Where Did it All Go So Right for England?

With just days to go before England's final November showdown with South Africa, the media are collectively cooing about the resurgence of English rugby on the international stage.  England swept aside the much-hyped Australia, sealing their second consecutive win over the Wallabies in a year before going on to out muscle Samoa last weekend.  Whisper it quietly, but if Martin Johnson's men can beat the World Champions at Twickenham on Saturday then things seem to be coming together nicely for next year's Rugby World Cup in New Zealand.  But hush now, let's not talk about that yet.  It's one game at a time don't forget.

OK, so England lost 26-16 at the hands of Richie McCaw's All Blacks in the opening Autumn fixture, but what a difference a year makes.  This time last November I travelled down to Twickenham to watch England crumble at the hands of a lacklustre New Zealand side.  Everything seemed to be rotten in the England camp, the team was booed off at half-time against Argentina after arguably the most depressing England performance in years before they scraped to an unimpressive 16-9 win.  Even though England won that day, it was probably the lowest point of Johnson's reign.  The day that rugby died.  Calls were ringing out for heads to roll in the RFU, most notably that of Rob Andrew, England's elite Director of Rugby.  The fans were angered by Johnson's staunch refusal to play arguably some of the most dazzling up and coming talents the country had in the form of Courtney Lawes, Chris Ashton and Ben Foden.  In short, last year's Autumn Internationals were an unmitigated disaster.

However, new blood was finally introduced and started flowing in the England ranks this summer.  In June, the side notched up their first win in Australia since the 2003 World Cup final and fast forward to the present to see England playing instinctively and on the front foot.  Ben Youngs, Toby Flood and Chris Ashton were instrumental in putting the Wallabies to the sword again, this time on home turf.  These are the same names the country was screaming out for this time last year.

So did Martin Johnson have his strategy right all along or was the former England skipper more than a little bit lucky?  It's an interesting question, and I'm sure Johnson will argue his plan was to introduce young players when he did after setting the foundations of a solid England side.  Don't forget, those foundations were built around ex-skipper Steve Borthwick, a towering presence in the line-out but hardly cast in the mould of a modern day dynamic second-row, like Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, or Courtney Lawes.

People utter the words "seed-change" and talk about a new England as if Martin Johnson has morphed into a grinning Tony Blair circa 1997, peddling his wares about a bright future and salivating over the prospect of getting his ginormous hands on the Webb Ellis trophy yet again.

To win a world cup a team has to be the best in the world for six weeks.  Just six weeks.  All these November tests and summer tours are mere canapes to the main course which kicks off at Eden Park, Auckland in nine months time.  My old history teacher always used to tell me that history is written by the winners.  No-one will remember England's successes from this month if they crash and burn in New Zealand next year.  And expectations are high: England were World Cup winners in 2003 and losing finalists in Paris four years later.  The tournament is being held in New Zealand and anything but the sight of a triumphant All Blacks skipper Richie McCaw clutching the precious gold trophy will spell a disaster for the home crowd.  Another epic New Zealand Rugby World Cup choke.

But similar expectation is starting to build once again for England's hopes of being crowned World Champions.  Fans are so eager to hope and dream that two, hopefully three wins this November signals the World Cup could be, just maybe, coming back home.

This week, England coach Johnson was keen to play down the resurgence of his team, despite the fact they will start as favourites over the Springboks even though they are one place lower in the world rankings.

"Things happen very quickly, expectations change," he told BBC Sport.

"A couple of weeks ago, on the Friday before we played Australia, everyone was talking about them as the best team in the world - and they had a point. By the Wednesday they'd lost two games and suddenly they were in crisis.

"What this autumn series has highlighted is any of these teams is capable of beating the other one."

I'll give him that.  Teams are in a crucial stage of final testing and preparation before next year's ultimate showdown.  Ireland stepped up a few gears last weekend against New Zealand and if they hadn't switched off at crucial moments the result could have been oh so different.  And then to Murrayfield, where Scotland pulled off the shock of the weekend, edging past South Africa 21-17.  Teams are starting to stake their claim for World Cup glory, but all are still facing the daunting task of toppling New Zealand, Tri-Nations champions and ranked number one in the world, from their seemingly insurmountable position at the top.


