will crush the Grand Slam hopes of one of this year's main protagonists, and it's a real shame this fixture isn't being saved until the final weekend. 

France won their opening game against Scotland 18-9, with human wrecking ball Mathieu Bastereaud twice bulldozing his way over the line.  Ireland looked rusty against an Italy side lacking in precision which also boasts arguably the most turgid backline in international rugby.  Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team's performance as "mediocre" despite their 29-11 victory.  France's scrum destroyed Scotland, although the return of Stephen Ferris into the Ireland pack is welcome to Ireland's perceived area of weakness.  France are without Aurelien Rougerie and Benjamin Fall who miss the clash through injury so Toulouse's Vincent Clerc and Brive's Alexis Palisson take their places.  O'Gara retains the number ten shirt for Ireland, and Keith Earls makes his first Six Nations start. 

Ireland last won in Paris ten years ago in 2000, when Brian O'Driscoll's brilliant hat-trick helped his team to a 27-25 victory.  Last year, Ireland beat France 30-21 at Croke Park.  This is undoubtedly the game of the weekend, if not the tournament.  It's a tough one to call.  My heart says Ireland but my head says France.  I know it's Valentine's weekend, but my head is overruling my heart on this one.

My prediction:  France to win by 8.

Wales v Scotland
Wales clawed England back to 20-17 in the last few minutes of their battle at Twickenham last Saturday, after Alun Wyn Jones' thoughtless trip cost the men in red 17 points during his stint in the sin bin.  Despite Wales seizing the momentum in the second half England were 30-17 victors.  Wyn Jones will play this weekend after Wales coach Warren Gatland threatened to drop the lock, and the only two changes in the Wales side see Leigh Halfpenny and Jonathan Thomas come in for Tom James and Luke Charteris.  Wales are still missing Lions front row maestros Gethin Jenkins and Matthew Rees which is a blow, especially after Scotland's scrum crumbled against France last week.  Wales need to reduce their error count and not let Scotland off the hook as they did with a series of missed penalty kicks against England.  Oh, and that infamous sin-binning.  I hope to see more from Jamie Roberts and the wonderful James Hook this week.

Scotland welcome back prop Euan Murray to bolster their scrum, and fly-half Dan Parks and Rory Lamont also return.  Godman had a pretty God awful game last weekend and is replaced by Parks who has enjoyed a good season so far with Glasgow. Super sidestepping king Max Evans is also dropped, as is Moray Low.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson has added extra spice to the encounter by preventing Wales from closing the Millennium Stadium roof for the match.  It's all within the rules of course, and I don't blame Robinson for stopping Wales from getting any sort of extra advantage.  To get anything from this game the brothers Sean and Rory Lamont need to put to away their chances against the Welsh.  There were positives from the France game as Scotland did break the line, but then the attacks fizzled out and Scotland came away empty handed.

This is a must win match for both sides.  With home advantage on their side, I'm going for Wales.

My prediction:  Wales to win by 12.
   
Italy v England
Serial wooden spoon winners Italy host a revitalised England on Valentine's Day.  If rugby be the food of love, play on.  Or something like that.  Martin Johnson has made two changes to his starting XV with Dan Cole getting the nod ahead of David Wilson, and a fit again Riki Flutey pushing Toby Flood to the bench.  The replacements haven't been named yet (at the time of writing), and both Steve Borthwick and Simon Shaw have been struck with illness.  Is that Courtney Lawes I see hovering near the starting XV?  Don't be daft, it's Louis Deacon.  Lawes was originally sent back to Northampton but was then recalled, and he will now stay with the England squad.  Shontayne Hape has also been doing the rugby hokey cokey - in, out, in, out - and might yet get to shake it all about with an appearance from the bench.

Italy are without injured lock Carlo Del Fava and scrum-half Simon Picone.  Sergio Parisse is out for the entire competition due to a knee ligament injury.  Italy coach Nick Mallet will confirm his team to face England on Friday 12th, but I expect to see pretty much the same starting line up as last weekend, injuries aside.  Craig "Controversy" Gower was pretty anonymous in Italy's 29-11 defeat to Ireland, and the entire Italian backline was so ineffective England really should stamp their authority on this game.

My prediction:  England to win by 25 points.

So what do you think?  Are my predictions right this week or am I wearing my rose-tinted spectacles?