So has England's resurgence been timed to perfection and can they climb the mountain to the World Cup final next October?  Has Martin Johnson had a plan all along or did he bow to public pressure and change the way England play?  Under skipper Lewis Moody, England look vibrant, full of dynamism, instinct and passion.  Shooting stars like Ashton, Foden, Youngs, Lawes and Dan Cole have all made the step up to international rugby to name but a few.  But what if England lose on Saturday?  Will we all be back to square one?

I don't think so.  England have been in a period of transition for the past two years but signs are they are now leaping out of the pit of despair, let alone clambering up the side.  The old guard is stepping aside for the new.  Whether it was Johnson's strategy all along or if he lucked out in a major way - or even sold his soul to the Devil - I don't care.  I'm starting to believe in England again, one game at a time.

Six Nations Week 5: Previews and Predictions

Wales v Italy

Wales haven't been firing in this tournament and their line out and scrum have been less than effective.  However the return of scrum-half Mike Phillips and loosehead Gethin Jenkins is a boon for coach Warren Gatland, and 18-year old Tom Prydie becomes both the youngest man to play for Wales and the youngest ever to play in the Six Nations when he starts on the wing.  Whoever loses this match will be vying for the wooden spoon with Scotland, and the losers will take home the booby prize if Scotland overturn the Irish in the final game to be played at Croke Park. 

Italy have been hit by three injuries: Centre Andrea Masi, lock Carlo Del Fava and flanker Paul Derbyshire are all out.  Despite Italy's win against Scotland and rallying last 15 minutes against France, Nick Mallet's men won't have enough to get past Wales at a pulsating Millennium Stadium.

My prediction:  Wales by 18.


Ireland v Scotland

Declan Kidney and his Ireland team only have an outside chance of winning the championship, and that relies on England tripping up their rivals France later on in Paris.  But the Triple Crown is there for the taking, and if Ireland beat Andy Robinson's Scotland they will notch up their fifth home nations clean sweep in seven years.

The Scots are propping up the table with a solitary point, courtesy of their tedious draw against England last weekend.  With Ireland gunning for the prize to crown their final match at Croke Park and Scotland's try-scoring drought, I can only see this game going one way.

My prediction:  Ireland by 12.


France v England

A revamped England will run out in Paris in the tournament finale, but I think favourites France will pack too much of a punch for the visitors.  Ben Foden and Chris Ashton, team mates at Northampton, will hopefully inject some pace and cutting edge into the England backline.  We know their link-up play is in fine form after watching them in the Guinness Premiership and Heineken Cup this season.  Lewis Moody returns from a brief stint on the bench, and he will lead out England in the absence of Steve Borthwick.  Mike Tindall starts in the centre, probably to try and contain the rampaging Mathieu Bastereaud. 

France are oozing class in every position at the moment.  Morgan Parra, Imanol Harinordoquy and Clement Poitreneaud are but three of their top class players in a team dripping with talent.  The French have been firing this Six Nations, and they will be too much for Martin Johnson's stuttering England team.

My prediction:  France to win by 16.

Six Nations Week 2: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

The Good:

The Wales v Scotland game.  An incredible last five minutes in a match with more twists than one of Adam Jones' bouncing ringlets.

Adam Jones: curly wurly

Dan Parks: back from the wilderness (or Glasgow in his case).

Shane Williams.  The man who turned the match for Wales.  He showed great skill to put Lee Byrne in for a try, calmly caught a tricky high ball under pressure when Scotland were dominating, and he bagged the winning score to boot.

An excellent all round game for France.  Well, with the exception of their line-out.  A great game for France's Mathieu Bastereuad, Yannick Jauzion and Morgan Parra to name but three.

Italy, who matched England and made a real game of it.  Six Nations whipping boys they are not.  A special mention to Italy number eight and man of the match Alessandro Mani.  Who needs Sergio Parisse?  Luke McClean also had a good game at full-back for the Azzurri.

Jonny Wilkinson, who passed the 500 point mark in the Six Nations competition, and used his experience to stretch England's lead near to the death.

The Bad:

Scotland commiting rugby hari kari against Wales in the last 10 minutes.  Two sin binnings for the Scots and 17 points to Wales.  Does that remind you of anyone, Alun Wyn Jones?  Then again, Scotland's loss was due in great part to...

Referee George Clancy, who allowed an extra passage of play in the Wales v Scotland game even though the clock had already reached 80 minutes.  With the teams tied on 24-24, Shane Williams scorched over the try line for Wales.  If it were a game of football, Wales would be Manchester United.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson:  mildly irritated.