Six Nations Top Trumps: England

"This is the best squad we have had in my time being in charge," Martin Johnson stated this week.

Yes I think you're probably right Johnno. 

Johnson has come in for a lot of stick recently (including from myself), but with players like Toby Flood, Delon Armitage and Riki Flutey back from injury and the addition of young guns Ben Foden, Courtney Lawes, Dan Cole and Matt Mullen into the squad, there is plenty to placate those who sneered after England's 'performances' in the November tests.  Still, it all comes down to how Johnson's bunch of merry men perform on the pitch, and whether they will continue to play a rather lacklustre game of rugby by numbers or if they are allowed to go out and play instinctively.  Will Johnson choose the powering blunderbuss of Danny Hipkiss at outside centre or will he go for the flair of Mathew Tait?  Who will be selected in the second row?  Will Johnno actually mix things up after the dismal displays of the autumn?  It might not be possible to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear but I'm pretty sure the reverse is possible if players are coached in a way that prevents them playing their natural game, as was demonstrated very effectively in the games against Australia, Argentina and New Zealand.

In last year's Six Nations, England finished second behind Grand Slam winners Ireland by virtue of a superior points difference over France and Wales, who were both tied with England on six points.  I don't think anyone is tipping England to win the tournament this year as the team doesn't have the settled look of Ireland or the flashes of brilliance displayed by France.  However I think England might well be the dark horse of the competition, as although England should expect great things of MJ and his boys, after the dismal displays last autumn, no one really expects that much.  Write England off at your peril.

Top Trump time:

Scrum: 65/100.
With an injury hit first choice front row (Sheridan out as he recovers from a dislocated shoulder and Vickery nursing his neck injury), Tim Payne (who was taught a serious lesson the other week by Leicester's Dan Cole) returns, and there is also a call up for Cole into the squad.  Worcester's Matt Mullen has been plucked from under Mike Ruddock's nose and is also included, so there is an element of international inexperience in the England front row that may well start against Wales.  Still, we can't have it all, and after calling on Johnno to look to next year's World Cup I can't complain.  Saints captain Dylan Hartley completes the front row and with Borthers wearing the captain's armband and Simon Shaw, James Haskell, Nick Easter and Lewis Moody likely to start, England's pack is a combination of youth and experience. 

Line-Out: 88/100.
Despite critics complaining about Steve Borthwick's lack of dynamism and questioning his leadership, the cold hard stats show that he is one of the most consistent line-out men in the business.  During last year's Six Nations, England lost only one of their 49 line-outs, a feat attributed to the skill and organization of Borthwick.  Wasps and Lions hero Simon Shaw looks likely to join him in the boiler room, and with the solid Louis Deacon and Courtney Lawes on the bench, England are looking strong in this area.  It's just a massive shame that Tom Croft will miss the tournament as his line out skills are also excellent.  This is an area in which England should excel during this year's competition.

Attacking Flair: 45/100.
England have all the right ingredients to cook up a feast of attacking rugby that is brimming with flair.  The question is, how will Martin Johnson use the likes of Riki Flutey, Delon Armitage, Ben Foden and Mathew Tait?  Has the style of rugby that England were seemingly coached into playing last November changed to allow these players to showcase their undoubted talents in this area?  I hope so, but I'm not too sure.

Defence: 59/100.
Defensively, England weren't too bad in the November tests as they only conceded three tries.  However the pressure exerted on them by Australia and New Zealand led to them concede plenty of penalties, and if Dan Carter had put on his kicking boots at Twickenham then the score line would have looked a lot less favourable than the 19-6 New Zealand win shows.  England need to improve all over the pitch in the Six Nations, and if they can do this and keep the penalty count down then I think they will be in a much better state defensively.

Stadium: 89/100.
Twickenham.  Capacity 82,000.

Snore Factor: 86/100.
Potentially very high based on recent performances.  Remember when England were booed off at half time when they played Argentina in November? Snore-tastic.  I'm hoping for a big improvement in the Six Nations, but looking at their current form they've got to score highly in this category.

Phwoargh Factor: 56/100.
Erm.  Well Super Jonny's not the young, fresh-faced player he once was, and Lewis Moody and Steve Borthwick aren't going to win any beauty pageants.  Please don't get me started on Tim Payne.  Then again, I suppose Ben Foden is a bit of a pin up boy, Ugo Monye and Delon Armitage are OK, as is Dylan Hartley.  Sort of.  Oh and don't forget James "The Hask" Haskell who is fresh from modelling for the Dieux Du Stade calendar.  Still, they're all pretty average.