Ireland's performance against France - or lack of it.  Last week Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team as "mediocre" in their 29-11 win over Italy.  This weekend in defeat, he downgraded that to "poor".  Personally, I'd have gone for "abysmal".

Yannick Jauzion crosses the line for France

France's faultering lineout.  The only negative in their 33-10 victory over Ireland.

England kicking the ball away aimlessly at almost every opportunity.  Martin Johnson's men looked about as threatening as a bunch of bumbling marshmallows during large parts of the game against Italy.  Oh and how England totally failed to ram home their advantage when Castro was in the bin completely mystified me.  Another very disappointing England performance.  There's plenty for them to work on.  Again.

Dylan Hartley's line-out throwing.  Very poor.  I found myself being thankful when Steve Thompson stomped onto the pitch.  Yes, it was that bad.

The Ugly:

Scotland's Thom Evans being stretchered off the pitch and subsequently undergoing neck surgery.  Get well soon Thom.

Jerry Flannery's impromptu 'can-can' kick on Alexis Pallison. France scrum-half Morgan Parra is no doubt thrilled that Flannery backed him up after Parra claimed Ireland "cheat every weekend".

Six Nations Previews and Predictions - Week 2

It's Six Nations Predictions time again.

Will Ireland's recent love affair with the Six Nations continue to flourish in Paris this Valentine's weekend?  Will Scotland lose their hearts in Wales, or will England's red roses woo the Italian crowds? 

Here are my previews and predictions for this weekend:

France v Ireland
This game is already being tipped as the championship decider.  The result of this match will crush the Grand Slam hopes of one of this year's main protagonists, and it's a real shame this fixture isn't being saved until the final weekend. 

France won their opening game against Scotland 18-9, with human wrecking ball Mathieu Bastereaud twice bulldozing his way over the line.  Ireland looked rusty against an Italy side lacking in precision which also boasts arguably the most turgid backline in international rugby.  Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll described his team's performance as "mediocre" despite their 29-11 victory.  France's scrum destroyed Scotland, although the return of Stephen Ferris into the Ireland pack is welcome to Ireland's perceived area of weakness.  France are without Aurelien Rougerie and Benjamin Fall who miss the clash through injury so Toulouse's Vincent Clerc and Brive's Alexis Palisson take their places.  O'Gara retains the number ten shirt for Ireland, and Keith Earls makes his first Six Nations start. 

Ireland last won in Paris ten years ago in 2000, when Brian O'Driscoll's brilliant hat-trick helped his team to a 27-25 victory.  Last year, Ireland beat France 30-21 at Croke Park.  This is undoubtedly the game of the weekend, if not the tournament.  It's a tough one to call.  My heart says Ireland but my head says France.  I know it's Valentine's weekend, but my head is overruling my heart on this one.

My prediction:  France to win by 8.

Wales v Scotland
Wales clawed England back to 20-17 in the last few minutes of their battle at Twickenham last Saturday, after Alun Wyn Jones' thoughtless trip cost the men in red 17 points during his stint in the sin bin.  Despite Wales seizing the momentum in the second half England were 30-17 victors.  Wyn Jones will play this weekend after Wales coach Warren Gatland threatened to drop the lock, and the only two changes in the Wales side see Leigh Halfpenny and Jonathan Thomas come in for Tom James and Luke Charteris.  Wales are still missing Lions front row maestros Gethin Jenkins and Matthew Rees which is a blow, especially after Scotland's scrum crumbled against France last week.  Wales need to reduce their error count and not let Scotland off the hook as they did with a series of missed penalty kicks against England.  Oh, and that infamous sin-binning.  I hope to see more from Jamie Roberts and the wonderful James Hook this week.

Scotland welcome back prop Euan Murray to bolster their scrum, and fly-half Dan Parks and Rory Lamont also return.  Godman had a pretty God awful game last weekend and is replaced by Parks who has enjoyed a good season so far with Glasgow. Super sidestepping king Max Evans is also dropped, as is Moray Low.  Scotland coach Andy Robinson has added extra spice to the encounter by preventing Wales from closing the Millennium Stadium roof for the match.  It's all within the rules of course, and I don't blame Robinson for stopping Wales from getting any sort of extra advantage.  To get anything from this game the brothers Sean and Rory Lamont need to put to away their chances against the Welsh.  There were positives from the France game as Scotland did break the line, but then the attacks fizzled out and Scotland came away empty handed.

This is a must win match for both sides.  With home advantage on their side, I'm going for Wales.

My prediction:  Wales to win by 12.
   