Scandal Potential: 30/100.
Daylight robbery anyone?  That was the cry of the Twickenham crowds last November.  If Martin Johnson's England decide not to don their Adam Ant-style Highwaymen outfits and rob the rugby going public of the price of their ticket, then unless there's another bout of players snorting random drugs or spitting out fake blood then I think England deservedly score a pretty low mark in this category.

As for the final standings:

Last season: 2nd.
Prediction for this season: 3rd.

Captain Fantastic

Lo and behold, Martin Johnson has finally annouced who will captain England for (at least the first game) of the Six Nations.

It's....

(drum roll).

Still Steve Borthwick.

Ah.

Borthers looking quite dynamic for a change

So let me get this straight.  Based on form alone, Borthers would probably only make it onto the England bench behind the masterful Simon Shaw and his apprentice Courtney Lawes.  Hmm.  Call me old fashioned, but surely the captain should be a man who would make the starting fifteen?  Shouldn't the captain's name be the first on the team sheet, as it was in the days of Johnson himself?

Apparently not.

Oh well.  Consistency is a good thing I suppose.  Well, if you want England to be consistently shit that is.  I know that a captain's performance doesn't make or break the entire team, but it's a pretty good place to start.  Maybe being conservative really is the new black...

All this does make me wonder if we will be be treated to more of the same ineffective rugby from England in the Six Nations.  Hopefully not.  I mean, a flying pig might land on MJ's head during the England v Wales game, and in his concussed state he might choose a better captain for the rest of the tournament.  Like Moody or Hartley for example.  I doubt it will happen though...

Oink oink.

Martin Johnson's EPS Squad?

Martin Johnson is set to name his EPS squad on Wednesday so naturally everyone is starting to tout around who they think he should include.  The big question is whether Johnno is building his Six Nations squad with one eye on the World Cup next year, or if he's got his old man glasses perched on the end of his squished up nose and is shortsightedly only looking as far as the final game away against France on 20 March in this year's Six Nations tournament.

Decisions, decisions...

There are only eighteen games until England trot out for their opening game in the World Cup next year, so the onus is on Martin Johnson to build a World Cup winning squad now whilst blooding a few youngsters on the way.  The next round of Autumn Internationals is too late to start trying new combinations, and Johnson won't want to take a bunch of rookies to New Zealand next year.  Changes have to be made after England's dire performances in November, as it's not as if those selected did anything but underachieve in the Autumn Internationals.  The dismal results against Australia, New Zealand and the scrappy win against Argentina built an excellent case for an injection of up and coming young talent into the starting fifteen for England's opening Six Nations game against Wales, as surely the young guns can't do any worse than the old guard, can they?  Saying that, certain key veterans must remain, and by this I mean Simon Shaw who is arguably the best England lock at the moment at the ripe old age of 36.

Then there is the question about the captaincy.  Is Steve Borthwick the man to inspire and lead England to a World Cup win next year?  I have to agree with Stuart Barnes:  No.  So now has be the time to think about changing the captain then, surely?  Yes, but I doubt it will happen.  Who could step into the breach and take the reins from Borthwick?  Dylan Hartley?  Possibly, but maybe it's a little too soon for him.  Lewis Moody?  Not exactly Leicester's captain week in and week out.  Jonny Wilkinson?  Er, really?

Anyway, enough of all the talking.  Here's the players who I think Martin Johnson should include with a view to both the Six Nations and World Cup, including a few possibly more surprising selections...

Dan Cole - Leicester tighthead and a man in some serious form, not just in his man-of-the-match demolition of the Wasps' scrum in last Saturday's game.

Tim Payne - England's incumbent loosehead.  Has to be included with the current plight of the England front row.

Duncan Bell - Probably will be picked at tighthead, but I'd start with Cole against Wales if I was Martin Johnson.

Jon Golding - Newcastle loosehead, learning under the muscular wing of Carl Hayman.  Great ball carrier, tackler, great in the loose and excellent in the scrum. 

Dylan Hartley - A stronger carrier of the ball and decent line out work from the Saints hooker will secure him a place.

Steve Thompson - Included as what other options do England have at hooker?