Italy v England
Serial wooden spoon winners Italy host a revitalised England on Valentine's Day.  If rugby be the food of love, play on.  Or something like that.  Martin Johnson has made two changes to his starting XV with Dan Cole getting the nod ahead of David Wilson, and a fit again Riki Flutey pushing Toby Flood to the bench.  The replacements haven't been named yet (at the time of writing), and both Steve Borthwick and Simon Shaw have been struck with illness.  Is that Courtney Lawes I see hovering near the starting XV?  Don't be daft, it's Louis Deacon.  Lawes was originally sent back to Northampton but was then recalled, and he will now stay with the England squad.  Shontayne Hape has also been doing the rugby hokey cokey - in, out, in, out - and might yet get to shake it all about with an appearance from the bench.

Italy are without injured lock Carlo Del Fava and scrum-half Simon Picone.  Sergio Parisse is out for the entire competition due to a knee ligament injury.  Italy coach Nick Mallet will confirm his team to face England on Friday 12th, but I expect to see pretty much the same starting line up as last weekend, injuries aside.  Craig "Controversy" Gower was pretty anonymous in Italy's 29-11 defeat to Ireland, and the entire Italian backline was so ineffective England really should stamp their authority on this game.

My prediction:  England to win by 25 points.

So what do you think?  Are my predictions right this week or am I wearing my rose-tinted spectacles?

Six Nations Top Trumps: Scotland

“We are in control of our destiny. We control whether we win or lose. If we attack well and control the scoreboard and then defend well, we’ll win the game. It’s down to us. It’s not about the opposition. It’s not about the referee. It’s about what we do." said Scotland head coach Andy Robinson.

Robinson, the first English man to coach Scotland's national rugby squad, has successfully moved on from his disastrous tenure as England coach and has picked up the reins north of the border.  Eyebrows were raised when Robinson landed the job, but after Scotland's 9-8 win over Australia at Murrayfield in November, a narrow 9-6 defeat by Argentina and a 23-10 victory over Fiji, there were reasons to be cheerful.  With less players to pick from, Robinson's chances of making any selection howlers (see Jamie Noon and Mike Tindall) are limited, and after licking his wounds and rebuilding his reputation slowly but surely as Head Coach of Edinburgh, Robinson is once again in the international spotlight.

So how will Robinson's Scotland side fare in this year's Six Nations?  Here is what I think:

Scrum: 61/100.
The forwards have to perform against the might of the French and Welsh scrums in particular.  If Scotland are to stand any chance of climbing out of the bottom half of the table this year then their tight five have to create a decent platform.  British and Irish Lion Euan Murray will miss the opening game against France as he no longer plays on Sundays due to his religious beliefs.

Line-Out: 65/100.
Lions hooker Ross Ford has Nathan Hines and Alastair Kellock to aim at in the line out.  Not bad.  Scotland need to win all their set piece, especially as their back line isn't as dazzling as the other nations.  Well, with the exception of Italy.

Defence:76/100.
Strong defence won the day in Scotland's brilliant victory over Australia. It was a low scoring game but it was far from dull.  Scotland poured their heart and soul into the game and repeatedly put their bodies on the line.  If they can do this in the Six Nations then they won't be a simple walk over for their competitors.

Attacking Flair: 62/100.
Thom and Max Evans and Sean Lamont are the main attacking threats in the Scottish backline.  Chris Paterson isn't exactly brimming with flair, but he is a solid presence at full back and has a good boot which will help gain territory.  Captain Chris Cusiter is a nippy scrum-half who loves to break the line.

Stadium: 67/100.
Murrayfield.  Capacity 67,500.

Snore Factor: 45/100.
Scotland don't have the world famous stars or the flair and flamboyance of other teams, but under the influence of coach Andy Robinson they have demonstrated guts and firm belief in their abilities.  With belief comes the confidence to try things, and this will make for entertaining rugby.

Phwoargh factor:  78/100.
Chris Cusiter is a curly haired cutie and a big favourite of mine.  Thom and Max Evans and Hugo Southwell all starred in this year's Dieux Du Stade calendar and showed off their six packs (amongst other things).  All very easy on the eye as I'm sure all the ladies will agree.

Scandal Potential: 20/100.
Erm, I can't think of anything really.  It will be a massive result if they can turn over France in their opening game, but I wouldn't call it a scandal.

As for the standings:

Last year: 5th.
Prediction for this year: 5th.