Simon Shaw - Excellent at line out and in the loose, and showing deft hands in offload against Quins to line up try.  Has to be included despite being nearly ready to draw his pension.

Steve Borthwick (c) - Will be picked because he is the captain.  I can't see any other reason.

Louis Deacon - Will be picked because he's a dependable, if not dynamic lock, and Martin Johnson likes that.

Courtney Lawes - Has to get some real game time in this year's Six Nations, and not just coming on for ten minutes in a match that has already been won.  Lawes is most at home as a lock, but his versatility shows as he has played at flanker for Northampton this season.  He needs to play for England now so he's not undercooked come the World Cup.

Joe Worsley - He of the massive melon shaped head is fit again and will undoubtedly be in contention.

Lewis Moody - The shining star of the Autumn International debacle and one of the first names on the team sheet.

Hendre Fourie - Bit of a wildcard selection for the excellent Leeds Carnegie openside flanker who now qualifies by residency.

Jordan Crane - Solid, dependable, great carrier of the ball at the back of the scrum.

James Haskell - A more dynamic option at 8 than Crane

Tom Croft - Athletic, pacey, versatile back row forward who is now back from injury.  Will he be picked despite his recent injury lay off?

Steffon Armitage - Specialist openside flanker.

Danny Care - Definitely.

Paul Hodgson - Absolutely.

Ben Youngs - Hopefully. Performance after great performance from the excellent Leicester scrum half who seems to excel at every facet in his role of scrum-half.

Mark Cueto - Versatile winger, can switch to full back.

Mathew Tait - Is there any room at the inn for the versatile Tait?  He's not really been given much of a chance lately in an England shirt, and I'm wondering if he is going to be left out in the cold again.

Toby Flood - A bit of a question mark over his kicking but it seems to be improving, and he adds flair to the backline.  Can play at ten or twelve.

Jonny Wilkinson - He might not be Super Jonny any more, but if he can capture some of the form he's displayed at Toulon this season then he should start at ten.

Nick Easter - Big man in the boiler room.

Chris Ashton - The Northampton wing is currently enjoying some scintillating form, he is the top try scorer in the Guinness Premiership and is playing himself into a place.

Ugo Monye - Lions winger, pacey, will definitely be included.

Dan Hipkiss - Solid but not exceptional but will be included to add some grunt to outside centre.

Riki Flutey - Straight back into the starting XV in the Six Nations.

Shane Geraghty - Inventive, slightly off the boil in the AIs (but wasn't everyone?).  Geraghty needs more game time like Courtney Lawes.

Ben Foden - The Northampton full back is still making too many errors so he probably won't be in the starting line up, but he is one for the squad.

Delon Armitage - Seemingly back to his best for London Irish after being sidelined with a dodgy shoulder, and a definite starter at full back after the calamities we had to endure in the AIs

Danny Cipriani - Starting to show a few glimmers of the form from a couple of seasons ago. His goal kicking isn't good enough to play in his preferred position of fly half, but he could be selected to play at full back. Probably one for the Saxons.

And here are a couple that should be left out in the cold:

Andy Goode - One word: No. He shouldn't be included.

Matt Banahan - I don't think he's fit enough or fast enough to successfully play international rugby.

So those are my thoughts, and I've probably left out somebody crucial so please let me know what you think. 

Who will Martin Johnson pick?  We will see on Wednesday...

Are England Worth it?

Tickets to watch England at Twickenham: £71 x 2

Petrol: £60*

Car Parking: £20

Food and Drink: £50

A winning England performance: Priceless?

No, this isn't a Mastercard advert.

With my average mathematics skills, I calculate that all that tots up to £272 for two people to watch England play at Twickenham. I know this to be true, as I made this very trip with my Dad to see them take on New Zealand a couple of weeks ago.

My question is: with the standard of the England team and the rugby they are playing at the moment, is it actually worth all that money to go and watch them play?

Sure, the atmosphere and the occasion is something special, but the rugby really isn't. I'd get as much entertainment (if not more) by going to watch my local team play, although sadly the results at Headingley Carnegie generally go the same way as they do for England at the moment: not well.

I've entered the ballot for tickets to watch England take on Ireland in the 6 Nations, which to be honest is the only game I'm interested in watching live.  At least Ireland will bring some quality and excitement to proceedings even if England won't.

So are England really worth it? I'm not too sure...

* Return journey to Leeds